ALL SPORT PUNTING DUNGEON
SATURDAY, JULY 2, 2015
Racing at CAULFIELD with the penetrometer reading 5.36, so currently looking at a SOFT (6) surface.
RAIL: +7M (ENTIRE CIRCUIT). Racing at Caulfield once again with the rail out +7M. Hoping/expecting an even track, pace dependant, however given the soft conditions, expecting them to get off the fence and run on, as the days goes on. As always, be sure to keep a close eye on the track and how it’s playing in the early races for best guide.
Race 1: We start with the two year olds over 1200m and think many will take on the filly GIMLET here who has the somewhat arduous task of giving weight to the boys, but I think she can 2 $4.20+ with LUXBET, UBET, WILLIAM HILL and SPORTSBET. Main dangers TENNAPY LADIES and YU LONG SHENG HUI.
SUGGEST: GIMLET (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $4.20+ (CONFIDENCE 30%)
Race 2: Open event over 2000m and after saluting with LONGERON last time at the Valley, going to switch to the runner up on that occasion in ALCOHOL who gets a 2lkg swing, not to mention will be better favoured by a non-leader biased track here. $4.60+ with SPORTSBET represents good value, hoping for $1.80+ place to play each way, if not WIN only. Main dangers LONGERON despite the weight situation and SELF SENSE. Be wary of any serious money for BONDEIGER who can be hard to follow with confidence.
SUGGEST: ALCOHOL (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $4.60+ (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 3: Now for a benchmark 90 over 1700m and this is tough with very little between many runners here. Given current odds, think best value lies with **YULONG BABY** @ $6+ with each of LADBROKES, BOOKMAKERS.COM.AU and BET365. Given past history, can probably make a case we’re looking at the ‘best horse’ rule. Given the odds will make a BEST VALUE bet of the day. Dangers run deep, but led by PIN YOUR HOPES, ROYAL RAPTURE (who saluted for us last week), SCHERZOSO and TEMPS VOLEUR.
SUGGEST: **YULONG BABY** (EACH WAY) @ $6+, FIRST FOUR (1, 4, 5, 6 / 1, 4, 5, 6 / F / 8), (1, 4, 5, 6 / F / 1, 4, 5, 6 / 8) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 4: We now look at the three year olds over 1400m. Always need to respect those heading north over Bass Straight and I personally am a fan of those that come up from Tassie. This is not overly strong and as a result, happy to play around JERILDERIE LETTER at a very tidy $12+ with LADBROKEs, BOOKMAKERS.COM.AU, BET365 and BETSTAR. Main dangers REWARDING EFFORT, DIVINE MR ARTIE and STORMCRAFT.
SUGGEST: JERILDERIE LETTER (EACH WAY) @ $12+, FIRST FOUR (2, 3, 14 / 2, 3, 14 / F / 1), (2, 3, 14 / F / 2, 3, 14 / 1) (CONFIDENCE 30%)
Race 5: Benchmark 78 over 1200m and this is tough. Slight lean at juicy odds to the two at the top of the weights in BELESRON @ $19+ with BET365 and LUXBET and IL GATTINO @ $17+ with BET365. Despite the terrible gate, think MAGICUS is the main danger and the one to beat. Given even luck in running. If the rail is off as expected, being posted wide with cover, might actually turn out to be a blessing in disguise. Ahead of CAMDUS and CAPRESE.
SUGGEST: BELESRON (EACH WAY) @ $19+, IL GATTINO (EACH WAY) @ $17+, FIRST FOUR (6, 10, 12 / 2, 3, 6, 10, 12 / F / 2, 3), (6, 10, 12 / F / 2, 3, 6, 10, 12 / 2, 3) (CONFIDENCE 30%)
Race 6: Benchmark 90 over 1400m and another very competitive affair. BRADMAN got the chocolates for dungeon followers last time at a very juicy $15+ price and don’t see any major reason why he can’t produce the goods again at a similar price, albeit a touch shorter here at $11+ with most operators. Also, want something on ROYAL ISLAND at a juicy $17+ with each of SPORTSBET, LUXBET and BET365. Main dangers the obvious in DUKE OF BRUNSWICK and ULMANN (who has been gelded and is now with Weir), both look hard to beat, but rock bottom odds at around $2.90 and $5 respectively.
