ALL SPORT PUNTING DUNGEON
SATURDAY, JULY 16, 2015
Racing at CAULFIELD with the penetrometer reading 5.09, so currently looking at a GOOD (4) surface.
RAIL: +10M (ENTIRE CIRCUIT). Racing at Caulfield with the rail out +10M, after being out +7M two weeks’ ago. Hoping for an even track, pace dependant, however rail position does lend itself to suiting those on pace/closer to the fence. As always, be sure to keep a close eye on the track and how it’s playing in the early races for best guide.
Race 1: We start with the two year olds over 1200m and with several first up, far too much guesswork here to be with any real confidence. If you are keen on anything, be sure to see them in the yard to ascertain fitness levels before investing.
SUGGEST: NO BET AT THIS STAGE (CONFIDENCE 0%)
Race 2: Next is an event for the three year old fillies also over the 1200m and I think Hayes/Dabernig hold the strongest hand here with stablemates FIREWORKS and MAJESTIC LASS. Had FIREWORKS drawn better I’d be ultra-keen, however the upside is we get a decent price, but do need some luck. As a result suggest a play on the each way on FIREWORKS @ $10+ with BET365 and saving WIN only play on MAJESTIC LASS @ $3.80+ with UBET. Main dangers LADY ESPRIT and ANATOLA.
SUGGEST: FIREWORKS (EACH WAY) @ $10+, MAJESTIC LASS (WIN) @ $3.80+ (CONFIDENCE 40%)
Race 3: 3YO handicap over 2000m for some emerging stayers here and must stick with one we were very unlucky with last time at a much better price in the form of FEARLESS RAIDER. Just need a run earlier in the straight and if so, adamant he would have won. Unfortunately, not many missed the run, hence we get shorter odds today, but gets the necessary weight swing to knock off key rivals here, in particular HURSLEY. To be honest, the one I’m most wary of is Mick Kent’s BIG QUID @ $8.50+ with most operators. Primary play FEARLESS RAIDER @ $3.30+ on a WIN only basis, secondary play BIG QUID on the each way @ $8.50+. Main danger HURSLEY, ahead of O’LONERA.
SUGGEST: FEARLESS RAIDER (WIN - PRIMARY) @ $3.30+, BIG QUID (EACH WAY – SECONDARY) @ $8.50+, FIRST FOUR (1, 3 / 2 / F / 1, 3, 6) (CONFIDENCE 40%)
Race 4: Open event also over the 2000m and hard to see them turning the tables on the red hot LONGERON here at a respectable $3.40+ with most operators. Goes up a little in the weights, but recent wins have been dominant, so don’t look significant enough to turn tables on paper. Primary play LONGERON, as well as a secondary play on GOLDEN MANE at a juicy $17+ with most operators. Main dangers SELF SENSE who is a nice each way price, KAPOUR and SCHERZOSO.
SUGGEST: LONGERON (WIN / EACH WAY - PRIMARY) @ $3.40+, GOLDEN MANE (EACH WAY) @ $17+, FIRST FOUR (3, 4, 8 / 1 / F / 3, 4, 5, 8) (CONFIDENCE 50%)
Race 5: Now for a three year old handicap to be run over 1400m and this looks a tricky, very competitive affair. Given all, have come out with two on top, just ahead of a bunch of others. The two in question are PORTION CONTROL @ $8.50+ with BET365 and STORMCRAFT @ $6.50+. Then throw a blanket over the rest, however main danger would be top weight MR INDIVIDUAL.
SUGGEST: PORTION CONTROL (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $8.50+, STORMCRAFT (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $6.50+, FIRST FOUR (1 / 3, 7 / F / 3, 7) (CONFIDENCE 30%)
Race 6: Benchmark 78 again over 1400m and another that runs quite deep with a decent sized field assembled. Pace/tactics set to be key, with only minimal pace on paper, which may suit those on pace. With this in mind, slight lean with top weight SO DOES HE @ $7.50+ with most operators, following important 2 kg claim by Dylan Dunn. Also, want a play on FAST APPROACHING at a very generous $16+ with BET365, representing great each way value. Main danger the obvious in CAMDUS (play through saving multies and/or one out quaddie leg) who has drawn awkwardly, ahead of BEST SUGGESTION, CAPRESE, MARWOOD and HARD CALL. Interesting race, not easy, but as a result decent value on offer, especially if taking on the fave.
