13 August 2016 (Racing at Rosehill Gardens)

ALL SPORT PUNTING DUNGEON

WWW.PUNTINGDUNGEON.COM.AU

ROSEHILL GARDENS

SATURDAY, AUGUST 13, 2016

 

Racing at ROSEHILL GARDENS with the penetrometer currently reading 5.4, hence currently looking at a SOFT (7) surface.

RAIL: +6M (ENTIRE CIRCUIT). We head to ROSEHILL GARDENS with the rail out +6M after being out +3M two weeks back. Hoping for an even track, but hard to know for sure given the softer conditions in recent times. As usual, be sure to keep an eye on early races for best guide.

 

Race 1: We start with a benchmark 81 over 1400m for the fillies and mares. EXTENSIBLE most definitely the one to beat, but not overly enthused by the $2.30+ price tag. Prefer to play through multies instead of any standalone larger outlay. Instead think better value definitely lies in the form of LABDIEN @ $4.50+ with LUXBET. Grew a leg last prep and no reason to think she won’t continue on this prep. Saw enough first up to think that’s the case. Key here will be pace and actually hoping they settle a little closer than usual. Main dangers EXTENSIBLE and TREE OF JESSE who hasn’t had conditions to suit lately. Has class.

SUGGEST: LABDIEN (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $4.50+ (CONFIDENCE 35%)

 

Race 2: Class 2 Highway Handicap over 1100m and despite these normally being tricky, actually have NO WHEN TO HOLD EM as a clear top pick here at a respectable $5+ with LUXBET and UBET. Looks great each way value and should have no excuses in the run from barrier 2. Then, a small, speculative play on *SHOW AND TELL* at $51+ with BET365. Given the odds will make a BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day.

SUGGEST: NO WHEN TO HOLD EM (EACH WAY - PRIMARY) @ $5+, *SHOW AND TELL* (EACH WAY – SECONDARY) @ $51+, FIRST FOUR (F / 13 / F / 9) (CONFIDENCE 40%)

 

Race 3: Benchmark 78 over 2000m and a bit of guesswork here with several key chances on the quick backup from the bog heavy 10 track that most didn’t handle last week. DUBAIINSTYLE saluted for followers at a juicy price and in dominant fashion and if it wasn’t for the quick backup from such a track, I’d be all over, but now need to be wary. As a result, think the safer play is **MAGICAL STANCE** @ $6+ (most operators) who showed enough last time to suggest may be getting back to form of the past which is superior to most here. Happy to make a BEST VALUE bet of the day. Then, a secondary play on THUNDER DOWN UNDER @ $18+ (SPORTSBET) who will be much better suited on home track, as opposed to the confined spaced of Canterbury. Big weight, but does get some relief with claim from Koby Kennings.

SUGGEST: **MAGICAL STANCE** (EACH WAY - PRIMARY) @ $6+, THUNDER DOWN UNDER (EACH WAY - SECONDARY) @ $18+, FIRST FOUR (F / 1, 4 / F / 1, 4) (CONFIDENCE 35%)

 

Race 4: Benchmark 72 over 1500m and a very even and competitive affair but have landed on a two pronged play. Firstly a WIN only play on ZAUNKONIG @ $5+ with LADBROKES, BOOKMAKERS and BETSTAR, ahead of an each way play on GOT UNDERS at a tidy each way price of $8+ with LUXBET and BET365. Finally, a more speculative play on CATON @ $101+ (SPORTSBET) who despite recent form, is capable in this level and you don’t have to go too far back through form to see how he can be very competitive here. Given the odds, will make a BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day. Main danger LANCIATO, PIRATE BEN and AURORA GLOW.

