ALL SPORT PUNTING DUNGEON
SATURDAY JUNE 18, 2016
Racing at ROSEHILL GARDENS with the penetrometer currently reading 5.26, currently looking at a SOFT (6) surface. More rain forecast for Saturday with an increasing 4 - 10mm.
RAIL: +4M (ENTIRE CIRCUIT). We head to ROSEHILL GARDENS with the rail out +4M after being in the TRUE position two weeks’ back when the heavens opened. Hoping for an even track, but as usual be sure to keep an eye on early races for best guide.
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Race 1: Early start (11.25am AEST) with the two year olds and there looks to be a decent amount of guesswork here. Best value looks to lie with debutante MOOHARIBA@ $9 (SPORTSBET, LUXBET) who has trialled nicely in recent times without being pushed out, and COGLIERE @ $10+ with BET365. Main dangers DYNAMIC DYNASTY, HANOVER SQUARE and short priced fave FOXPLAY.
SUGGEST: MOOHARIBA (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $9+, COGLIERE (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $10+, FIRST FOUR (2, 3, 5 / 4, 6 / F / 4, 6) (CONFIDENCE 30%)
Race 2: Now for the three year olds over 2000m. Small field, but very competitive with all runners with legitimate winning claims. Slight lean FOREIGN PRINCE @ $5+ with BET365. Throw a blanket over the rest of the field, not much between them all.
SUGGEST: FOREIGN PRINCE (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $5+ (CONFIDENCE 30%)
Race 3: Class 3 over 1500m. Tried hard to find something to beat the favourite, but the more I looked, the more I kept coming back to CALAWAY CRUIZER @ $4+ with most operators. Suggest a primary play there, as well as a secondary each way investment on best value runner SHE’S INVINCIBLE @ $21+ with BET365.
SUGGEST: CALAWAY CRUIZER (WIN / EACH WAY - PRIMARY) @ $4+, SHE’S INVINCIBLE (EACH WAY - SECONDARY) @ $21+, FIRST FOUR (F / 6 / F / 10) (CONFIDENCE 40%)
Race 4: Benchmark 84 for the fillies and mares over 1200m and this is a very even affair as you tend to get with the fillies and mares. Slight lean to WINE TALES @ $8.50+ with SPORTSBET, she doesn’t win out of turn, but we thankfully haven’t been burnt much by her. Word has it she is working as well as ever after a long layoff and goes very well fresh. Looks good each way value. Main dangers FLAMBOYANT LASS and THUD, however race runs much deeper than that.
SUGGEST: WINE TALES (EACH WAY) @ $8.50+, FIRST FOUR (4, 8 / F / F / 1), (F / 4, 8 / F / 1) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 5: Benchmark 74 for the three year olds over 1350m and CLASSIC UNIFORM gets in well at the weights here and as a result ends up on top @ $6.50+ with PALMERBET and SPORTSBET. Most notably gets required 2kg swing on SO WILLIE for last start defeat, which is needed and might be enough to turn the tables here. Main danger SO WILLIE, but another race why runs much deeper.
SUGGEST: CLASSIC UNIFORM (EACH WAY) @ $6.50+, FIRST FOUR (3 / F / F / 4) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 6: Now for a benchmark 78 over 1350m and it’s now time for DISGRACEFUL @ $4.75+ (BET365) to finally get into the winner’s stall after two very good runs where he has just missed. Main danger is stablemate AVONACO, so happy to play around the two.
SUGGEST: DISGRACEFUL (EACH WAY) @ $4.75+, FIRST FOUR (6 / F / F / 4), (F / 4, 6 / F / 4, 6) (CONFIDENCE 45%)
Race 7: Benchmark 85 over 1500m and a very competitive affair with many legitimate winning hopes. Slight lean **MAGICAL STANCE** @ $5+ (BET365) after a very nice return last time and will now be better suited over this longer trip. Will make a BEST VALUE bet of the day. Suggest a primary play here, with a secondary one on METALLIC CROWN @ $13+ with BET365. Main dangers AMMIRATA, INVINZABEEL and KELLYVILLE FLYER.
SUGGEST: **MAGICAL STANCE** (WIN / EACH WAY - PRIMARY) @ $5+, METALLIC CROWN (EACH WAY – SECONDARY) @ $13+, FIRST FOUR (1, 7, 9 / 2, 10 / F / 2, 10) (CONFIDENCE 40%)
Race 8: Benchmark 84 over 1800m and keen on one at nice odds here in THURSTON @ $12+ with BET365. Was super first up and given the bad gate, might be helped by the fact they will start getting away from the fence and potentially running on as the day goes on with the rain forecast. Given the odds will make a BEST VALUE bet of the day. Also want a secondary play on OLYMPIC ACADEMY who is also at nice odds, at $10+ with LADBROKES, BOOKMAKERS and BETSTAR. Final small speculative play *COLLABORATION* who was poor last time but has some gear changes to hopefully assist here at $51+ with most operators. Given the odds will make a BEST LONGSHOT of the day. Main dangers led by VASSAL, ahead of CONSIGN, PIAMIMI and SANTA ROCKS.
SUGGEST: **THURSTON** (E/W - PRIMARY) @ $12+, OLYMPIC ACADEMY (WIN / E/W - SECONDARY) @ $10+, *COLLABORATION* (E/W) @ $51+, FIRST FOUR (8 / 4, 9, 11 / F / 1, 7, 15), (F / 4, 8, 9, 11 / 4, 8, 9, 11 / 1, 7, 15) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 9: We finish with a benchmark 85 over 1100m. Slight lean in a tricky finish to PAINTE @ $4.50+ with SPORTSBET. Suggest on a WIN only basis, as I’m then keen on a couple at juicy odds in the form of *AROUSED* @ $31+ with UNIBET and GRAND CONDOR @ $34+ with BET365. Given the odds, will make *AROUSED* another BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day. Main dangers ELEMENOHPEE, WONDERBOLT and POWERLINE.
SUGGEST: PAINTE (WIN – PRIMARY) @ $4.50+, *AROUSED* (E/W – SECONDARY) @ $31+, GRAND CONDOR (E/W – SECONDARY) @ $34+, FIRST FOUR (2, 7, 13 / 3 / F / 1, 9) (CONFIDENCE 30%)
Average odds a juicy $14.33+ per suggested runner!
** BEST VALUE **: MAGICAL STANCE @ $5+, THURSTON @ $12+
*BEST LONGSHOTS*: COLLABOARATION @ $51+, AROUSED @ $31+