ALL SPORT PUNTING DUNGEON
SATURDAY, AUGUST 20, 2016
We return to racing at MOONEE VALLEY with the penetrometer reading 5.19, so currently looking at a SOFT (6) surface.
RAIL: TRUE (ENTIRE CIRCUIT). We head to MOONEE VALLEY after a nice break, allowing the track to rest and recuperate from previous issues. As always, be sure to keep a close eye on the track and how it’s playing in the early races for best guide, especially given the break.
Race 1: We start with a small, yet competitive field tackling a benchmark 96 over 2500m. Would have given ARALDO JUNIOR a very good chance here, however following the scratching, this looks quite self-explanatory, in the form of BLACK TOMAHAWK @ $2.20+ (UBET, UNIBET), who we suggest on a WIN only basis.
SUGGEST: BLACK TOMAHAWK (WIN) @ $2.20+ (CONFIDENCE 50%)
Race 2: Next, is a benchmark 78 over 1600m and a very tricky and competitive race to say the least. Slight lean towards two who come out of the same form race in LAHQA and MISS DENNI at $7.50+ and $6+ respectively with LUXBET and SPORTSBET. Most runners here with some legitimate claims, hence this race runs very deep.
SUGGEST: LAHQA (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $7.50+, MISS DENNI (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $6+, FIRST FOUR (F / 3, 4 / F / 3, 4) (CONFIDENCE 30%)
Race 3: Benchmark 90 over 1200m for the mares and as usual with these mare events, very competitive. Slight lean ROCKOLICIOUS who ran well from the rear, against the tempo last time, which was her first start for the Weir yard. May be looking for further, but think can settle in a much better spot here from a much better gate and be right in the finish at $5.50+ with most operators. Also, want a secondary play on one at juicy odds here in *CELERITAS* @ $17+ with BET365. Given the odds will make a BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day. Main dangers FRENCH EMOTION and CATCH A FIRE who can also improve from a better draw / run in transit.
SUGGEST: ROCKOLICIOUS (EACH WAY - PRIMARY) @ $5.50+, *CELERITAS* (EACH WAY – SECONDARY) @ $17+, FIRST FOUR (2, 4 / 3, 5 / F / 3, 5) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 4: Next are the three year old fillies over 1200m. Tough race, amplified by the fact many of these have won / run well, before taking breaks and are first up here. Slight lean to SWEET SHERRY @ $6+ (BET365) who we had something on in the Golden Slipper at 150/1 and she gave a massive sight, only gobbled up in the final 50m. Respect any significant betting moves, especially for those returning after breaks. Main danger MOONLOVER who I want to play through multiples.
SUGGEST: SWEET SHERRY (EACH WAY) @ $6+, FIRST FOUR (8 / F / F / 2) (CONFIDENCE 30%)
Race 5: Now for the Listed equivalent, this time for the three year old colts and geldings, again over 1200m. And this is very tough, once again. Seems to be a theme developing at Moonee Valley today with a tricky card, hence be wary. Many winning chances, illustrated by 5 of 7 being last start winners, 6 of 7 winning at least one of their past two. So it comes down to value, and we believe best value in this instance lies with THROSSELL @ $8.50+ (SPORTSBET). Has done nothing wrong, winning first and only two starts and no reason he doesn’t go close here. Also, want a secondary dabble on *BAFFERT* @ $31+ with SPORTSBET. CROWNBET and BET365.Given the odds will make a BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day. Throw a blanket over the rest.
SUGGEST: THROSSELL (EACH WAY - PRIMARY) @ $8.50+, *BAFFERT* (EACH WAY – SECONDARY) @ $31+, FIRST FOUR (F / 1, 5 / F / 1, 5) (CONFIDENCE 30%)
Race 6: Now for an open event over the famous 2040m at the Valley, and we might sound like a broken record, but another very competitive affair, especially following the scratching of KILLARNEY KID who was definitely the one to beat. In saying that, like **TOOLEYBUC KID** @ $7+ with SPORTSBET. Loved the way he hit the line last time and maybe they have scratched the stablemate to allow this guy to return to the winner’s stall. Given the odds, will make a BEST VALUE bet of the day. Also, Happy to give PIN YOUR HOPES once last chance @ $4.80+ (most operators) although the query is he is slowly but surely heading towards the end of his prep. In saying that, finishes well enough last time to say he’s still going well enough to win an event like this. Happy to play around the two with that blanket to be thrown over the rest, once again.
SUGGEST: **TOOLEYBUC KID** (EACH WAY) @ $7+, PIN YOUR HOPES (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $4.80+, FIRST FOUR (F / 3, 4 / F / 3, 4) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 7: Open event over 1500m and a very short priced favourite here in PILOTE D’ESSAI. I concede he will be hard to beat, but there are some legitimate queries here, especially given the skinny $1.95+ price. Has drawn 12 of 12, and although I have little doubt this gelding prefers to be drawn out, than in, it is still a query that he’s drawn the far outside and we don’t know exactly how the track will play. If suiting those sitting wide and running on, then chances only increase, however if they happen to be struggling to make ground, especially out wide, then chances significantly decrease. With this in mind, I see little value in the current price and prefer to play through multies, one out quaddie leg and/or similar. Instead think better value lies with ONPICALO @ $11+ (SPORTSBET, WILLIAM HILL, CROWNBET, BET365) and MAJESTIC DUKE @ $9.50+ with BET365. The obvious main danger PILOTE D’ESSAI for obvious reasons.
SUGGEST: ONPICALO (EACH WAY) @ $11+, MAJESTIC DUKE (EACH WAY) @ $9.50+, FIRST FOUR (roving 5, 9, 11 / F), (9 / F / F / 5, 10), (F / 9 / F / 5, 10) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 8: Penultimate event is a Listed event over 1000m and a super race, with plenty of depth. Hoping they go hard up front and backmarkers are making ground, and if so, think SHIRAZ is the one on top @ $4.20+ with most operators. Top class gallopers, who flies fresh and there simply shouldn’t be excuses at this level. Main danger HEATHERLY whose chances increase if leaders are advantaged and/or they don’t go out too hard up front.
SUGGEST: SHIRAZ (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $4.20+, FIRST FOUR (5 / F / F / 1), (F / 1, 5 / F / 1, 5) (CONFIDENCE 40%)
Race 9: And we finish with a benchmark 90 over 1200m and many key chances come out of the same race behind SHAF last time. Taking all into consideration, slight lean to **RUNSATI** who gets the right weight swing against rivals and SHAF, and should be able to turn the tables at $8+ with BET365. Represents great each way value and should be in the right spot (assuming an even track) from the good draw. Given the odds will make a BEST VALUE bet of the day. Also, want something on LE BONSIR who doesn’t know how to run a bad race and represents great value @ $15+ with CROWNBET and BET365. Main dangers SHAF, FAST CASH and MAGICUS.
SUGGEST: **RUNSATI** (EACH WAY) @ $8+, LE BONSIR (EACH WAY) @ $14+, FIRST FOUR (6, 10, 18 / 1, 15 / F / 1, 15) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Average odds $9.48+ per suggested runner!
** BEST VALUE **: TOOLEYBUC KID @ $7+, RUNSATI @ $8+
*BEST LONGSHOT*: CELERITAS @ $17+, BAFFERT @ $31+