ALL SPORT PUNTING DUNGEON
SATURDAY, AUGUST 27, 2015
Racing at CAULFIELD with the penetrometer reading 5.12, so currently looking at a GOOD (4) surface.
RAIL: +6M (ENTIRE CIRCUIT). Racing at Caulfield with the rail out +6M, after it was out +3M two weeks’ ago. Hoping for an even track, pace dependant. As always, be sure to keep a close eye on the track and how it’s playing in the early races for best guide.
Race 1: We start a benchmark 78 for the three year old fillies over 1400m and LEOTIE looks terribly hard to beat however skinny odds at $2+ with BET365. Lack of pace on paper says PERFECTLY SAFE is the danger @ $5.50+ (most operators), while stablemate SEBRIKKA won’t necessarily get pace to suit, but has the form on the board, hence obvious chance at $3.40+ with SPORTBET and UNIBET. Not overly enthused by the price, but think LEOTIE will be winning, hence a nice way to double your money to start the day on a WIN only basis and/or a good first leg for multies / running double.
SUGGEST: LEOTIE (WIN) @ $2+, RUNNING DOUBLE (LEOTIE / PRINCE OF BROOKLYN) (CONFIDENCE 65%)
Race 2: Next is an open handicap over 1400m and as much as I’ve searched for something at juicy odds, the more I look, the more I come back to the obvious in PRINCE OF BROOKLYN @ $2.80+ with SPORTSBET, CROWNBET and BET365. Drawn to get the right run and looks to be the one most suited to the distance at this stage of preparation. Happy to simply play on a WIN only basis, and simply leave it there.
SUGGEST: PRINCE OF BROOKLYN (WIN) @ $2.80+ (CONFIDENCE 55%)
Race 3: Now for the mares over 1400m and as usual with the mares, a competitive affair on paper here. Slight lean DANIELA ROSA @ $6+ with UBET, ahead of top-weight SHE’S CLEAN at a tidy $13+ with CROWNBET. DANIELA ROSA should go well after a freshen up and is one capable of stepping up further after really finding her feet in town last time out. SHE’S CLEAN going well but keeps falling short with the handicapper the main hurdle in recent times, and does have toi lump 60kg once again here. In saying that, good enough despite the impost. Main danger MAJESTIC LASS who should be hard to beat, but rock bottom odds at $3.80+.
SUGGEST: DANIELA ROSA (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $6+, SHE’S CLEAN (EACH WAY) @ $13+, FIRST FOUR (11 / 1, 8 / F / 1, 8) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 4: Benchmark 78 over 1200m and this looks tough with pace, tactics and luck and running key. Simply on the back of value on offer, am leaning towards BON AURUM @ $8+ with BET365. Down in grade here after running extremely well in top three year old grade last prep. Looks good each way value as long as he’s wound up fort a first up tilt, and was unlucky/good first up last time. Main dangers CAMDUS and BLACK VANQUISH but not value so might look for a blowout in multiples.
SUGGEST: BON AURUM (EACH WAY) @ $8+, FIRST FOUR (F / F / 6, 17 / 2), (F / F / 6, 17 / 2) (CONFIDENCE 30%)
Race 5: Now for the first of five black type races, starting with a Group 3 over 1100m and another competitive affair. UNDER THE LOUVRE is the proven class runner here however just wary of racing pattern and at the short quote, prefer to play through savers, multies and/or one out early quaddie ‘final’ leg. Instead think better value lies with **MISS PROMISCUITY** @ $7.50+ with most operators, representing good each way value. Given the odds, will actually make a BEST VALUE bet of the day. Also, want something on *DIAMOND OASIS* @ $21+ (BET365) with new stable, and it happens to be ‘that’ man Darren Weir. Was always decent with Joe Pride and as we know they only seem to improve with Weir. Given the odds, will make a BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day. Main danger UNDER THE LOUVRE.
SUGGEST: **MISS PROMISCUITY** (EACH WAY) @ $7.50+, *DIAMOND OASIS* (EACH WAY) @ $21+, FIRST FOUR (1 / F / F / 5, 13) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 6: Next is a Group 3 for the three year olds over 1200m and a very open, competitive field once again, especially with several returning from breaks. Looking to play a couple at double figure odds, starting with REVOLVING DOOR @ $14+ (most operators), who we were on first up at similar odds, and worked into the race beautifully before running out of puff with 100m to go. Should be fitter for the run and last prep improved second up. The other is AWAKE IN GRINZING @ $12+ with CROWNBET and BET365, after impressive debut win. Can hopefully go back to back here, despite jump in grade. Main dangers SEABURGE, HARDHAM, DEFCON and HIGHLAND BEAT.
