ALL SPORT PUNTING DUNGEON
SATURDAY, JULY 30, 2015
Racing at CAULFIELD with the penetrometer reading 5.32, so currently looking at a SOFT (5) surface.
RAIL: TRUE (ENTIRE CIRCUIT). Racing at Caulfield with the rail back in the TRUE position, after it was out +10M here two weeks’ ago. Hoping for an even track, pace dependant, however expecting no major disadvantage to those off the pace and getting away from the fence. As always, be sure to keep a close eye on the track and how it’s playing in the early races for best guide.
Race 1: We start a benchmark 84 over 2000m and think this race sets up perfectly for KHUTULUN @ $4.40+ (SPORTSBET) down in the weights against the males, amplified by an additional 3kg claim. Will look to keep things simply with a standalone play on the five year old mare.
SUGGEST: KHUTULUN (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $4.40+ (CONFIDENCE 40%)
Race 2: Now for the Vobis Gold Stayers event to be run over 2400m and although I concede BONDEIGER looks very hard to beat here @ $3+, however is simply not a runner you can trust given inconsistent history and as a result, a touch wary at the short quote. Instead, think a safer betting proposition is in the form of up and coming stayer ONCIDIUM RULER for Mick Kent @ $5.50+ with most operators. On a day with less value than usual, will nominate as a BEST VALUE bet of the day. Each way play, with savers into the fave BONDEIGER and other main dangers SCHERZOSO and O’LONERA.
SUGGEST: **ONCIDIUM RULER** (EACH WAY) @ $5.50+, FIRST FOUR (3, 4, 10 / F / 3, 4, 10 / 5), (3, 4, 10 / 5 / 3, 4, 10 / F) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 3: Now for the two year olds over 1000m and this is either easy or hard. Easy if you run with who looks the clear top pick here in CRAFTY COP @ $2.90+ (UBET), and hard if you are looking elsewhere. I’m going with the former and think CRAFTY COP will be hard to beat at an okay price on a WIN only basis. Just needs to maintain form to date and trial says ready to fire first up. Main dangers SWORD OF LIGHT, RAMPAGE, DERRYN, FROMPARIS WITHLOVE and KENTUCKY MISS.
SUGGEST: CRAFTY COP (WIN) @ $2.90+, FIRST FOUR (2, 4, 8, 10, 14 / 3 / 2, 4, 8, 10, 14 / F), (2, 4, 8, 10, 14 / 2, 4, 8, 10, 14 / 3 / F) (CONFIDENCE 45%)
Race 4: Next are the three year old fillies over 1200m and looking to play around two here. Top pick is CARTERISTA @ $3.90+ with LADBROKES, BOOKMAKERS.COM.AU and BETSTAR who couldn’t have been more impressive on debut. Then want something at $17+ with CROWNBET and BET365 on *BLITHE BELLE* who gets in very nicely at the weights for last start narrow defeat when took on several key rivals for here, including favourite ANATOLA. Given the odds will make a BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day. Main dangers ANATOLA, ahead of GIDDYUP, DECCONI, BETTER STRIKE and MAKE YOUR OWN WHEY.
SUGGEST: CARTERISTA (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $3.90+, *BLITHE BELLE* (EACH WAY) @ $17+, FIRST FOUR (3, 4, 12, 14, 16 / 10, 15 / F / 10, 15) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 5: Three year old open event over 2000m and the form race that I think weighs up here was at the same track, over the same distance two weeks’ back won by O’Lonera. The three that come out of that race, not beaten far are HURSLEY, BRING A ROSE and PERFECT LIFELINE. Minimal change in the weights from that run, with PERFECT LIFELINE getting 0.5kg relief after the claim but was beaten more than a length by the other two, hence required and possibly some more. Going to lean towards **BRING A ROSE** here @ $5.50+ with most operators after hitting the line late after an interrupted run on the turn and even in the straight. In saying that, Dunn will need to be at his best as from barrier 3 similar issues could arise, but going to trust Dwayne who will need a brilliant day at the office if he is to reel in Craig Williams for the jockey’s premiership on the final day. And given the odds, will make another BEST VALUE bet of the day. Main dangers the two others mentioned in HURSLEY and PERFECT LIFELINE.
