9 July 2016 (Racing at Royal Randwick)

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ROYAL RANDWICK

SATURDAY, JULY 9, 2016

 

Racing at ROYAL RANDWICK with the penetrometer reading 6.18, currently looking at a HEAVY (9) surface.

RAIL: +11M (ENTIRE CIRCUIT). We head to ROYAL RANDWICK with the rail out +11M, after being out +9M two weeks’ back. Given the heavy nature of the track, they will be getting off the fence and coming wide. As always, be sure to keep an eye on how the track is playing in the early races for best guide.

 

Race 1: Two year olds on a bog track. No thanks. Watch and learn, too risky.

SUGGEST: NO BET AT THIS STAGE (CONFIDENCE 0%)

 

Race 2: Benchmark 74 over 1100m and another tricky little race, given the small field, bog track and skinny odds for many. Of the faves, slight lean BADAJOZ, however not overly excited by the $3.40 on offer with most operators. As a result, prefer safer (less outlay) plays on a couple of outsiders at the bottom of the weights here in the form of *ITALIAN SON* @ $21+ (SPORTSBET) and PROFESSOR MARX @ $13+ with most operators. Given the odds will make ITALIAN SON a BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day. Race where just about every runner has a legitimate winning chance. Note, no third dividend.

SUGGEST: *ITALIAN SON* (EACH WAY) @ $21+, PROFESSOR MARX (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $13+, FIRST FOUR (F / F / 6, 7 / 6, 7) (CONFIDENCE 20%)

 

Race 3: Now for a benchmark 71 over 2000m and think MORE THAN FABULOUS is the way to play here on a WIN only basis (given current odds) of $2.90+ with CROWNBET and UBET. Gets a very handy 3kg claim from Andrew Adkins and is proven on a heavy track. Important on a bog track like this, that the runners you are on handle not just soft, but heavy tracks as there is a difference with many handling soft, but not necessarily heavy. The only slight query is the trip as its unknown, but does give the indication it shouldn’t be an issue. Also, want to have a secondary play on STORM SYSTEM @ $16+ (BET365), whose form is very good if you put a line through last starts flop. Weight the main concern especially at the end of the trip, but good enough price to have a play given form over this trip and grade. Note, no third dividend once again.

SUGGEST: MORE THAN FABULOUS (WIN) @ $2.90+, STORM SYSTEM (EACH WAY) @ $16+, FIRST FOUR (F / 5 / 2 / F) (CONFIDENCE 30%)

 

Race 4: Class 2 over 1400m and think ATTAINMENT will be extremely hard to beat with the $2.80+ on offer with UBET a decent betting proposition on a WIN only basis. The wetter the better, is adaptable in terms of race pattern, barrier 10 won’t worry (could actually be a plus) and has the best form in the race. Hard to beat. Keen.

SUGGEST: ATTAINMENT (WIN) @ $2.80+, FIRST FOUR (F / 1 / 2, 3, 4, 6 / F) (CONFIDENCE 70%)

 

Race 5: Benchmark 83 over 1200m and I’m happy to be in the Joe Pride camp here with two consistent gallopers who will relish the heavy conditions. Best value **SHADOW LORD** at a very attractive $11+ (SPORTSBET, CROWNBET, BET365), ahead of stablemate PAINTE @ $5+ with most operators. Given the odds will make SHADOW LORD a BEST VALUE bet of the day. Throw a blanket over the rest, in a very even and competitive affair.

SUGGEST: SHADOW LORD (EACH WAY) @ $11+, PAINTE (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $5+, FIRST FOUR (F / 2, 3 / F / 2, 3) (CONFIDENCE 30%)

 

Race 6: Benchmark 78 OVER 2400m and Chris Waller looks to have a strong hand here with EL NOVIO @ $3.60+ (most operators) just ahead of DEFROST MY HEART @ $4.40+ (UBET, LUXBET, BET365) who looks to have re-found form after going down narrowly (and spacing the rest of the field) last time out. Longshot hope *SWIFT LADY* @ $26+ (SPORTSBET), who given the odds will make a BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day. Given current odds, will look at primary play EL NOVIO, then smaller each way play *SWIFT LADY*, and then play DEFROST MY HEART through savers/multies/exotics.

SUGGEST: EL NOVIO (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $3.60+, *SWIFT LADY* (EACH WAY) – SECONDARY) @ $26+, FIRST FOUR (2 / 5 / F / 7) (CONFIDENCE 40%)

 

Race 7: Now for a benchmark 92 over 1600m and this is another even and competitive affair. I think best value lies with ZAYAM 2 $16+ with BET365, ahead of HIMALAYA DREAM @ $11+ with SPORTSBET. Really don’t like this galloper, as he’s so hard to read/catch, but given last start dominant win (which cost us a big quaddie) but given the dominance of the last start win, the price is attractive. Main dangers the obvious in MAGICAL STANCE, FAROLITOS and SEBRINA, all must for quaddies/savers/multiples.

SUGGEST: ZAYAM (EACH WAY) @ $16+, HIMALAYA DREAM (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $11+, FIRST FOUR (2, 3, 7 / 2, 3, 7 / F / 5, 8) (CONFIDENCE 25%)

 

Race 8: Penultimate event on the card is a benchmark 83 over 1400m for the fillies and mares. Competitive race once again, but do think **ELLE LOU** is the one to beat @ $4.80+ with LUXBET and BET365. Barrier no concern, prefers to be out of congestion and expect track to suit with them getting more and more off the fence as the day progresses. Will actually make a BEST VALUE bet of the day on the each way. Am a massive fan of TREE OF JESSE who we have had luck with in the past, if 100% then hard to beat, however prefer to see this once given she is returning from a bleeding attack. In saying that, is a very classy run who I rate highly, hence must go into all multiples/savers/quaddies. Similarly with HARLEM LADY who hasn’t been far behind ELLE LOU in recent times, so shouldn’t be far away again. Next best LYCIA and FLAMBOYANT LASS.

SUGGEST: **ELLE LOU** (EACH WAY) @ $4.80+, FIRST FOUR (3, 5, 7, 9 / 1 / F / 3, 5, 7, 9) (CONFIDENCE 40%) 

 

Race 9: And we finish the day with a benchmark 78 over 1000m. Tricky finish to what looks a tough day given the heavy conditions once again in Sydney. Like one here at a nice price in FLORAL INSIGHT @ $11+ with SPORTSBET, WILLIAM HILL, CROWNBET and BET365. Also want a WIN only play on ALLEZ CHIVAL @ $4.40+ with most operators. Main danger MINNESOTA and EVER SO NATURAL.

SUGGEST: FLORAL INSIGHT (EACH WAY) @ $11+, ALLEZ CHIVAL (WIN) @ $4.40+, FIRST FOUR (4, 6 / 10 / F / 3) (CONFIDENCE 30%) 

 

SUMMARY:

Average odds a $10.61+ per suggested runner!

** BEST VALUE **: SHADOW LORD @ $11+, ELLE LOU @ $4.80+

*BEST LONGSHOTS*: ITALIAN SON @ $21+, SWIFT LADY @ $26+

#happypunting