ALL SPORT PUNTING DUNGEON
SATURDAY JULY 23, 2016
Racing at CENTERBURY with the penetrometer currently reading 5.84, hence another rain affected track in Sydney despite better weather in recent days, but still surprisingly looking at a HEAVY (9) surface.
RAIL: TRUE (ENTIRE CIRCUIT). We head to CANTERBURY with the rail in the TRUE position. Hoping for an even track, but hard to know for sure given the softer conditions in recent times. These are the days, walking the track is a big advantage but unfortunately with us based in Melbourne, we aren’t afforded that luxury. As usual, be sure to keep an eye on early races for best guide.
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Race 1: We start with the two year olds as usual, on this occasion over 1200m and given the heavier than expected conditions not easy to gauge with limited forma and experience to work with. In saying that, slight lean HAIR TRIGGER @ $6+ with SPORTSBET. Liked the win at Wyong and with Bowman aboard the tricky gate can hopefully be averted. Each way play, but nothing too crazy. Main dangers SEVENTHCHIC and DECORATED SOLDIER.
SUGGEST: HAIR TRIGGER (EACH WAY) @ $6.50+, FIRST FOUR (roving 3, 4, 8 / F), (3, 8 / F / F / 4) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 2: Class 3 highway, this time over 1250m and this looks very tricky. Have found a couple at juicy odds here who I’m interested in playing around. The two in question are *DESTINED TO WIN* @ $14+ (UBET) and LASSZOU @ $15+ (BET365). Both capable at this level, won’t be hindered by the softer/heavier conditions and drawn to get nice runs. Given the odds will make *DESTINED TO WIN* a BEST LONGSHOT of the day. Main dangers ATTAINMENT, STRIKING LAGO (juicy odds $17+) and CHEEKY.
SUGGEST: *DESTINED TO WIN* (EACH WAY) @ $14+, LASSZOU (EACH WAY) @ $15+, FIRST FOUR (3, 6, 9 / F / F / 8, 10) (CONFIDENCE 30%)
Race 3: Benchmark 74 handicap over 1250m and this one I think has a lot to do with how the track is playing and whether we get an upgrade by this time. If we happen to be on a SOFT (7) then I want to be on PIONEERING @ $4.40+ with LUXBET. However, given current rating of a HEAVY (9), going to guess we won’t be quite there and as a result prefer to take the safer play of ART NOUVEAU @ $3.80+ with SPORTSBET. Main danger the obvious in red hot $2.15 fave DEE NINE ELLE, followed by OCEAN TEMPEST first up. Note, no third dividend.
SUGGEST: ART NOUVEAU (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $3.80+, FIRST FOUR (5, 9 / 1, 2 / 1, 2 / 5, 9) (CONFIDENCE 40%)
Race 4: Benchmark 93 over 1900m and an intriguing race with an overseas invader debuting here in top weight SIGNING @ $4.40+ (BET365) with no public trials to work from, however money suggests he might be ready to fire over an unsuitable 1900m, given he’s never raced below 2000m. Massive respect given he beat Guardini by 5 lengths two starts back (although was over 1 year ago) and 1L from Melbourne Cup winner Protectionist only 4 starts back, albeit 2+ years ago. Keep very safe and if the money continues then play on a WIN only basis. However, at this stage prefer to wait and see him in the yard and to see how market plays in the coming hours. Regardless, I want to play around **LOOPHOLE** at a tidy $10+ with most operators, who ticks plenty of boxes here back to a more suitable distance and softer conditions are a big bonus. Plus Bowman aboard to boot. Given the odds, will make a BEST VALUE bet of the day.
SUGGEST: **LOOPHOLE** (EACH WAY) @ $10+, SIGNING (WIN) @ $4.40+, FIRST FOUR (F / 1 / F / 3) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 5: Now for a benchmark 83 over 1550m and think Chris Waller has the winning hand to play with here in MCCREERY @ $5.50+ and **THUNDER DOWN UNDER** @ $6.50+ with most operators. Happy to keep things simple and play both through all. Given the slightly better odds for the latter, will make a BEST VALUE bet of the day.
SUGGEST: **THUNDER DOWN UNDER** (WIN) @ $6.50+, MCCREERY (WIN) @ $5.50+, QUINELLA (2, 3), FIRST FOUR (F / 2, 3 / 2, 3 / F) (CONFIDENCE 40%)
Race 6: Next is a benchmark 78 over 1100m and this is one very tough race which could be a very wide start to your quaddie, arguably a FIELD leg with very, very little between many runners here. If push came to shove, slight lean ISORICH @ $9+ with LUXBET and UBET, before throwing a blanket over the rest.
SUGGEST: ISORICH (EACH WAY) @ $9+ (CONFIDENCE 25%)
QUADDIE SUGGESTION 1: FIELD / FIELD / 5 / 6
QUADDIE SUGGESTION 2: FIELD / FIELD / 3, 5 / 1, 6
Race 7: And now an open event over 1100m and a good little race with quality over quantity the situation here. Plenty of legitimate winning chances, but looking at playing around two at juicy odds in the form of WOULDN’T IT BE NICE @ $16+ with each of LADBROKES, BOOKMAKERS and BETSTAR, as well as *AGENT* for new stable (ex-Hawkes) who I’ve always thought was underrated and can give sum cheeky with a featherweight of 51kg (after claim) at an attractive $26+ with BET365. Given the odds will make a BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day. Can make cases for most others, but main dangers leg by the Snowden pair of REDZEL and GOLD SYMPHONY.
SUGGEST: WOULDN’T IT BE NICE (EACH WAY) @ $16+, *AGENT* (EACH WAY) @ $26+, FIRST FOUR (roving 5, 8, 9 / F), (roving 5, 9, 10 / F) (CONFIDENCE 30%)
Race 8: Benchmark 85 over 1250m and going to make the presumption that by race time we will be on a SLOW (7) or better and as long as that is the case, keen on AVONACO here @ $4+ with BET365. If heavy 8 or worse, then simply leave. Narrow quaddie leg, POWERLINE would be the next to add if looking for additions.
SUGGEST: AVONACO (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $4+ (CONFIDENCE 45%)
Race 9: We finish with a benchmark 84 over 1100m and SHARAZAD looks hard to beat and has been backed accordingly. Keen to play there on a WIN only basis @ $2.40+ with most operators. Narrow quaddie leg, GLENBAWN DAME would be the next to add if looking for additions.
SUGGEST: SHARAZAD (WIN) @ $2.40+, FIRST FOUR (1 / 6 / F / F) (CONFIDENCE 55%)
Average odds $9.47+ per suggested runner!
** BEST VALUE **: LOOPHOLE @ $10+, THUNDER DOWN UNDER @ $6.50+
*BEST LONGSHOTS*: DESTINED TO WIN @ $14+, AGENT @ $26+