ALL SPORT PUNTING DUNGEON
SATURDAY, JULY 9, 2015
Racing at FLEMINGTON with the penetrometer reading 5.06, so currently looking at a SOFT (7) surface.
RAIL: TRUE (ENTIRE CIRCUIT). Racing at Flemington with the rail back to the TRUE position, after it was out +9M two weeks’ back. Given rain, expect them to get off the fence, especially as the day goes on. Hoping for an even track, pace dependant, but be sure to keep a close eye on the track and how it’s playing in the early races for best guide.
Race 1: We start with the three year olds over the mile and don’t see any reason to jump off one we were on last week, who was brilliant and terribly unlucky to not run a drum at juicy odds. **JERILDERIE LETTER** is the one @ $6+ with SPORTSBET. Was brilliant out wide from the rear to miss the win/place (bunched 5 way close finish). Should be able to settle in a better position from a much better gate (2). Given the odds will make a BEST VALUE bet of the day to start the day. Main dangers GALAXY RAIDER, LADY SELKIRK and WAR LEGEND
SUGGEST: JERILDERIE LETTER (EACH WAY) @ $6+, FIRST FOUR (2, 5, 9 / 2, 5, 9 / F / 1), (2, 5, 9 / F / 2, 5, 9 / 1) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 2: Now for the three year old fillies, also over the mile, so the first race will give us a nice guide for this. EURO ANGEL is all the rage and rightly so, however have small concerns at the skinny price ($1.95+) regarding the big jump in the weights. Might simply be too good for them, however goes up a significant 7kg, and as a result several meet her much better at the weights here, most notably PAYROLL and AVENUE WHISPER. I’m going to lean in PAYROLL’S corner here at $6.50+ (UBET, BET365), just ahead of AVENUE WHISPER @ $8.50+ with UBET. Both weighted to turn the tables, although class could be enough for the favourite to defy the weight rise, but prefer to play through multies/narrow early quaddie instead, if interested.
SUGGEST: PAYROLL (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $6.50+, AVENUE WHISPER (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $8.50+, FIRST FOUR (roving 1, 3, 6 / F) (CONFIDENCE 30%)
Race 3: Now for an open event over 2000m and there isn’t much between many of these in a tough, competitive encounter. Think best value lies with SANDHILL CHIEF @ $7.50+ with SPORTSBET and BET365. Longer shot chance to THE TERRICKS @ $26+ with each of BETSTAR, BOOKMAKERS.COM.AU and LADBROKES. Deep race, many chances, wide early quaddie leg.
SUGGEST: SANDHILL CHIEF (EACH WAY) @ $7.50+, THE TERRICKS (EACH WAY) @ $26+, FIRST FOUR (F / 3 / F / 10) (CONFIDENCE 30%)
Race 4: Listed event for the two year olds over the mile once again. Another competitive race, with many legitimate winning chances, with most focus on TRENCHANT at a skinny $2.90+ after winning impressively last time. Similar to a few today, skinnier odds, but significant increase in weight to content with. Respect the galloper, but given the weight situation happier to play a few at better odds led by FAST ‘N’ ROLLING @ $5+ with BET365, LADBROKES, BOOKMAKERS.COM.AU and BETSTAR. Then think value lies in the form of FUTURA @ $17+ (BET365) and long shot *BOUFFON* @ $101+ with SPORTSBET. Given the odds, will make a BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day. Main danger most definitely TRENCHANT who may be a class above.
SUGGEST: FAST ‘N’ ROLLING (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $5+, FUTURA (EACH WAY) @ $17+, *BOUFFON* (EACH WAY) @ $101+, FIRST FOUR (2 / 6 / F / 9, 11), (2 / F / 6 / 9, 11) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 5: Now for the Listed All Victorian Series Final down the straight over 1200m, and looking to take on (somewhat) another short priced favourite, this time in the form of the very much in form VOODOO LAD @ $2.25+. Is every chance, is definitely a key danger, however rock bottom odds in my opinion and prefer to play through multies/early quaddie instead of larger standalone investment here. Instead prefer primary play RUETTIGER @ $5+ with most operators, ahead of two secondary plays at juicy odds in OUR NKWAZI @ $23+ (BET365, CROWNBET, SPORTSBET) and SMACKDOWN @ $31+ (most operators). Main danger most definitely VOODOO LAD.