SUGGEST: SO DOES HE (EACH WAY) @ $7.50+, FAST APPROACHING (EACH WAY) @ $16+, FIRST FOUR (9 / 1, 3, 4, 5, 6, 8 / 1, 3, 4, 5, 6, 8 / 1, 3, 4, 5, 6, 8), (roving 1, 8, 9 / F) (CONFIDENCE 30%)
Race 7: Now for an open handicap over 1400m and a very good field assembled for this time of year and can’t go past one I personally consider to be a touch underrated in the form of DUKE OF BRUNSWICK. Very seldom runs a bad race, makes his own luck and is putting together some impressive numbers in terms of win/plate record. Suggest a primary play here on a WIN only basis given current odds of $2.90+ with UBET. Ahead of the value runner who is ready to improve third up in MAJESTIC DUKE @ $16+ with each of LADBROKES, BOOKMAKERS and BETSTAR. Main dangers GRACIOUS PROSPECT at juicy odds (20/1) and ULMANN.
SUGGEST: DUKE OF BRUNSWICK (WIN) @ $2.90+, MAJESTIC DUKE (EACH WAY) @ $16+, FIRST FOUR (2, 8 / 3 / F / 2, 5, 8) (CONFIDENCE 50%)
Race 8: Now for the feature of the day, the Group 3 Sir John Monash Stakes run over 1100m. Super race, plenty of quality as you would expect given its Group 3 status and pace/tactics and how track is playing set to be key. FAST ‘N’ ROCKING is arguably the best horse in the race, but have a slight query at the slim $3.70+ for a runner who will get back and give them a decent head start. A must for savers and a good option for multi legs, but will be steering clear of a larger standalone investment given the short price. Instead, prefer to play through OLIVIER @ $26+ (most operators), ahead of value runners in *LE BONSIR* @ $41+ (CROWNBET, BET365) and *TUDOR* @ $51+ with the same two operators. Given the odds will make both BEST LONGSHOT bets of the day. Main danger the obvious in FAST ‘N’ ROCKING and WILD RAIN who is set to get the gun run in the race.
SUGGEST: OLIVIER (EACH WAY) @ $26+, *LE BONSIR* (EACH WAY) @ $41+, *TUDOR* (EACH WAY) @ $51+, FIRST FOUR (1, 13 / F / F / 5, 9, 11) (CONFIDENCE 25%)
Race 9: And we finish with a mares handicap over 1200m and as you usually get with the mares, not a great deal between them. Taking on those in the market here with a query over favourite BEIRUT back on top of the ground. Pace/tactics key, but think we can do worse than bets on both **MISS SOFTHANDS** @ $13+ (SPORTSBET) first up and **KANIANA** @ $16+ (BET365) back on top of the ground. Happy to play both on each way basis’ and think both represent super value, enough to make both BEST VALUE bets of the day. Main dangers VIBRANT ROUGE, MY SISTER LIL, ahead of value runners ANYAAS and NADEEM LASS.
SUGGEST: **MISS SOFTHANDS** (EACH WAY) @ $13+, **KANIANA** (EACH WAY) @ $16+, FIRST FOUR (1, 2, 4, 7 / F / 1, 2, 4, 7 / 3, 13), (1, 2, 4, 7 / 1, 2, 4, 7 / F / 3, 13), (F / 1, 2, 4, 7 / 1, 2, 4, 7 / 3, 13) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Average odds $14.30+ per suggested runner!
** BEST VALUE **: MISS SOFTHANDS @ $13+, KANIANA @ $16+
*BEST LONGSHOTS*: LE BONSIR @ $41+, TUDOR @ $51+