ALL SPORT PUNTING DUNGEON
SATURDAY JULY 2, 2016
Racing at ROSEHILL GARDENS with the penetrometer currently reading 5.1, currently looking at an improving SOFT (5) surface.
RAIL: +7M (ENTIRE CIRCUIT). We head to ROSEHILL GARDENS with the rail out +7M after being out +3M two weeks’ back. Hoping for an even track, rail position can lend itself to favouring leaders, but softer conditions, could get them off the fence, especially as the day goes on. As usual, be sure to keep an eye on early races for best guide.
Race 1: Early start (11.25am AEST) with the two year olds and Chris Waller looks to have the winning hand here with 4 last start winners. Wouldn’t be surprised if he handed the first four here, however do think the winner will come from FOXPLAY, HIGH MIST or OCTAVIAN AUGUSTUS, who I’m expecting will be the first three. Happy to simply play around them in multiples instead of trying to land the winner, with COGLIERE the other I can make a case for.
SUGGEST: TRIFECTA (boxed 1, 3, 4), FIRST FOUR (roving 1, 3, 4 / 2, 5), (1 / 2, 3, 4 / 2, 3, 4 / F) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 2: Benchmark 78 for the fillies and mares over 1900m. Tricky race, with pace/tactics set to be key, especially given there doesn’t look to be much pace on paper. Primarily for this reason, have come out with KONTIKI DANE on top @ $4.80+ with most operators. Should get a soft run on the pace and be hard to catch. Best value is at the bottom of the weights with DESTINATION TUCSON @ $17+ with BET365.
SUGGEST: KONTIKI DANE (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $4.80+, DESTINATION TUCSON (EACH WAY) @ $17+, FIRST FOUR (F / 1 / F / 8) (CONFIDENCE 40%)
Race 3: Benchmark 90 over 1100m and like GLENDAWN DANE here down from Queensland for Peter Robl @ $3.70+ with LUXBET. Then gets crowded, with little between several, led by FREEZE THE CHARGES and EL SASSO.
SUGGEST: GLENDAWN DANE (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $3.70+, FIRST FOUR (5, 7 / 6 / F / F), (roving5, 6, 7 / F) (CONFIDENCE 45%)
Race 4: Now for the Listed Winter Cup to be run over 2400m and actually looking to throw form, weights and measures out the window a little her and take the punt on those who will run a strong 2400m. Hoping they go around at a decent clip and if so, sets things up for **JUNOOB** and JIAYAGUAN at $8.50+ (SPORTSBET) and $9+ (BET365) respectively. Will make JUNOOB a BEST VALUE bet of the day.
SUGGEST: **JUNOOB** (EACH WAY - PRIMARY) @ $8.50+, JIAYAGUAN (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $9+, FIRST FOUR (F / 1, 5 / 1, 5 / F (CONFIDENCE 30%)
Race 5: Class 3 Highway Handicap over 1800m and has been the case lately with these events not so easy on paper. Looking at two at juicy odds, who have attracted support and have the form on the board and/or will appreciate a light freshen up to be ready for this. The two in question are CHAOS @ $11+ with SPORTSBET and JUST GOOD @ $12+ with SPORTSBET also.
SUGGEST: CHAOS (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $11+, JUST GOOD (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $12+, FIRST FOUR (F / 3, 9 / F / 3, 9) (CONFIDENCE 30%)
Race 6: Now for a benchmark 72 over 1500m and there looks to be a distinct lack of pace again here, hence if the leaders are advantaged in any way then be sure to increase confidence in on pacers and reduce confidence in those who settle further back. For this reason, top pick here is CLASSIC UNIFORM @ $3.60+ with most operators, ahead of one at odds at the bottom of the weights here in *ROSETTAS WHEY* at a very juicy $21+ with BET365. Given the odds will make a BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day.
SUGGEST: CLASSIC UNIFORM (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $3.60+, *ROSETTAS WHEY* (EACH WAY) @ $21+, FIRST FOUR (F / 5 / F / 11) (CONFIDENCE 40%)
Race 7: Listed Civic Stakes over 1350m and this is a good race, with very little between several. VERGARA is the most interesting runner, now with the Gerald Ryan stable and market suggests ready for a big run first up for new stable. This is a significant drop from Group 1 and Group 2 races contested last prep. As a result, the ‘best horse’ rule is activated and at $5.50+ with many operators, looks good each way value. Given the price, will make a BEST VALUE bet of the day. Secondary play NINTH LEGION who turned to form last start and @ $10+ (SPORTSBET) worthy of a smaller secondary play.
SUGGEST: **VERGARA** (EACH WAY - PRIMARY) @ $5.50+, NINTH LEGION (EACH WAY – SECONDARY) @ $10+, FIRST FOUR (F / 4 / F / 1) (CONFIDENCE 40%)
Race 8: Benchmark 84 for the fillies and mares over 1200m and interestingly Blake Shinn retains the ride on THUD and don’t think he’ll be making the same mistakes again. Looks the one to beat @ $4+ with BET365. Best value then with MAGIC OF DREAMS @ $13+ with SPORTSBET.
SUGGEST: THUD (WIN / EACH WAY - PRIMARY) @ $4+, MAGIC OF DREAMS (EACH WAY - SECONDARY) @ $13+, FIRST FOUR (F / 10 / F / 9) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 9: We finish with a benchmark 78 over 1500m and Chris Waller looks to have the bookends of the card covered with strong coverage in races 1 and 9 in particular at Rosehill. And in this instance going to go with his two runners who offer the biggest odds in CONSIGN @ $11+ with SPORTSBET and *OBSIDIAN* @ $17+ with LUXBET. Given the odds will make the latter a BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day. Hardest to beat the stablemate in THURSTON who might be too strong but rock bottom odds in my opinion. Happy to play around those three in the lucky last.
SUGGEST: CONSIGN (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $11+, *OBSIDIAN* (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $17+, FIRST FOUR (11 / F / F / 3, 14) (CONFIDENCE 30%)
Average odds $10.07+ per suggested runner!
** BEST VALUE **: JUNOOB @ $8.50+, VERGARA @ $5.50+,
*BEST LONGSHOTS*: ROSETTAS WHEY @ $21+, OBSIDIAN @ $17+