ALL SPORT PUNTING DUNGEON
SATURDAY, MAY 7, 2016
Racing at GOLD COAST with the penetrometer reading 4.56, hence currently looking at a GOOD (4) surface.
RAIL: +1M (1000M – 400M), TRUE (REMAINDER). We have elected to dabble on some specific races in the sunshine state today with some quality racing on the Gold Coast. Hoping for an even track, pace dependant, however expecting no disadvantage to be on pace. As always, be sure to keep a close eye on the track and how it’s playing in the early races for best guide.
Race 1: We start the day with a benchmark 85 over 1200m and think this race sets up well for KUDERO who can take advantage of the good gate (2) and hopefully be right on the pace or very close to and give many of the main chances something to chase here. Will appreciate the improved track condition here, now a GOOD 4 and looks great each way value at $11+ with SPORTSBET.
SUGGEST: KUDERO (EACH WAY) @ $11+ (CONFIDENCE 30%)
Race 2: Benchmark 80 over 1800m and will run with one who now gets to the right trip and is capable of pushing forward from a decent gate and that’s **COL ‘N’ LIL**. Gets in very nicely at the weights given history, with only 54.5kg on her back after the very handy 3kg claim. Nothing too scary here in terms of opposition, hence the $5.50+ on offer with UNIBET looks as attractive each way investment and as a result will make a BEST VALUE bet of the day.
SUGGEST: **COL ‘N’ LIL** (EACH WAY) @ $5.50+ (CONFIDENCE 40%)
Race 3: Group 3 for the two year olds and although IMPENDING looked good on debut and will most likely be hard to beat here, not interested in taking $1.50+ on one we simply don’t enough about yet, on the back of one run. A watch and learn for mine.
SUGGEST: NO BET AT THIS STAGE (CONFIDENCE 0%)
Race 4: Listed event for the three year old fillies and reckon this is the race FALKENBERG has been waiting forward. The query is there actually looks to be a fair bit of pace up front here which may test the leaders/in pacers, and is also drawn awkwardly in barrier 12. So, we’ll need an ounce of luck, but hoping with a strong tempo up front Browne will be able to slot in just off the pace, which could be the perfect spot given track and tempo. Happy to play @ a respectable $4.60+ with UBET and UNIBET, with main dangers CIRCULAR, IMPOSING LASS and QUEEN OF WANDS.
SUGGEST: FALKENBERG (WIN / EACH WAY) @ 4.60+, FIRST FOUR (1, 6, 8 / 9 / F / F), (1, 6, 8 / F / F / 9) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 5: Very open listed event for the fillies and mares over 1200m and at this stage will let this one go, given the plethora of racing on across the nation. As usual, keep a close eye on facebook and twitter for any updates, should we get keen on anything closer to jump time.
SUGGEST: NO BET AT THIS STAGE (CONFIDENCE 0%)
Race 6: Now for the Listed Prime Minister’s Cup over 1400m and a good, even and competitive field assembled. Bit of guesswork with the likes of AKAVOROUN first up after a break, more than capable of blowing these away if 100% ready to fire, while the two top weights look sure to be right in the finish once again in HOPFGARTEN and WORTHY CAUSE. Deep race, was originally looking to steer clear, but have found one at big odds in *MAHICAN* who I think is worthy of a smaller each way play @ 50/1+ with UBET and UNIBET. Given the odds will make a BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day. Main dangers the three mentioned above, although doesn’t end there.
SUGGEST: *MAHICAN* (EACH WAY) @ $51+, FIRST FOUR (1, 2, 4 / F / F / 14), (F / 1, 2, 4 / F / 14) (CONFIDENCE 25%)
Race 7: Now for the feature, the Group 2 Hollindale Stakes to be run over 1800m and a great field assembled as you’d expect. Keen to play around two in of the Waller runners here in particular, notably SPIRITJIM @ $12+ (UBET) and one of our faves in *STRAWBERRY BOY* @ $21+ with SPORTSBET and BET365. The former is a top class European galloper with form around the world class Ming Dynasty. Trialled well and although will probably be better after a run or two, expecting a big run first time in Australia. While *STRAWBERRY BOY* doesn’t know how to run a bad race, is always tough, which is key on a track like this and went close on this track for us earlier in the year when gobbled up late by the ultra-classy Lucky Hussler. There aren’t any Lucky Hussler’s here. Given the odds will make a BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day. Finally, want a small play on longshot HONEY TOAST @ $51+ with BET365, UNIBET and SPORTSBET. Is obviously up in class here, but doing nothing wrong and deserves the step up to Group 2 company here. Main dangers HAURAKI who has been heavily backed (hence why we are getting big value elsewhere), OLD NORTH and VOLKSTOK’N’BARRELL
SUGGEST: SPRITJIM (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $12+, *STRAWBERRY BOY* (EACH WAY) @ $21+, HONEY TOAST (EACH WAY – SECONDARY) @ $51+, FIRST FOUR (1, 2, 4 / F / F / 6, 10, 13) (CONFIDENCE 30%)
Race 8: We finish with a Group 3 for the three year olds over 1200m and like one at juicy odds here in **BRIGADOON RISE** @ $13+ with SPORTSBET and UNIBET. Given the odds will make a BEST VALUE bet of the day. Want to play each way there, in addition to a WIN only play on arguably the class horse in the race here in SANTA ANA LANE. Suggest a WIN only play at $3.50+ with UNIBET. Main danger most definitely TAKEDOWN who was only 0.6L behind Japonisme/Counterattack last time. Super form for this, hence a must for quaddies/multies, or similar.
SUGGEST: **BRIGADOON RISE** (EACH WAY) @ $13+, SANTA ANA LANE (WIN) @ $3.50+, FIRST FOUR (1 / 4 / F / 16), (F / 1, 4 / F / 1, 4, 16) (CONFIDENCE 40%)
Average odds a juicy $19.18+ per suggested runner!
** BEST VALUE **: COL ‘N’ LIL @ $5.50+, BRIGADOON RISE @ $13+
*BEST LONGSHOTS*: STRAWBERRY BOY @ $21+, MAHICAN @ $51+