SUGGEST: **BRING A ROSE** (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $5.50+, FIRST FOUR (1, 9 / F / F / 8) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 6: Fillies and mares over 1200m and as you expect a good, competitive affair with many legitimate winning hopes. Slight lean with VIBRANT ROUGE @ $8.50+ (LUXBET) after the very handy 4kg claim from Beau Mertens. Looks ready to win after several eye catching runs in recent times. The other at good odds is ANDRASSY @ $14+ with LUXBET also. Goes well fresh, goes well at Caulfield, drawn well, should be in it a long way. Given the odds will make a BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day. Main dangers ROCKOLICIOUS who I rate highly, a must for a saver narrow quaddie or similar at a good price, just think the 1200m might be a touch short, while barrier 13 isn’t ideal. Next best FORGERESS, BUTTERBOOM and CHOICE.
SUGGEST: VIBRANT ROUGE (EACH WAY) @ $8.50+, *ANDRASSY* (EACH WAY) @ $14+, FIRST FOUR (2, 3, 8, 10 / F / 2, 3, 8, 10 / 1, 9), (2, 3, 8, 10 / 2, 3, 8, 10 / F / 1, 9) (CONFIDENCE 30%)
Race 7: Now for the feature of the day, the Group 3 Bletchingly Stakes over 1200m and looking to keep this simple with the trusty ‘best horse rule’. FAST ‘N’ ROCKING @ $3.10+ is flying, and am confident gets the run to suit much better today, expecting the track given rail position to better suit backmarking style and like the fact drawn wide, to stay out of trouble with hopefully a run towards the rear, three wide but with cover. Main dangers the obvious in MAHUTA and RUNWAY STAR.
SUGGEST: FAST N ROCKING (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $3.10+, FIRST FOUR (10, 12 / 3 / F / F) (CONFIDENCE 50%)
Race 8: Penultimate event is for the three year olds over 1400m and too early to run with the ‘best horse’ tag, however am quietly confident this runner will be once he strings a few wins on the board, including today. The Hayes and Dabernig stable rate this gelding highly and must trust that they have overcome issues experienced on debut, including an easy stroll in the park at Geelong where he won by a lazy 8L. Trusting his ability despite missing in town on debut and think $2.60+ (UBET, BET365) is decent enough for a play on a WIN only basis. Main dangers KINSHACHI and PRINCE OF BROOKLYN.
SUGGEST: WALL STREET WOLF (WIN) @ $2.60+, FIRST FOUR (roving 2, 11, 13 / F) (CONFIDENCE 55%)
Race 9: And we finish with a benchmark 78 over 1400m and a tricky finish. Wasn’t overly rapt by the price, but slowly but surely getting to the right price now and as a result slight lean MAGICUS @ $3.80+ (CROWNBET, BET365). Reckon it will be fitting for Craig Williams to seal the deal and win the jockey’s premiership by winning the lucky last. Also want a play on SO DOES HE @ $10+ with CROWNBET. We were on last time, when simply had too much ground to make up wide/rear and hit the line well. Most importantly gets some weight relief from several rivals here and hopefully the track/rail is suiting race style, especially later in the day.
SUGGEST: MAGICUS (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $3.80+, SO DOES HE (EACH WAY) @ $10+, FIRST FOUR (F / 2, 5 / F / 2, 5), (F / F / 2, 5 / 2, 5) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Average odds $6.77+ per suggested runner!
** BEST VALUE **: ONCIDIUM RULER @ $5.50+, BRING A ROSE @ $5.50+
*BEST LONGSHOTS*: BLITHE BELLE @ $17+, ANDRASSY @ $14+