ALL SPORT PUNTING DUNGEON
SATURDAY, JUNE 11, 2016
The return to racing at EAGLE FARM after last week’s false start, with the penetrometer reading 5.1, hence looking at a GOOD (4) surface.
RAIL: +3M (ENTIRE CIRCUIT). We head to EAGLE FARM with the rail out +3M after the meeting was cancelled last week due to monsoonal rain. New track so always a slight risk in terms of how it’ll play, however a brilliant day’s racing with 4 x Group 1s, 4 x Group 2, 2 x Listed events. Hoping for an even track, but as always, be sure to keep a close eye on the track and how it’s playing in the early races for best guide.
As outlined below and has become a common trend most weeks, best odds consistently with BET365. In addition as communicated many green book opportunities have opened up with AFL/NRL matches, hence no better time to sign up if you currently don’t bet with them. Be sure to sign up via the link below, allowing us to try and push for additional incentives, free bets, etc along the way when opportunities present:
Race 1: We start with a listed event for the two year old fillies over 1200m and confident we can get off to a winning start in the form of **INVINCIBELLA** who has caught the eye at past couple and is ready to head into the winner’s stall for the first time, following two narrow loses. Hard to beat @ $4.20+ with BET365 and UBET. Given the odds and the difficult nature of the day, will make a BEST VALUE bet of the day. Doesn’t get any easier, that’s for sure. Main dangers CHIPANDA, ahead of MY COUNTRY.
SUGGEST: **INVINCIBELLA** (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $4.20+, FIRST FOUR (3, 9 / 13 / F / F), (3, 9 / F / F / 13) (CONFIDENCE 40%)
Race 2: Listed event over the mile and keen on **PAJARO** here @ $10+ with BET365 and UBET once again. Was super last time when poorly weighted, however on this occasion meets some key rivals better at the weights and should be better suited at Eagle Farm as opposed to Doomben. Represents excellent each way value and given odds will make a BEST VALUE bet of the day. Main dangers VOLKSTOK’N’BARRELL and AMOVATIO.
SUGGEST: **PAJARO** (EACH WAY) @ $10+, FIRST FOUR (1, 2 / F / F / 11) (CONFIDENCE 30%)
Race 3: Group 2 for the fillies and mares over 1400m and no surprise that the ultra-impressive GHISONI is all the rage, at a skinny $1.75+. Obviously, the one to beat but is drawn awkwardly and as a result fellow on pacers may just look to make her work, given an easy run means it’s all over. For this reason, prefer to play through multies instead of big standalone investment. Instead, think better value lies with the Waller duo of AMICUS @ $14+ (UBET) and TELEPATHIC @ $12+ (most operators). Main danger GHISONI, ahead of MY POPETTE who I’d be keener on if drawn a little better.
SUGGEST: AMICUS (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $13+, TELEPATHIC (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $12+, FIRST FOUR (3 / 9 / F / F), (roving 1, 3, 9 / F), (roving 3, 9, 10 / F) (CONFIDENCE 30%)
Race 4: Group 2 Queensland Guineas for the three year old over the mile (1600m). Similarly here, TSARITSA looks the one to beat and is sure to be hard to beat, however very skinny odds at ~ $2.60 with most operators. Like usual, prefer to play through multies/skinny early quaddie leg, instead of a large standalone investment, given decent opposition assembled here. As a result, think better value lies with TIVACI @ $10+ (BET365, SPORTSBET, LUXBET), ahead of MR INDIVIDUAL @ $21+ with BET365 and UBET. Main danger TSARITSA, ahead of PERFECT DARE and SHOTACROSS THE BOW.
SUGGEST: TIVACI (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $10+, MR INDIVIDUAL (EACH WAY) @ $21+, FIRST FOUR (boxed 2, 7, 9, 10, 17), (7, 10, 17 / 7, 10, 17 / F / 2, 9) (CONFIDENCE 30%)
Race 5: Group 2 QTC Cup over 1300m and a very competitive affair. Slight lean TARGET IN SIGHT @ $7.50+ with SPORTSBET, ahead of SNIPPET’S LAND @ $8+ with CROWNBET and UNIBET. TARGET IN SIGHT I’ve always rated highly and has been brilliant in past few runs in the highest of grade. Form around Malaguerra, Dothraki, Japonisme and Music Magnate is definitely good enough for this. SNIPPET’S LAND was super last time, reeling in the hard to catch Religify. Main dangers SPILL THE BEANS and FEDERAL.
SUGGEST: TARGET IN SIGHT (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $7.50+, SNIPPET’S LAND (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $8+, FIRST FOUR (10, 11 / F / F / 2, 4), (10, 11 / 2, 4 / F / F) (CONFIDENCE 30%)
Race 6: Now for the Group 2 Brisbane Cup over 2400m and this looks extremely tough with not much between many of the leading chances. Slight lean to the kiwi invader BENZINI @ $9+ (BET365, SPORTSBET, UNIBET) who was super on Australian debut last time and is drawn to get a better run here. Main dangers REAL LOVE, PUCCINI, SIR JOHN HAWKWOOD, JUNOOB and ECUADOR. Tough race!
