ALL SPORT PUNTING DUNGEON
SATURDAY, JUNE 11, 2015
Racing at FLEMINGTON with the penetrometer reading 4.93, so currently looking at a SOFT (5) surface.
RAIL: +6M (ENTIRE CIRCUIT). Racing at Flemington with the rail out +6M. Given rain, expect them to get off the fence, especially as the day goes on. Hoping for an even track, pace dependant, be sure to keep a close eye on the track and how it’s playing in the early races for best guide.
Race 1: Start with the two year olds down the straight over 1100m and you might have a better chance at the local chook raffle. 10 of 12 on debut, and most importantly 8 of the debutants with no official trials. Best guide is in the yard and late market movements. At this stage for obvious reasons, will be watching and learning.
SUGGEST: NO BET AT THIS STAGE (CONFIDENCE 0%)
Race 2: Benchmark 78 for the three year old fillies over 1400m and keen on one at odds here in **STORMSABREWING** @ $16+ with UBET and BET365. Drawn awkwardly but hopefully with rain leading up, out wider might be the place to be. Given the odds will make a BEST VALUe bet of the day. Main dangers PAYROLL and VIA NAPOLI.
SUGGEST: **STORMSABREWING** (EACH WAY) @ $16+, FIRST FOUR (2, 8 / F / F / 11) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 3: Now for the three year olds over 1000m and a lot revolves around the debutante here in WALL STREET WOLF into $3.40+ with most operators, after solid support following very nice trial and gets in with a featherweight of 51.5kg after the claim. Want to play him on a WIN only basis, along with CHASE THE HORIZON each way @ $8.50+ with BET365 and SPORTSBET. The wetter the better for this guy, while the cut in the ground is a query for several rivals here. Happy to simply play around the two.
SUGGEST: WALL STREET WOLF (WIN) @ $3.40+, CHASE THE HORIZON (EACH WAY) @ $8.50+, FIRST FOUR (F / 14 / F / 2) (CONFIDENCE 40%)
Race 4: Benchmark 90 over 1800m and the market is spot in here (unfortunately) with the two faves in HOLY COW and TIME TO TEST. Expecting the two to battle this out, with a slight lean to HOLY COW @ $3.30+ on the back of the 3kg claim, meaning a featherweight of only 51kg to carry. Main danger TIME TO TEST who we’ll play through multiples. If track happens to be favouring those closer to the pace, then I’d be looking to swap the two, but assuming an even track playing this way.
SUGGEST: HOLY COW (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $3.30+, QUINELLA (HOLY COW, TIME TO TEST), EXACTA (TIME TO TEST / HOLY COW), FIRST FOUR (F / 5, 7 / 5, 7 / F) (CONFIDENCE 55%)
Race 5: Open handicap over 2500m, with race stripped back significantly due to scratchings, in saying that all 6 remaining runners with legitimate winning claims, hence won’t be easy. Slight lean given the conditions to FALAGO @ a tidy enough $4.20+ with LADBROKES, BOOKMAKERS, BET365 and BETEASY. Note, no third dividend, throw a blanket over the rest.
SUGGEST: FALAGO (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $4.20+, FIRST FOUR (1, 2, 8, 9, 11 / 5 / 1, 2, 8, 9, 11 / 1, 2, 8, 9, 11), (1, 2, 8, 9, 11 / 1, 2, 8, 9, 11 / 5 / 1, 2, 8, 9, 11) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 6: Benchmark 78 for the three year olds over 2000m and although he hasn’t been missed, still keen to play WHOOP WHOOP on a WIN only basis here at $3+ with UBET. Hoping for better odds closer to jump time, but current odds still a betting proposition. Slight concern is if they dawdle up front and if that occurs, then main danger TORELLI may prove hard to catch. Happy to simply play around the two once again.
SUGGEST: WHOOP WHOOP (WIN) @ $3+, FIRST FOUR (2 / 8 / F / F) (CONFIDENCE 60%)
Race 7: Open event over 1400m and this looks a very open and competitive affair. Keen to play a few here at juicy prices and spread bets accordingly. Top pick SHE’S CLEAN @ $10+ (most operators) who should appreciate the cut in ground and decent pace up front. Happy to forgive last start when the heaven’s opened in sunny Sydney. Also want smaller plays on both IGGIMACOOL and EXIMIUS at $17+ and $19+ respectively.
SUGGEST: SHE’S CLEAN (WIN / EACH WAY - PRIMARY) @ $10+, IGGIMACOOL (WIN / EACH WAY - SECONDARY) @ $17+, EXIMIUS (WIN / EACH WAY – SECONDARY) @ $19+, FIRST FOUR (F / 4, 5, 8 / F / 4, 5, 8) (CONFIDENCE 30%)
Race 8: Penultimate event of the day, an open event over 1000m. Even affair, pace/tactics could be key, in addition to how track is playing. Slight lean given price on offer is for HARD ROMP at a tidy and respectable $10+ with BET365. Meets key rival BULLPIT very similar for meeting two back and if set for this after a freshen up, should be right in the finish. Given the odds, will make a BEST VALUE bet of the day. Main dangers BULLPIT and OLIVIER.
SUGGEST: **HARD ROMP** (EACH WAY) @ $10+, FIRST FOUR (6, 10 / F / F / 4) (CONFIDENCE 40%)
Race 9: And we finish with a benchmark 78 over 1400m and an extremely difficult way to finish. Slight lean ANDRASSY @ $11+ (UBET), ahead of BRADMAN @ $14+ (SPORTSBET) and *TEMPS VOLEUR* @ $41+ who just keeps doing enough to maintain our interest on a smaller more speculative basis. Given the odds will make the latter a BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day. Many, many chances.
SUGGEST: ANDRASSY (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $11+, BRADMAN (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $14+, *TEMPS VOLEUR* (EACH WAY) @ $41+, FIRST FOUR (F / 3, 4, 10 / F / 3, 4, 10) (CONFIDENCE 25%)
Average odds $12.71+ per suggested runner!
** BEST VALUE **: STORMSABREWING @ $16+, HARD ROMP @ $10+
*BEST LONGSHOT*: TEMPS VOLEUR @ $41+