ALL SPORT PUNTING DUNGEON
SATURDAY, JUNE 18, 2016
We return to racing at MOONEE VALLEY with the penetrometer reading 5.43, so currently looking at a SOFT (7) surface.
RAIL: +3M (ENTIRE CIRCUIT). We head to MOONEE VALLEY after a decent break, and interestingly two weeks later than expected after the meeting on June 4, 2016 was transferred to Sandown. As always, be sure to keep a close eye on the track and how it’s playing in the early races for best guide, especially given the break.
Race 1: We start with the two year olds over 1200m and given the soft track and little exposure to such a track, there’s too much guesswork here for mine, hence at this stage a watch and learn affair. If keen to play, be sure to takle a good look in the yard and monitor betting closer to jump time.
SUGGEST: NO BET AT THIS STAGE (CONFIDENCE 0%)
Race 2: Benchmark 78 over the famous 2040m distance at the Valley and this is hard. A lot will depend on how track is playing, was originally expecting it to favour leaders, but with the rain, I’m now not sure. And unfortunately was unable to walk the track this morning. NESBO looks hard to beat, but probably goes back from the gate and just a query on whether that will be an okay place to be and/or a slight query at the trip with 60kg on his back. KING WAY looks set to run a race in Aus but also short enough at $3.80+. Instead, without a great deal of confidence, prefer to have a dabble on LORD ORE @ $8+ with UBET, LUXBET and SPORTSBET. 8 runners, so three place dividends.
SUGGEST: LORD ORE (EACH WAY) @ $8+ (CONFIDENCE 25%)
Race 3: Open handicap over the same 2040m distance with the race turned on its head due to the scratching of hot favourite RAW IMPULSE, which is a shame as value now is diluted and we would have taken him on at the odds he was in earlier markets. Hoping leaders/on pacers aren’t disadvantaged now with the rain, but as long as they don’t pour on too much pressure up front, think LONGERON can be hard to catch @ $3+ with BET365. Gets crucial 1.5kg swing on favourite TURNITAROUND here. Suggest a WIN only play. Main danger the obvious in TURNITAROUND, followed by the McEvot duo of SYMSO and SENSE OF OCCASION.
SUGGEST: LONGERON (WIN) @ $3+, FIRST FOUR (boxed 1, 3, 5, 6), (1 / F / 5 / 3, 6) (CONFIDENCE 40%)
Race 4: Benchmark 84 for the fillies and mares over the mile. Disappointed by the late scratching of NOELA’S CHOICE who I thought was set to run a big race here. Always tricky there fillies and mares’ mile events, but here I now have a slight lean to CLEMENCY @ $3.90+ (UNIBET) who we were successfully on last time, ahead of BRINKLEY LASS who represents good each way value @ $11+ with SPORTSBET, UNIBET and BET365. Suggest CLEMENCY on a WIN only basis and BRINKLEY LASS each way. Main dangers LAHQA and MA JONES.
SUGGEST: CLEMENCY (WIN) @ $3.90+, BRINKLEY LASS (EACH WAY) @ $11+, FIRST FOUR (6, 8 / 7 / F / F), (F / 6, 7, 8 / 6, 7, 8 / F) (CONFIDENCE 40%)
Race 5: Now for the three year old fillies over 1000m. Another disappointing scratching, this time in the form of FIREWORKS, and also PARCEL. Tough race now, but have come up with **WORLD OF HOPE** on top at $5.50+ with UNIBET. Given the odds will make a BEST VALUE bet of the day. That’s the primary play, before a secondary play at *CERTAIN ELLIE* at a very juicy $31+ with BET365. Given the odds will make a BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day. Main dangers PRONTEZZA and STRYKINGLEE.
SUGGEST: **WORLD OF HOPE** (WIN / EACH WAY - PRIMARY) @ $5.50+, *CERTAIN ELLIE* (EACH WAY - SECONDARY) @ $31+, FIRST FOUR (6, 16 / 4, 5 / F / 4, 5), (F / 6, 16 / F / 4, 5) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 6: Benchmark 84 for the mares over 1000m and this is another tricky affair. Want to have a play on **ANYASS** @ $10+ with LUXBET and BET365. First start for Hayes/Dabernig and only two starts back was beaten only 0.8L to the very talented Telepathic on a heavy track. Tricky gate here is the obvious concern, however if the fence is off by this stage, which it will probably be, then sitting three wide might not be the worst place to be. Happy to take the punt anyways given current odds. Given the odds will make a BEST VALUE bet of the day. Also want to play *SHARATAN* @ $34+ with BET365, goes well fresh, likes the Valley and won’t mind the cut in the ground. Given the odds will make a BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day. Main dangers CHIAVARI, PINK PERFECTION, APPALACHIAN ANNIE and HOTEL SIERRA.
SUGGEST: **ANYASS** (EACH WAY) @ $10+, *SHARATAN* (EACH WAY) @ $34+, FIRST FOUR (2, 5, 6, 7 / F / F / 3, 13) (CONFIDENCE 30%)
Race 7: Open event for the three year olds, this time over 1200m and as long as he handles the softer track, then think FIRST HAND will take a power of beating here. Won well on debut at Wyong and has trialled very impressively since. Monitor betting late but suggest a WIN only play given current odds of $3+ (SPORTSBET, UNIBET). Main dangers BASSETT and CHARLIE GARCON.
SUGGEST: FIRST HAND (WIN) @ $3+, FIRST FOUR (2, 13 / 12 / F / F) (CONFIDENCE 40%)
Race 8: Penultimate event is an open handicap over the mile and one has jumped out here since we first glanced over the fields, and that is CHANCE TO DANCE. Looked the wrong price in early markets with as much as $6.50 found. $4.20+ still on offer with the likes of LADBROKES, BOOKMAKERS and BETSTAR. Saver on ONPICALO @ $6.50+ (SPORTSBET) who I expect to run a cheeky race and will be tough late with minimal weight on back. Suggest a win only play on both runners. Next best LORD DURANTE who looks to be going very well, without luck.
SUGGEST: CHANCE TO DANCE (WIN - PRIMARY) @ $4.20+, ONPICALO (WIN – SECONDARY) @ $6.50+, FIRST FOUR (F / 4, 9, 10 / 4, 9, 10 / F) (CONFIDENCE 50%)
Race 9: And we finish with an open event over 1200m. Top pick DUKE OF BRUNSWICK who never runs a bad race and don’t see how he isn’t in the finish here @ $3.50+ with most operators. Suggest a primary WIN only play on the Duke, followed by a secondary each way play on NICOSCENE @ $10+ with LUXBET and BET365.
SUGGEST: DUKE OF BRUNSWICK (WIN) @ $3.50+, NICOSCENE (EACH WAY) @ $10+, FIRST FOUR (F / 5, 8 / F / 5, 8) (CONFIDENCE 40%)
Average odds $10.28+ per suggested runner!
** BEST VALUE **: WORLD OF HOPE @ $5.50+, ANYASS @ $10+
*BEST LONGSHOT*: CERTAIN ELLIE @ $31+, SHARATAN @ $34+