ALL SPORT PUNTING DUNGEON
SATURDAY, JUNE 25, 2015
Racing at FLEMINGTON with the penetrometer reading 4.98, so currently looking at a SOFT (6) surface.
RAIL: +9M (ENTIRE CIRCUIT). Racing at Flemington with the rail out +9M, after it was out +6M two weeks’ back. Given rain, expect them to get off the fence, especially as the day goes on. Hoping for an even track, pace dependant, but be sure to keep a close eye on the track and how it’s playing in the early races for best guide.
Race 1: We start with the two year olds over 1400m. Bit of guesswork given the softer track, and some decent form to work through, however slight lean CLIFF HANGER @ $5.50+ (BET365) who won well last start, and am convinced is an out and out wet tracker, hence gets conditions to suit here. Main dangers COBBMORE, COLONEL CLINK and KENEDNA.
SUGGEST: CLIFF HANGER (EACH WAY) @ $5.50+ (CONFIDENCE 30%)
Race 2: Now for the mares over 1400m, with a small, but competitive field assembled. Slight lean this time to NIMINYPIMINY @ $4.20+ with UNIBET and SPORTSBET. Just slightly over key dangers IGGIMACOOL, DANESTROEM and TELOPEA. Note, no third dividend.
SUGGEST: NIMINIYPIMINY (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $4.20+, FIRST FOUR (1, 2, 4 / 1, 2, 4 / 6 / F) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 3: Benchmark 78 over the mile and am running with the Sale form here with MR PAGO looking great each way value at $13+ with BET365 and LUXBET. Reckon he can turn the tables on LANDSLIDE, who I suggest a saving WIN only investment on at a tidy enough $5.50+ with most operators. Main dangers for multiples, DISTANT ROCK and TURBO STREET.
SUGGEST: MR PAGO (EACH WAY) @ $13+, LANDSLIDE (WIN) @ $5.50+, FIRST FOUR (5, 7 / 11 / F / 10) (CONFIDENCE 40%)
Race 4: Now for the three year olds down the straight over 1100m. SPIETH is the obvious top pick and one we think has a tonne of potential as we’ve stated in previous selections, including last start win when we were keen. In saying that, have a slight query on the softer track given the short odds. I’d be monitoring betting closer to race time, if the track remains around the SOFT (7) mark. Should the track improve to a SOFT (5) or better then he jumps to top pick and a standalone WIN play (instead of KING’S TROOP), but given current conditions looking elsewhere for the time been. Firstly, *FIREWORKS* @ $21+ with most operators, who we suggested last week, before being scratched. Underrated galloper, who represents great each way value at current price. Given the odds will make a BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day. The other is KING’S TROOP who gets the necessary pull in the weights to potentially turn the tables on SPEITH, hence suggest a play at $5.50+ with UBET.
SUGGEST: *FIREWORKS* (EACH WAY) @ $21+, KING’S TROOP (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $5.50+, FIRST FOUR (1 / 2 / F / F), (roving 1, 2, 3 / F) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 5: Open handicap over 1400m and a very tricky little affair despite the lack of starters. All runners with some claims, however slight lean to BY THE GRACE @ $4.40+ with LADBROKES, BOOKMAKERS.COM.AU and BETSTAR. Main dangers JACQUINOT BAY, SHE’S CLEAN and DEL PRADO.
SUGGEST: BY THE GRACE (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $4.40+, FIRST FOUR (1, 3, 6 / 1, 3, 6 / 5 / F) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 6: Now for the three year olds over the mile, and another very even and tricky affair, especially with a speed map that isn’t easily put together. Half expecting a couple who normally settle further back to settle closer to the pace, given the lack of apparent pace on paper. Slight lean to LADY SELKIRK @ $8.50+ (most operators) who I’m hoping can settle much closer to the pace, after getting way back last start and almost falling in the straight before hitting the line very well considering. Another at very nice odds, who I want a play on is LUNAR SPIN @ $14+ (most operators), similarly want to settle close to the pace in the hope those on pace pinch a race winning break on the turn. Main dangers PAYROLL, SHOCKAHOLIC and WAR LEGEND.
SUGGEST: LADY SELKIRK (EACH WAY) @ $8.50+, LUNAR SPIN (EACH WAY) @ $14+, FIRST FOUR (1, 4, 7 / F / F / 11, 16) (CONFIDENCE 30%)
Race 7: Benchmark 90 also over the mile and another race devoid of speed and very little between several key runners. Slight lean ROYAL RAPTURE who is now ready to win at $4+ with UBET and SPORTSBET. Barrier 1 a slight concern, but trust Brad Rawiller will get him off the fence at the right time to hopefully find the right part of the track in the straight. Longshot blowout hope to SUBIASO @ $61+ with each of CROWNET, UNIBET, SPORTSBET. Given the odds will make another BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day.
SUGGEST: ROYAL RAPTURE (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $4+, *SUBIASO* (EACH WAY) @ $61+, FIRST FOUR (F / 2 / F / 9) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 8: Penultimate event of the day, an open event over 2520m and don’t see a reason to jump off **FALAGO** here at a very respectable $10+ with BET365, LUXBET and UBET. Unlucky two back just behind key rival here in UNGRATEFUL ELLEN, and last time beat all but the extremely heavily backed Araldo Junior who was backed off the map late. Given the odds will make a BEST VALUe bet of the day. Speculative blowout chance to ANGELOLOGY @ $67+ with SPORTSBET.
SUGGEST: **FALAGO** (EACH WAY - PRIMARY) @ $10+, ANGELOLOGY (EACH WAY – SECONDARY) @ $67+, FIRST FOUR (F / 5 / F / 7) (CONFIDENCE 40%)
Race 9: And we finish with an open event down the straight over 1100m, and think those at the top of the weights are the ones to beat here. **RELDAS** looks great value at $11+ with CROWNBET, LUXBET and UBET. Actually gets in well in the weights here, especially after the 1.5kg claim, down to 58.5kg. Given the odds will make a BEST VALUE bet of the day. Also want something on ALBERTO MAGIC @ $9+ (BET365) who will be fitter for run last time and gets conditions to suit here. Main dangers GENERAL TRUCE and ODYSSEY MOON.
SUGGEST: **RELDAS** (EACH WAY) @ $11+, ALBERTO MAGIC (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $9+, FIRST FOUR (F / 3, 15 / F / 1, 2) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Average odds $16.24+ per suggested runner!
** BEST VALUE **: FALAGO @ $10+, RELDAS @ $11+
*BEST LONGSHOT*: FIREWORKS @ $21+, SUBIASO @ $61+