SUGGEST: RUETTIGER (WIN / EACH WAY - PRIMARY) @ $5+, OUR NKWAZI (E/W - SECONDARY) @ $23+, SMACKDOWN (E/W - SECONDARY) @ $31+, FIRST FOUR (3 / 10 / F / 4, 5, 7) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 6: Banjo Paterson Series Final and another race where the ability to carry increased weight on their backs, will be crucial. ARALDO JUNIOR was brilliant last time and as much as I tried to get it beat, given the big weight increase, there simply doesn’t look to be a great deal of competition here and should be allowed to dictate up on the pace. At $2.90+ (UBET) happy to have a WIN only investment, ahead of main dangers favourite MASTER OF ARTS and BOLD SNIPER.
SUGGEST: ARALDO JUNIOR (WIN) @ $2.90+, FIRST FOUR (1, 2 / 3 / F / F) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 7: Listed Winter Championship Series Final over 1600m and keen on **CHANCE TO DANCE** here at a respectable $4.60+ with BET365, representing good each way value. Given the odds will make a BEST VALUE bet of the day, with the ‘best horse’ rule instigated. Best value who I want a secondary play on is DEL PRADO at a tidy $13+ with SPORTSBET and CROWNBET. Finally, a more speculative play on *WAR STORY* @ $51+ (BET365) who will appreciate the spacious track at headquarters and could surprise after two encouraging runs to date in Australia for Matt Cumani at $51+ with BET365. Given the odds will make a BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day. Main dangers IGGIMACOOL, BY THE GRACE, JACQUINOT BAY and FAST AND FREE.
SUGGEST: **CHANCE TO DANCE** (EACH WAY - PRIMARY) @ $4.60+, DEL PRADO (EACH WAY) @ $13+, *WAR STORY* @ $51+, FIRST FOUR (1, 4, 10, 11 / 3 / F / 13, 14) (CONFIDENCE 50%)
Race 8: Penultimate event of the day, a listed event for the three year olds, to be run over 1200m, and this is tricky. In saying that, keen to play around two here in the form of SOOBOOG @ $4.60+ (UBET, LUXBET), ahead of a secondary more speculative play on I BOOGI @ $15+ (CROWNBET) who has been continuously saved for what is now the final. Main dangers LORD VON COSTA and PRINCE OF BROOKLYN.
SUGGEST: SOOBOOG (WIN / EACH WAY - PRIMARY) @ $4.60+, I BOOGI (WIN / EACH WAY – SECONDARY) @ $15+, FIRST FOUR (2, 6 / F / F / 4, 12) (CONFIDENCE 40%)
Race 9: And we finish with the open Leilani Series Final for the mares over 1400m and very hard to split the top three here in SHE’S CLEAN, TELOPEA and A LOTTA LOVE. Narrow final leg of the quaddie with only three needed in my opinion. Slight lean TELOPEA @ $3.40+ with most operators on a WIN only basis, ahead of best value of the three in SHE’S CLEAN @ $6+ (BET365). Weight the key concern for her, but has been racing very well against the males with not that much less weight than here, so should be right in the finish. Be sure to include the other A LOTTA LOVE in multies/savers and most definitely your quaddies. Happy to simply play around the three, who look to have the rest covered.
SUGGEST: TELOPEA (WIN) @ $3.40+, SHE’S CLEAN (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $6+, FIRST FOUR (roving 1, 3, 5 / F), (1, 3, 5 / 1, 3, 5 / F / F) (CONFIDENCE 60%)
Average odds $17.91+ per suggested runner!
** BEST VALUE **: JERILDERIE LETTER @ $6+, CHANCE TO DANCE @ $4.60+
*BEST LONGSHOTS*: WAR STORY @ $51+, BOUFFON @ $101+