25 June 2016 (Racing at Royal Randwick)

ALL SPORT PUNTING DUNGEON

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ROYAL RANDWICK

SATURDAY, JUNE 25, 2016

 

Racing at ROYAL RANDWICK with the penetrometer reading 5.89, currently looking at a SOFT (7) surface.

RAIL: +9M (ENTIRE CIRCUIT). We head to ROYAL RANDWICK with the rail out +9M. This rail position would normally lead to a on pace advantage, however given the constant rain in Sydney, including in the lead up, which may lead to them getting off the fence (that’s my gut feel), however fine weather forecast today (Saturday). Tricky one to gauge. Hoping for an even track, pace dependant. As always, be sure to keep an eye on how the track is playing in the early races for best guide.

 

Race 1: We start with a benchmark 76 for the three year olds over 1200m. Tricky start with several very good chances and as a result going to simply watch and learn.

SUGGEST: NO BET AT THIS STAGE (CONFIDENCE 0%)

 

Race 2: Now for the two year olds over 1200m and a tricky affair for obvious reasons, however loved the run of INFRA DIG last time and as a result suggest a WIN only play (nothing crazy) at a respectable $4.50+ with LADBROKES, BOOKMAKERS.COM.AU and BETSTAR.

SUGGEST: INFRA DIG (WIN) @ $4.50+ (CONFIDENCE 0%)

 

Race 3: Now for the class 3 Highway Handicap to be run over 1200m. At first I thought I’d be steering clear as this looks tough, however upon closer inspection going to suggest a play on RAISED A LEGEND at a more than respectable $9+ with BET365. Main dangers ROYAL ENGINEER, STAR SHAFT, MOSSMAN’S GOLD and FLASH IN THE DARK for multiples.

SUGGEST: RAISED A LEGEND (EACH WAY) @ $9+, FIRST FOUR (1, 3, 10, 12 / F / F / 2) (CONFIDENCE 30%)

 

Race 4: Benchmark 78 over 2600m. Not a race I’m overly enthused about, always a fair bit of guesswork when runners are dropping back from a 3200m event as some key runners here are. As a result, just want to play around one at a nice price and should be suited by the longer distance here. FOUR CARAT @ $11+ with UBET is a good price, despite not necessarily running up to par this prep. Gets everything to suit here, hence simply no excuses and if not in the finish here will be going into the sin bin once feels. Happy to take the punt he’ll improve at this trip, back to Sydney. Main dangers MURPHY’S DELIGHT, ZATOPAZ and NOT A GYPSY.

SUGGEST: FOUR CARAT (EACH WAY) @ $11+, FIRST FOUR (F / 1, 5, 9 / F / 2) (CONFIDENCE 30%)

 

Race 5: Open event over the famous Randwick mile. Good race, but a lot of depth, with most runners with legitimate winning claims. Going to stick with the Waller duo here, led by MARENOSTRO who has his share of weight (top weight of 60kg after claims), but the stable are obviously confident enough given they have elected to leave ride with Tye Angland with no claim. $3.60+ with most operators decent enough odds, and will play on a WIN only basis. Longshot play on stablemate and one of our favourites in BLACK JAG @ $34+ with SPORTSBET. The mile is probably short of his best distance, but can surprise when you least expect and the harder they go, the better, as this guy keeps going, just as you think he’s done. Ironically, MARESNOSTRO doesn’t want a hard run mile, but BLACK JAG does.

SUGGEST: MARENOSTRO (WIN) @ $3.60+, BLACK JAG (EACH WAY) @ $34+, FIRST FOUR (F / 2 / F / 3) (CONFIDENCE 45%)

 

Race 6: Benchmark 84 for the fillies and mares over 1400m and very disappointed by the scratching of WINE TALES who I was keen to back here. Another very competitive race, seems to be the order of the day but have come out with HARLEM LADY on top here at $5.50+ with LADBROKES, BOOKMAKERS.COM.AU and BETSTAR. Given the odds will make a BEST VALUE bet of the day. Main dangers ALART, ELLE LOU, TROIS CHOIX and ZELDA.

SUGGEST: **HARLEM LADY** (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $5.50+, FIRST FOUR (F / 3, 6, 9, 13 / 3, 6, 9, 13 / 8), (3, 6, 9, 13 / 3, 6, 9, 13 / F / 8) (CONFIDENCE 35%)

 

Race 7: Now for a benchmark 78 over 1400m and a tricky speed map to nail. Pace/tactics set to be key, hence the better jockeys normally have a bigger advantage in these types of races. Another race with little between them, and going to give a slight lean to one we were on last time when terribly unlucky and that’s DUBAIIINSTYLE @ $6+ with most operators, who gets in with a lightweight of 53kg. Just ahead of SUPER TYCOON at a tidy $12+ with CROWNBET who else gets away with a very light weight of 52.5kg after the very handy claim. Main dangers GRUNDERZEIT, METALLIC CROWN (if remains SOFT (7) then keen, but expecting track to dry out by race 7) and SLYDINI.

SUGGEST: DUBAIINSTYLE (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $6+, SUPER TYCOON (EACH WAY) @ $12+, FIRST FOUR (1, 4, 8 / 10, 13 / F / 10, 13) (CONFIDENCE 35%)

 

Race 8: Penultimate event on the card is an open handicap over 1200m and as long as leaders/on pacers are getting their chance, and if so, then think INZ’N’OUT should be very hard to beat here at $2.25+ with UNIBET. Hoping they come for others and we get a better price, but only time will tell. Suggest a primary WIN only play, confident that he’s just been getting done by good horses and time to get back in the winner’s stalls. Best value who I want a secondary play on is *ZIN ZAN EDDIE* at a juicy $20+ with LUXBET and CROWNBET. Given the odds will make a BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day. The main danger is ex-Hong Kong galloper who has trialled well in SMART VOLATILITY, be sure to monitor markets, especially late in betting and a must for multiples, quaddies, etc. Happy to play around the three.

SUGGEST: INZ’N’OUT (WIN - PRIMARY) @ $2.25+, *ZIN ZAN EDDIE* (EACH WAY – SECONDARY) @ $20+, FIRST FOUR (1 / 2 / F / 7), (roving 1, 2, 7 / F) (CONFIDENCE 60%) 

 

Race 9: And we finish the day with a benchmark 78 over 1000m. Another wide open affair and on this occasion there looks to be strong speed on paper, which should suit those off the pace. As a result, keen to play on one here at a juicy price in **SKRIPCHENKO** @ $15+ with SPORTSBET and CROWNBET. Looks great each way value and as a result will make a BEST VALUE bet of the day. Longshot play on *FLORAL INSIGHT* at a very juicy at $61+ with BET365. Given the odds will make a BEST LONGSHOT of the day.  Main danger ENCOSTANATI, THREE SHEETS and HOT HIT.

SUGGEST: **SKRIPCHENKO** (EACH WAY - PRIMARY) @ $15+, *FLORAL INSIGHT* (EACH WAY – SECONDARY) @ $61+, FIRST FOUR (3, 6, 7 / F / F / 4, 12) (CONFIDENCE 30%) 

 

SUMMARY:

Average odds a massive $15.32+ per suggested runner!

** BEST VALUE **: HARLEM LADY @ $5.50+, SKRIPCHENKO @ $15+

*BEST LONGSHOTS*: ZIN ZAN EDDIE @ $21+, FLORAL INSIGHT @ $61+

#happypunting