ALL SPORT PUNTING DUNGEON
SATURDAY, JUNE 4, 2016
Racing at SANDOWN HILLSIDE with the penetrometer reading 5.57, hence currently looking at a SOFT (6) surface. Forecast Saturday is for ‘light rain at times’, with 1 - 3mm forecast.
RAIL: TRUE (ENTIRE CIRCUIT). We head to SANDOWN HILLSIDE with the rail in the TRUE position, hoping for an even track, but as always, be sure to keep a close eye on the track and how it’s playing in the early races for best guide, especially given overnight rain in Melbourne. Note: track was a GOOD (4) Friday.
Race 1: We start with the two year old fillies and this looks a raffle that I’m not so keen to dabble in at the moment. Always important to see them in the yard and monitor betting, and as a result always the chance I get keen on something to race time, and if so will communicate via social channels.
SUGGEST: NO BET AT THIS STAGE (CONFIDENCE 0%)
Race 2: Benchmark 84 for the fillies and mares over 1500m and this looks set to be a tactical affair with only moderate pace on paper, at best. Will be interesting where they elect to ride YELLEN who is drawn poorly, but think she becomes very hard to beat if Melham goes forward and finds a spot. Just a little wary at the now much shorter odds ($8.50+ into $5+), hence am going to lean towards plays on each of CLEMENCY @ $4.20+ (BET365) on a primary basis, ahead of TESTABILITY @ $7+ with SPORTSBET and BET365. Main danger YELLEN as mentioned previously and NIMINYPIMINY.
SUGGEST: CLEMENCY (WIN / EACH WAY - PRIMARY) @ $4.20+, TESTABILITY (WIN / EACH WAY – SECONDARY) @ $7+, FIRST FOUR (3, 5 / F / F / 7, 10), (3, 5 / 7, 10 / F / 7, 10) (CONFIDENCE 30%)
Race 3: Now for the three year olds over the mile, and a competitive field assembled. Don’t see any reason why **REZAK** can’t get the job done again at a juicy $11+ with BET365, top weight offset with a handy 2kg claim. Given the odds will make a BEST VALUE bet of the day. Just ahead WAR LEGEND who is down in grade here and suggest a play on a WIN only basis at $8+ with UBET and UNIBET. Then a blowout play on *PRINCE OF BABYLON* at a juicy 50/1+ with both SPORTSBET and BET365. Given the odds will make a BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day. Main dangers LAKE JACKSON and ATLANTIC CITY.
SUGGEST: **REZAK** (EACH WAY) @ $11+, WAR LEGEND (WIN) @ $8+, *PRINCE OF BABYLON* (EACH WAY) @ $51+, FIRST FOUR (7, 11 / 1, 4 / F / 1, 4, 9) (CONFIDENCE 30%)
Race 4: Open handicap over 1800m and not much between many of these, as the market suggests. Slight lean SYSMO @ $6.50+ with SPORTSBET. Main dangers TURNITAROUND and LONGERON, hence in agreement with the bookies given current marketplace.
SUGGEST: SYSMO (EACH WAY) @ $6.50+, FIRST FOUR (roving 1, 2, 4 / F), (1, 4 / F / F / 2) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 5: Next is a benchmark 78 over 1000m and another very competitive affair, with several fancied runners drawn wide in a big field, hence pace/tactics key. Slight lean at the odds with **WORLD OF HOPE** @ $9+ with BET365. Has hardly put a foot wrong in short career and with a touch of luck from the gate, should be right in the finish. Given the odds will make a BEST VALUE bet of the day. Also, want to have a play around STINGRAY at a juicy $21+ with most operators. Main dangers for multiples (definitely want to play first fours here in an open big field as these tend to pay very well) include SAN AMARO (trialled very well, just might need a run), MAGNAGEM and SECRET BLEND.
SUGGEST: **WORLD OF HOPE** (EACH WAY) @ $9+, STRINGRAY (EACH WAY) @ $21+, FIRST FOUR (8, 10, 16 / 15 / F / 5), (8, 10, 16 / F / F / 5, 15) (CONFIDENCE 30%)
Race 6: Benchmark 84 over the mile. A couple of key scratchings to runners was probably looking to play around, notably NOZOMI and LEONFORTE, hence this now looks an easier race for SCHERZOSO @ $3.50+ with BET365. Was super first up and despite significant weight increase, gets a very handy 3kg claim from Ben Allen. Main dangers SOMETHING TO SHARE (especially if the rain continues), respect any money for NESBO first up (Kent has been landing such plunges of late) and ROYAL RAPTURE.
SUGGEST: SCHERZOSO (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $3.50+, FIRST FOUR (3, 5, 12 / 6 / F / F), (3, 5, 12 / F / F / 6) (CONFIDENCE 45%)
Race 7: Now for the mares over 1300m, might sound like a broken record but another very even affair, with literally every runner with a legitimate winning claim, as evidenced by the fact we are suggested a play on a couple of the rank outsiders given current markets. Concede A LOTTA LOVE and FORGERESS will both be hardest to beat, especially with the extra rain, but both rock bottom odds in my opinion and as a result prefer to save through multies and/or narrow quaddie leg. Instead prefer smaller outlays on DANESTREOM @ $14+ with SPORTSBET, UNIBET and BET365, ahead of *NADEEM LASS* @ $21+ with most operators. Given the odds will make a BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day. Main dangers the two mentioned above, however race doesn’t necessarily end there, all runners in the field ‘can’ win.
SUGGEST: DANESTREOM (EACH WAY) @ $14+, *NADEEM LASS* (EACH WAY) @ $21+, FIRST FOUR (5, 8 / F / F / 1, 4), (F / 5, 8 / F / 1, 4) (CONFIDENCE 30%)
Race 8: Penultimate event on the card is for the three year olds over 1300m and keen on one here in SOOBOOG @ $4.80+ with BET365. Has been low flying of late and obviously has knockers given inconsistent past, but just have a feeling the change in scenery/stable (Hawks to Weir) has done the trick and this guy has now turned the corner. Wasn’t disgraced last time in hot Group 1, so a big drop in grade here, the slight query the soft track, so hoping we don’t get a great deal of extra rain today. Main dangers JALAN JALAN and ODYSSEY MOON.
SUGGEST: SOOBOOG (EACH WAY) @ $4.80+, FIRST FOUR (roving 1, 2, 3 / F), (F / 1, 3 / F / 2) (CONFIDENCE 50%)
Race 9: And we finish a benchmark 84 over 1300m, even at the top once again, but as opposed to a few others races, don’t think this one runs as deep. And I’m relying on the Morphettville form here, with a slight lean DUKE OF BRUNSWICK @ $3.50+ (BET365), ahead of RUETTIGER @ $4.50+ with SPORTSBET and BET365. Finished alongside each other last time and a lot may depend on how the track is playing. If suiting on pacers, confidence increases with the Duke, alternatively if suiting those running on, then confidence increases with RUETTIGER. Note, blinkers on also. Happy to simply back both on WIN only basis’. Main dangers RAPOSO, MR BACKCHAT, BON ROCKET and BELESRON.
SUGGEST: DUKE OF BRUNSWICK (WIN) @ $3.50+, RUETTIGER (WIN) @ $4.50+, FIRST FOUR (2, 6, 10, 11 / 5, 12 / 5, 12 / F) (CONFIDENCE 50%)
Average odds a juicy $12.07+ per suggested runner!
** BEST VALUE **: REZAK @ $11+, WORLD OF HOPE @ $9+
*BEST LONGSHOTS*: PRINCE OF BABYLON @ $51+, NADEEM LASS @ $21+