SUGGEST: BRADMAN (EACH WAY) @ $11+, ROYAL ISLAND (EACH WAY) @ $17+, FIRST FOUR (6, 8 / F / F / 3, 14), (boxed 3, 6, 8, 14) (CONFIDENCE 30%)
Race 7: Now for the three year old fillies over 1100m and been waiting for **CERTAIN ELLIE** to return second up after we were on first up when she ran super against the leader’s bias at Moonee Valley. Opened as big as $17+, however $12+ with SPORTSBET and UBET still represents great each way value and as a result will make a BEST VALUE bet of the day. Main dangers ANATOLA and LADY ESPRIT, ahead of MISS GIDGET. Confident the winners comes from that quartet.
SUGGEST: **CERTAIN ELLIE** (EACH WAY) @ $12+, FIRST FOUR (6, 7, 8 / F / F / 4), (6, 7, 8 / F / 6, 7, 8 / 4), (6, 7, 8 / 6, 7, 8 / F / 4) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 8: Now for the penultimate event, which sees the three year olds do battle over 2000m and an extremely wide open affair with $6+ the field on offer. Deep race but have come out with two on top that I’m finding hard to split, so looking at plays on both. Firstly, FOUR BY FOUR who ran well behind another we backed successfully in Whoop Whoop who looks to have above average ability. $8+ with most operators, looks good enough value here. Additionally, want another play on FEARLESS RAIDER @ $10+ with both LUXBET and BET365. Both look set to appreciate the rise to 2000m. Main dangers led by HURSLEY (big weight, the main query), SHE’S GOT SPEED who finished alongside FOUR BY FOUR last time and VANILLA GOLD at odds (comes out of the same Whoop Whoop reference when they went hard up front).
SUGGEST: FOUR BY FOUR (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $8+, FEARLESS RAIDER (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $10+, FIRST FOUR (1, 11, 13 / F / F / 5, 7), (1, 11, 13 / F / 1, 11, 13 / 5, 7), (1, 11, 13 / 1, 11, 13 / F / 5, 7) (CONFIDENCE 30%)
Race 9: And we finish with a benchmark 90 for the mares over 1200m and personally think this might run a fair bit deeper than what the market suggests. As a result, going to have a few dabbles at big odds. The three in question are CELERITAS @ $31+ with most/all operators, must forgive those who got back at the Valley last time and drops down from 60kg to a much more feasible 57kg. Next is CATCH THAT CAT @ $29+ with SPORTSBET, been there and thereabouts in decent races in recent times and can definitely improve second up where she is 1 x win, 1 x 2nd from 3 starts. Finally, keen to have something on *PILLY’S WISH* @ $61+ with SPORTSBET. Is decent on her day, and better suited at this level. Given the odds will make PILLY’S WISH and CELERITAS both BEST LONGSHOT bets of the day. Main dangers A LOTTA LOVE and SHADES OF BELLA, but race doesn’t end there. Deep race.
SUGGEST: *CELERITAS* (EACH WAY) @ $31+, CATCH THAT CAT (EACH WAY) @ $29+, *PILLY’S WISH* @ $61+, FIRST FOUR (3, 7 / F / F / 4, 5, 12), (roving 3, 4, 7 / F), (roving 3, 5, 7 / F), (roving 3, 7, 12 / F) (CONFIDENCE 30%)
Average odds $17.27+ per suggested runner!
** BEST VALUE **: YULONG BABY @ $6+, CERTAIN ELLIE @ $12+
*BEST LONGSHOTS*: CELERITAS @ $31+, PILLY’S WISH @ $61+