ALL SPORT PUNTING DUNGEON
SATURDAY, AUGUST 13, 2015
Racing at CAULFIELD with the penetrometer reading 5.18, so currently looking at a GOOD (4) surface.
RAIL: +3M (ENTIRE CIRCUIT). Racing at Caulfield with the rail back out +3M, after it was in the TRUE position two weeks’ ago. Hoping for an even track, pace dependant. As always, be sure to keep a close eye on the track and how it’s playing in the early races for best guide.
Race 1: We start a benchmark 84 over 2000m and this is a race in four, with each of BONDEIGER, NAME THE DAY, HURSLEY and O’LONERA. Happy to take on NAME THE DAY, the other right in the market. I’m always little wary when runners drop in distance and for this reason alone, lean towards HURSLEY @ $4.20+ (SPORTSBET), ahead of BONDEIGER and O’LONERA. Note, no third dividend.
SUGGEST: HURSLEY (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $4.60+, FIRST FOUR (2, 6 / F / 4 / F) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 2: Now for another benchmark 84, this time for the fillies and mares over the mile (1600m). Tricky little affair with pace, tactics and how the track is playing key with minimal pace on paper. For this reason in particular, going to give SAVANNAH MOON another go here @ $8+ with LUXBET and CROWNBET. Expecting another race on pace and assuming minimal pressure can hopefully pinch a race winning break on the turn and will hopefully have fitness on her side to hold on, despite dropping down to the mile, which is the main query. Main dangers RUSTIC MELODY, CHOICE, KANIANA and GIGI GIRL.
SUGGEST: SAVANNAH MOON (EACH WAY) @ $8+, FIRST FOUR (1, 3, 7, 8 / F / 1, 3, 7, 8 / 5), (1, 3, 7, 8 / 1, 3, 7, 8 / F / 5) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 3: A third consecutive benchmark 84, this one also over the mile (1600m) and given the current odds on offer, lean towards VOLCANIC ASH as the best betting proposition @ $6+ with most operators. Looks good each way value, drawn to get the right run and gets in well enough at the weights. Oli to ride. Given the odds will make a BEST VALUE bet of the day. Main danger most definitely LEICA DAY who looks hard to beat, but skinnier enough odds at $3+. Throw into multies, one out quaddie leg to reduce risk associated with standalone play. Happy to simply play around the two.
SUGGEST: VOLCANIC ASH (EACH WAY) @ $6+, FIRST FOUR (4 / F / F / 8) (CONFIDENCE 40%)
Race 4: Now for the mares over 1100m and disappointed by the scratching of ATMOSPHERICAL as I was looking to activate the ‘best horse’ rule with her. Very even affair as you tend to get with these mares events, and despite little between several, think best value definitely lies with the very consistent CHIAVARI @ $8+ with SPORTSBET, CROWNBET and BET365. Main dangers MOSSIN’ AROUND, AWASITA and SHAKESPEAREAN LASS.
SUGGEST: CHIAVARI (EACH WAY) @ $8+, FIRST FOUR (2, 4, 7 / F / F / 5), (roving 4, 5, 7 / F) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 5: Now for the Group 3 Vain Stakes for the three year old colts and geldings. Plenty of guesswork as these lightly raced new three year olds return to the track in many instances. RUSSIAN REVOLUTION is understandably all the rage, but rock bottom odds at $1.90+. Prefer to play through multies and/or one out early quaddie leg instead of any large standalone investment. Instead think much better value lies with REVOLVING DOOR @ $13+ with BET365. Main dangers RUSSIAN REVOLUTION, HARDHAM and ZANAHARY.