SUGGEST: BENZINI (EACH WAY) @ $9+, FIRST FOUR (1, 2, 3, 5, 6 / 1, 2, 3, 5, 6 / 1, 2, 3, 5, 6 / 8) (CONFIDENCE 25%)
Race 7: Now for the first of four straight Group 1s to complete a brilliant card of racing, starting with the Group 1 J.J Atkins for the two year olds over the mile and another big and open field. Slight lean SOUCHEZ @ $5.25+ (BET365) providing he can start better than last time. J Mac should give the 2YO colt a nice run in transit and be hard to beat. Best value JAWS OF STEEL up from Melbourne for Robbie Laing with a tidy $16+ on offer. Whilst, longshot chance to *OINK* @ $71+ with SPORTSBET and UNIBET. Given the odds, will make a BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day.
SUGGEST: SOUCHEZ (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $5.25+, JAWS OF STEEL (EACH WAY) @ $16+, *OINK* (EACH WAY) @ $71+, FIRST FOUR (F / 3 / F / 5, 8) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 8: Now for the Group 1 Queensland Derby and yet another very big, competitive field. Slight lean here to ESCHIELE @ $8+ with BET365. Was making very good late ground last time, before being stopping in his tracks with 50m to go. Also, want a smaller play around MULTIFACETS at a juicy $34+ with each of BET365, LUXBET and UNIBET. Has been unlucky in recent times and can improve here at a price. Most wary of EAGLE WAY who if drawn a little better would have been top pick, as well as HOWARD BE THY NAME, ENCOSTA LINE, ETYMOLOGY and MACKINTOSH. Very good Derby.
SUGGEST: ESCHEILE (EACH WAY) @ $8+, MULTIFACETS (EACH WAY) @ $34+, FIRST FOUR (1, 2, 3, 6, 7 / F / 1, 2, 3, 6, 7 / 11, 13) (CONFIDENCE 30%)
Race 9: And now for the feature, the Group 1 Stradbroke and what a ripper! Quality field with so many legitimate winning chances. Lucky in running and how the track is playing sure to play a part in the finish. Taking all current markets into consideration, have come out with a slight lean towards the ever consistent MALAGUERRA at a generous $12+ with UNIBET. Would be wary without a good hoop aboard, given there is sure to be pace in the race, by Bowman will be able to assess early and decide where to sit from the good gate (3). Just ahead of COUNTERATTACK who looks primed to run the race of his life @ $8+ with BET365. Given the odds and suggested plays, probably leaning towards a WIN only investment here, in addition to a smaller play each way on DELECTATION @ $26+ with SPORTSBET. Not in great at the weights, but looks to be going well without luck and is capable at any level. Main dangers AZKADELLIA (hard to beat but rock bottom odds $3.30 most operators), MUSIC MAGNATE, CHARLIE BOY and UNDER THE LOUVRE.
SUGGEST: MALAGUERRA (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $12+, COUNTERATTACK (WIN) @ $8+, DELECTATION (EACH WAY) @ $26+, FIRST FOUR (4, 5, 6, 7 / 2, 3, 12 / F / 2, 3, 12) (CONFIDENCE 30%)
Race 10: And we finish with the Group 1 Queensland Oaks which was supposed to be run last week before the heavens opened. Was keen on playing TAVI BAY last week given the expected bog track and bad barrier, however not as keen on top of the ground, where the barrier will become more of an issue. Another Group 1, another big field, another ultra-competitive one. Slight lean here with FALKENBERG @ $8+ with you guessed it BET365! Just ahead of DAWNIE PERFECT @ $10+ (SPORTSBET) who would have been top pick had she drawn a gate. Still want something on, despite barrier 22! Finally, a smaller more speculative play on *MOUNT OMEI* @ $51+ with most/all operators. We almost landed with SEBRING SALLY at 250/1 a few weeks’ back, so hopefully the stablemate can cause a shock here. Given the odds will make another BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day. Long list of dangers including TAVI BAY, PROVOCATIVE, KEBEDE, IMPOSING LASS, SEBRING SALLY (respect), ALASKAN ROSE and AMBIENCE. Deep finish.
SUGGEST: FALKENBERG (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $8+, DAWNIE PERFECT (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $10+, *MOUNT OMEI* (EACH WAY) @ $51+, FIRST FOUR (1, 3, 4, 6, 8, 14, 19 / 10, 12, 18 / F / 10, 12, 18) (CONFIDENCE 30%)
Average odds a juicy $16.73+ per suggested runner!
** BEST VALUE **: INVINCIBELLA @ $4.20+, PAJARO @ $10+
*BEST LONGSHOTS*: OINK @ $71+, MOUNT OMEI @ $51+