SUGGEST: REVOLVING DOOR (EACH WAY) @ $14+, AWAKE IN GRINZING (EACH WAY) @ $12+, FIRST FOUR (1, 2, 3, 9 / F / 1, 2, 3, 9 / 6, 10), (1, 2, 3, 9 / 1, 2, 3, 9 / F / 6, 10) (CONFIDENCE 30%)
QUADDIE (added at 3:23pm): 1, 2, 3, 5, 6, 9, 10 / 2, 9, 11, 12 / 4, 5, 6, 7, 9 / 1, 7
Race 7: Now for the feature of the day, the first Group 1 of the season, the Memsie Stakes run over 1400m. And as you’d expect a quality field assembled, with many new, up and comers joining in on the Group 1 party. BLACK HEART BART is the obvious and is certain to play a role in the finish, however little value and rock bottom odds at $2.60+. Prefer to play through multies, multiples and/or a skinny (potentially even a one out) quaddie leg. Instead prefer to play around a few at juicy prices, led by one of our faves in PALENTINO @ $7.50+ with most operators. Was not obvious in the vision but was caught four wide without cover first up, hence his ability to run 4th was more than satisfactory. Needs to step up second up, but truly believe he can with the right run. Needs a touch of luck from barrier 10, but we’ll keep that in Mark Zahra’s capable hands and at the price, worth the punt. Next is TARZINO @ $16+ (BET365), who has hardly placed a foot wrong, besides last start defeat in the Derby. Many will expect more later, over longer, but this race has a habit of throwing up a winner who is a big Melbourne Cup player and he might just be that. Finally, want something on *TALLY* at a crazy $61+ with BET365. One of few to have beaten PALENTINO convincingly two starts back on the same weight scale as today. Will obviously be better over longer but the price is too good to let slide. Given the odds will make a BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day. Main danger the obvious in BLACK HEART BART, but doesn’t end there.
SUGGEST: PALENTINO (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $7.50+, TARZINO (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $16+, *TALLY* (EACH WAY) @ $61+, FIRST FOUR (2 / 9, 11, 12 / F / 9, 11, 12), (F / 2 / 9, 11, 12 / 9, 11, 12) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 8: Penultimate event is the Listed Heatherlie Stakes over 1700m and a lot of depth here, with pace, tactics key. Looks to be decent pace to my eye, with several key chances expected to go forward and for this reason am leaning towards two who will settle a little further back and hopefully be running past them late. First is MAGNAPAL @ $7.50+ (BET365) who we were on last time at 70/1 and he ran an absolute botler, unlucky to not run a drum, finishing 2.2L behind the winner after an interrupted path in the straight. Also, want something on ARAB DAWN at a very tidy $17+ with BET365. Is very good on his day and although his two trials read 6th/6 and 9th/9, they were against the highest quality and was actually not far behind a handy one called Winx in latest trial. Main dangers TOM MELBOURNE and PROVOCATIVE.
SUGGEST: MAGNAPAL (EACH WAY) @ $7.50+, ARAB DAWN (EACH WAY) @ $17+, FIRST FOUR (7, 9 / 4, 5 / F / 4, 5) (CONFIDENCE 30%)
Race 9: And we finish with a Group 3 for the mares over 1200m and another ultra-competitive amongst the mares. Looks to be decent tempo once again, and hoping backmarkers are getting their chance, given selection in the last couple of races in particular. At least we will know by races 8 - 9. Running with the ‘best horse’ rule here in the form of DON’T DOUBT MAMMA @ $8.50+ (SPORTSBET, UNIBET) who looks great each way value. Given the odds, will actually make a BEST VALUE bet of the day. Also, want something on A LOTTA LOVE @ $17+ with CROWNBET and BET365. Very consistent galloper who also will appreciate a strong gallop up front, should that eventuate. Main dangers OCEN EMBERS, THAMES COURT, MOSSIN’ AROUND and CHOOSE.
SUGGEST: **DON’T DOUBT MAMMA** (EACH WAY) @ $8.50+, A LOTTA LOVE (EACH WAY) @ $17+, FIRST FOUR (2, 5, 12, 13 / 1, 2, 5, 7, 12, 13 / F / 1, 7) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
QUADDIE (added at 3:23pm): 1, 2, 3, 5, 6, 9, 10 / 2, 9, 11, 12 / 4, 5, 6, 7, 9 / 1, 7
Average odds $13.80+ per suggested runner!
** BEST VALUE **: MISS PROMISCUITY @ $7.50+, DON’T DOUBT MAMMA @ $8.50+
*BEST LONGSHOTS*: DIAMOND OASIS @ $21+, TALLY @ $61+