SUGGEST: REVOLVING DOOR (EACH WAY) @ $13+, FIRST FOUR (5, 8, 9 / F / F / 7) (CONFIDENCE 30%)
Race 6: Now for the three year old fillies equivalent, this time the Group 3 Quezzette Stakes over 1100m, and this looks very tough. Followers from the autumn will know I’m a fan of several here providing past wins from minimal starts, predominately in the form of CONCEALER, MODERN WONDER, SELENIA and MERRIEST. All have been profitable to us at odds and wouldn’t be surprised if a couple step up further this prep. In saying that, there looks to be decent tempo up front here and as a result just have a feeling they might set things up for something off the pace, which you wouldn’t expect to suit 3 of the 4 above, with the exception of CONCEALER. For this reason will make CONCEALER a suggested play @ $7.50+ with LADBROKES, BOOKMAKERS and BETSTAR. The other I’m interested in on the back of an impressive debut and expected tempo to suit is CONSCIOUS @ $8.50+ with both SPORTSBET and UBET.
SUGGEST: CONCEALER (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $7.50+, CONSCIOUS (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $8.50+, FIRST FOUR (F / 1, 13 / F / 1, 13) (CONFIDENCE 30%)
Race 7: Now for the feature of the day, the WFA (Weight For Age) Group 2 P.B Lawrence over 1400m, and one thing’s for sure and that’s that they will go out fast up front with several hear, simply not knowing any other way. For this reason, am looking for those coming from off the pace to reel them in, led by the old boy in SMOKIN’ JOEY @ $31+ (CROWNBET, BET365), the evergreen nine year old who was super first up on the back of an unsuitable slow tempo. Don’t think this is an overly strong P.B Lawrence and as a result exploring a blowout. Next, is SET SQUARE @ $34+ (SPORTSBET, CROWNBET and BET365), a past Oaks winner who was super last time fresh over this same distance. Given the odds, will make BOTH our BEST LONGSHOTS of the day. Finally, a blowout hope to *MAGNAPAL* @ $71+ and you may be able to write your own ticket at jump time. Saw enough late first up and for the same reasons as the other two think the race might be run to suit. Main dangers MAHUTA and MISS ROSE DE LAGO.
SUGGEST: *SMOKIN’ JOEY* (EACH WAY) @ $31+, *SET SQUARE* (EACH WAY) @ $34+, MAGNAPAL (EACH WAY) @ $71+, FIRST FOUR (11, 14 / F / F / 1, 8, 13) (CONFIDENCE 25%)
Race 8: Penultimate event is the Listed Regal Roller to be run over 1200m and very disappointed by the scratching of SNOOPY who I would’ve been keen on here today. But that’s not the case, and as a result we naturally search elsewhere. Several legitimate queries with many of those short in the market, predominately due to large weights and as a result, looking at one who gets in extre,mely well at the weights here in GOLD SYMPHONY @ $14+ with SPORTSBET. Actually gets a massive 7kg swing in the weights from past clash with PALENTINO when only defeated 4.8L two back. Over-raced last time, but in gun stable (Snowdens), hence hopefully will settle better here. Needs to lift to win in this grade, but improvement wouldn’t surprise at a tidy each way price. Main dangers PALENTINO, FAST N ROCKING and GIRL GUIDE.
SUGGEST: GOLD SYMPHONY (EACH WAY) @ $14+, FIRST FOUR (1, 2, 3 / F / F / 7) (CONFIDENCE 30%)
Race 9: And we finish with a benchmark 78 over 1400m and a competitive finish to say the least, especially with some key chances such as PRINCE OF BROOKLYN drawn awkwardly. Luck to play a part in running, but slight lean here **DOWNHEARTED** @ $9.50+ with CROWNBET and PALMERBET, getting big weight swing on key rival MR INDIVIDUAL here. Given the odds will make a BEST VALUE bet of the day. Also, want to play on SO DOES HE @ $19+ with most operators. Was great two back before a funny race last time, which I’m willing to forgive. Main dangers MR INDIVIDUAL (drawn perfectly), PRINCE OF BROOKLYN (low flying) and VOSTOK.
SUGGEST: **DOWNHEARTED** (EACH WAY) @ $9.50+, SO DOES HE (EACH WAY) @ $19+, FIRST FOUR (6, 8, 15 / F / F / 2, 19) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
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** BEST VALUE **: VOLCANIC ASH @ $6+, DOWNHEARTED @ $9.50+
*BEST LONGSHOTS*: SMOKIN’ JOEY @ $31+, SET SQUARE @ $34+