30 July 2016 (Racing at Rosehill Gardens)

ALL SPORT PUNTING DUNGEON

WWW.PUNTINGDUNGEON.COM.AU

ROSEHILL GARDENS

SATURDAY JULY 30, 2016

 

Racing at ROSEHILL GARDENS with the penetrometer currently reading 5.32, hence currently looking at an improving SOFT (6) surface.

RAIL: +3M (ENTIRE CIRCUIT). We head to ROSEHILL GARDENS with the rail out +3M after being in the TRUE position two weeks ago. Hoping for an even track, but hard to know for sure given the softer conditions in recent times. As usual, be sure to keep an eye on early races for best guide.

 

Race 1: We start with the two year olds hence the usual degree of guesswork somewhat, however loved HIGH MIST last time when not much went right and although drawn awkwardly, that should be offset with one of the very best in Hugh Bowman aboard. Good each way price at $6+ with PALMERBET. Main danger one who caught the eye also in same race and even beat HIGH MIST home and that’s HARPER’S CHOICE, does meet HIGH MIST 0.5kg worse at the weights which could prove the difference here.

SUGGEST: HIGH MIST (EACH WAY) @ $6.00+, FIRST FOUR (1 / F / F / 2) (CONFIDENCE 30%)

 

Race 2: Benchmark 82 over 2000m and this looks fairly straight forward. Don’t see any reason why ESTABAN doesn’t win again here after being as impressive as possible in recent wins, absolutely destroying rivals on each occasion. Actually don’t think $1.60+ with most operators is a bad price and worthy of a WIN only investment. A great options for anchor multi legs to help reduce outlays for a decent result. Also want a secondary play on ZAYAM @ $7.50+ (UBET) who we were on last time when very well backed after we secured a very juicy price, before finishing 2nd. Smaller each way play and/or around the fave.

SUGGEST: ESTABAN (WIN - PRIMARY) @ $1.60+, ZAYAM (EACH WAY – SECONDARY) @ $7.50+, FIRST FOUR (F / 6 / F / 1) (CONFIDENCE 75%)

 

Race 3: Class 3 Highway Plate over 1500m. Tricky race, but don’t see why THUNDER ROAD is at $16+ (SPORTSBET, BET365) after very impressive win last time. No reason to jump off, when others jump off given lesser known trainer. Throw a blanket over the rest, with main dangers led by EXPLOSIVE DREAM, TIPTA TANTIVY, CHOSEN PRAYER and AKIKO GOLD. Respect any money moves closer to jump time.

SUGGEST: THUNDER ROAD (EACH WAY) @ $16+, FIRST FOUR (1, 9, 10, 17 / F / 1, 9, 10, 17 / 7) (CONFIDENCE 25%)

 

Race 4: Benchmark 85 for the fillies and mares over 1500m and think EXTENSIBLE is ready to return to the winner’s stalls @ $2.90+ with UBET. Suggest a WIN only play there, in addition to an each way play on LYCIA @ $6.50+ with both SPORTSBET and CROWNBET. Reckon she was on the worst part of the track last time and just missed and gets in with a featherweight here after the claim. Main dangers HARLEM LADY and SWEET FIRE.

SUGGEST: EXTENSIBLE (WIN) @ $2.90+, LYCIA (EACH WAY) @ $6.50+, FIRST FOUR (1, 6 / 7, 8 / F / 7, 8) (CONFIDENCE 45%)

 

Race 5: Benchmark 72 over 1200m and this is very tough! A lot of guesswork and very little between many of these. Simply due to the price, going to have a play on REWARD FOR FASHION @ $23+ with CROWNBET and BET365. Given the odds will make a BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day. Throw a blanket over the rest. Also suggest having a crack at first four as it should pay big if you can nail it. Main dangers TREMOR, MERI RANI and LABDIEN.

SUGGEST: *REWARD FOR FASHION* (EACH WAY) @ $23+, FIRST FOUR (1, 4, 10 / F / F / 13) (roving 1, 4, 10 / F) (CONFIDENCE 25%)

 

Race 6: Now for the three year olds over 1400m and PIONEERING @ $3.50+ (BET365) gets in well at the weights here given the set weights and penalties conditions despite recent winning form. For this reason slight lean there in another competitive race. Gun hoop Bowman aboard a bonus as always. Main danger definitely led by DEE NINE ELLE who actually gets in well at the opposite end of the weights and can win. Suggest in a short saving quaddie and associated multies, savers, multiples. Next best WE’RE SURE and ART NOUVEAU.

SUGGEST: PIONEERING (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $3.50+, FIRST FOUR (3, 4, 10 / 1 / F / F) (CONFIDENCE 45%)

 

Race 7: Now for the Listed Winter Challenge over 1500m and a very good, and very even race once again. There doesn’t seem to be a lot of pace on paper and for that reason think OXFORD POET @ $4.80+ (UNIBET) will be hard to catch, while I think best value definitely lies with **TALES OF GRIMM** @ $15+ with BET365. Given the odds will make a BEST VALUE bet of the day.

SUGGEST: OXFORD POET (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $4.80+, **TALES OF GRIMM** (EACH WAY) @ $15+, FIRST FOUR (F / 1, 3 / F / 1, 3) (CONFIDENCE 30%) 

 

Race 8: Benchmark 85 over 1350m. I have no doubt MCCREERY is the one to beat, but do think we’re being offered rock bottom odds at $2.90+. Prefer to play in a one out / narrow quaddie, multi(es) instead of large standalone investment. As a result, instead prefer value on offer on each way basis for **DRAGON FLYER** @ $9.50+ with LUXBET, in addition to AVONACO @ $10+ with SPORTSBET (simply doesn’t go any good on Heavy, but fine on Soft). Slight lean DRAGON FLYER, and will make a BEST VALUE bet of the day. Main danger MCCREERY ahead of SHADOW LORD.

SUGGEST: **DRAGON FLYER** (EACH WAY) @ $9.50+, AVONACO (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $10+, FIRST FOUR (4, 5 / 6, 9 / F / 6, 9) (CONFIDENCE 35%) 

 

Race 9: We finish with a benchmark 72 over 1100m and a tricky finish to what looks a tricky card at Rosehill. Looking for value here as I don’t think there’s much between them and have landed with I CAN ROCK @ $14+ (BET365). Has been good to Dungeon followers in the past and always seems to be underrated despite good, consistent form. Then, can make a case for *ASTRO MISS* at the bottom of the weights at a big $61+ with BET365. Given the odds will make a BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day. Happy to play around the two, with main dangers INVITATIONS, COOLCRAFT, ROSE OF MAN and CHEEKY BABE.

SUGGEST: I CAN ROCK (EACH WAY) @ $14+, *ASTRO MISS* (EACH WAY) @ $61+, FIRST FOUR (1, 4, 10, 11 / 1, 4, 5, 10, 11, 15 / F / 5, 15) (CONFIDENCE 30%)

 

SUMMARY:

Average odds $12.95+ per suggested runner!

** BEST VALUE **: TALES OF GRIMM @ $15+, DRAGON FLYER @ $9.50+

*BEST LONGSHOTS*: REWARD FOR FASHION @ $23+, ASTRO MISS @ $61+

#happypunting