SUGGEST: ZAUNKONIG (WIN) @ $5+, GOT UNDERS (EACH WAY) @ $8+, *CATON* (EACH WAY) @ $101+, FIRST FOUR (1, 3, 11 / 4, 10 / F / 4, 7, 10) (CONFIDENCE 40%)

 

Race 5: Now for the feature, the Group 3 San Domenico Stakes for the recently turned three year olds, and involves the return of Golden Slipper winner CAPITALIST who is the obvious one to beat and to be honest not sure how you can go past the colt at current odds. Yes, STAR TURN has potential and TANGO RAIN has fitness on his side but the odds differential ($2.10 v $3.40 v $4.60) is simply not enough to entertain with any confidence. As a result, will keep this simple, CAPITALIST on a WIN only basis @ $2.10+ (SPORTSBET).

SUGGEST: CAPITALIST (WIN) @ $2.10+ (CONFIDENCE 70%)

 

Race 6: Now for the Premier’s Cup Prelude over 1800m and although this looked competitive at first glance, upon closer inspection think ALLERGIC is going to be very hard to beat and the price is decent enough at $3.20+ with most operators. Suggest a play on a WIN only basis. Main dangers the Waller treble of MARENOSTRO, SACRED MASTER, LOOPHOLE.

SUGGEST: ALERGIC (WIN) @ $3.20+, FIRST FOUR (2, 5, 6 / 4 / F / F) (CONFIDENCE 50%)

 

Race 7: Open event over 1400m and this is a tricky race with several first up and some with bigger fish to fry down the track, hence how wound up are they for today. COSMIC CUBE is being aimed at an Epsom, and given that fact alone, should be right in the thick of things first up here, although a tricky gate and a decent weight allotted. Looks to be decent tempo up front and as a result will be interesting how the track is playing and whether backmarkers are getting their chance. We will know by race 7. Actually thinking the value lies right at the bottom of the weights here with SHARDS with a very tidy $9+ being offer by LADBROKES, SPORTSBET, BOOKMAKERS and BETSTAR. Then, want a more speculative play on stablemate MAGIC HURRICANE at the opposite end of the weights @ $31+ with most operators. Main dangers COSMIC CUBE, OXFORD POET, TESTASHADOW and RULING DYNASTY.

SUGGEST: SHARDS (EACH WAY) @ $9+, MAGIC HURRICANE (EACH WAY) @ $31+, FIRST FOUR (2, 4, 5, 9 / 2, 4, 5, 9 / F / 1, 11) (CONFIDENCE 30%) 

 

Race 8: Benchmark 92 over 1100m and have a feeling this could be a good form race moving forward. And have a feeling there’s one here who is going to step up this prep and that is **KANGARILLA JOY**. Has done very little wrong in short history but this is already a step up, but going to take the punt improvement has occurred in the red hot Snowden yard. $4.20+ on offer with LUXBET and decent opposition so would love to get out to an each way place dividend. Happy to make a BEST VALUE bet of the day. Main danger SNOOPY and HIS MAJESTY.

SUGGEST: **KANGARILLA JOY** (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $4.20+, FIRST FOUR (8, 12 / 10 / F / F), (8, 12 / F / F / 10) (CONFIDENCE 45%) 

 

Race 9: We finish with a benchmark 78 over 1350m and a tough race to finish with. Going to stick with DRAGON FLYER who has been racing well without winning, but hopefully can convert recent placings into a win to finish things off today. $8.50+ with SPORTSBET is a nice each way price, in a competitive and tricky finish. Main dangers CONARCHIE, EVER SO NATURAL, APPOINT PERCY, TAKEWING and WE’RE SURE.

SUGGEST: DRAGON FLYER (EACH WAY) @ $8.50+, FIRST FOUR (5, 8, 9, 10, 11 / 5, 8, 9, 10, 11 / F / 6), (5, 8, 9, 10, 11 / F / 5, 8, 9, 10, 11 / 6) (CONFIDENCE 30%)

 

 

SUMMARY:

Average odds a juicy $18.32+ per suggested runner!

** BEST VALUE **: KANGARILLA JOY @ $4.20+, MAGICAL STANCE @ $6+

*BEST LONGSHOTS*: SHOW AND TELL @ $51+, CATON @ $101+

#happypunting