ALL SPORT PUNTING DUNGEON
SATURDAY, AUGUST 6, 2015
Racing at FLEMINGTON with the penetrometer reading 4.85, so currently looking at a GOOD (4) surface.
RAIL: +7M (ENTIRE CIRCUIT). Racing at Flemington with the rail out +7M after it was out +4M two weeks’ back. As usual, important to keep a close eye on the track and how it’s playing in the early races for best guide.
Race 1: We start with a competitive benchmark 84 for the fillies and mares over 2000m. Disappointed by the scratching of KHUTULUN as it doesn’t affect our suggestions but now provides less value with her out of action given she was short in the market. Think SAVANNAH MOON can get away with a soft lead up front and given the better value on offer compared with main danger YULONG BABY, becomes a better betting proposition @ $3.80+ with SPORTSBET, LUXBET and BET365. Main danger YULONG BABY gets the right weight swing here to turn the tables on rivals and will be hitting the line strong.
SUGGEST: SAVANNAH MOON (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $3.80+, EXACTA (YULONG BABY / SAVANNAH MOON) (CONFIDENCE 50%)
Race 2: Benchmark 70 for the new three year olds and bit of guesswork for mine, despite what the market suggests. Concede both DECORATED SOLDIER and the in-form ZUNBAQA are right in this, but skinny odds for mine and prefer smaller plays on a couple at odds in the form of BACK TO THE BOWLER @ $13+ (SPORTSBET, CROWNBET) and ODEON @ $10+ with most operators. Race doesn’t end there.
SUGGEST: BACK TO THE BOWLER (EACH WAY) @ $13+, ODEON (EACH WAY) @ $10+, FIRST FOUR (F / 3, 5 / F / 4, 6) (CONFIDENCE 30%)
Race 3: Open event over 2000m and it was hard to miss the brilliant run by ALMANDIN last time against an extremely biased leader’s track at Moonee Valley in June. Dungeon followers would recall the race where we were on the winner ONPICALO and will remember hardly any runner made ground from the rear, all day….except for ALMANDIN. Has been well backed in early market, but still a good betting proposition at $4.50+ with LADBROKES, BOOKMAKERS.COM.AU and BETSTAR. Main dangers PIN YOUR HOPES, KILLARNEY KID and GOLDEN MANE.
SUGGEST: ALMANDIN (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $4.50+ (CONFIDENCE 45%)
Race 4: Another open event, this time over 1700m. Tricky little race, with slight lean to LORD DURANTE @ $4.80+ with CROWNBET, purely given the better value on offer, compared with ROYAL RAPTURE who should be hard to beat.
SUGGEST: LORD DURANTE (EACH WAY) @ $4.80+, FIRST FOUR (F / 4 / F / 7) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 5: Open handicap over 1400m and this looks fairly obvious on face value in the form of ULMANN with a tidy $3.20+ available through BET365. Looks hard to beat, especially after the extremely handy 3kg claim. Suggest a primary play on a WIN only basis. Also want something on MAJESTIC DUKE at a juicy $12+ with most/all operators. Main dangers SHE’S CLEAN, DUKE OF BRUNSWICK and PILOTE D’ESSAI.
SUGGEST: ULMANN (WIN - PRIMARY) @ $3.20+, MAJESTIC DUKE (EACH WAY - SECONDARY) @ $12+, FIRST FOUR (3, 5, 11 / 6 / F / 3, 5, 11, 12) (CONFIDENCE 50%)
Race 6: Benchmark 90 down the straight over 1000m and this is very tough, with many legitimate winning chances. Value aplenty if you can nail the winner and as a result going to spread bets across three. Firstly, VALIANT WARRIOR @ $12+ with SPORTSBET. Next is LE BONSIR at a more than respectable $21+ with each of SPORTSBET and BET365, and finally *PRETTY POSSUM* @ $34+ with CROWNBET, PALMERBET and BET365. Given the odds will make the latter a BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day. Each more than capable, get in well in the weights and most importantly represent best value across the board. Main dangers RUNSATI and ROUGH JUSTICE, but then runs deep.
SUGGEST: VALIANT WARRIOR (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $12+, LE BONSIR (EACH WAY) @ $21+, *PRETTY POSSUM* (EACH WAY) @ $34+, FIRST FOUR (3, 14 / 1, 13, 15 / F / 1, 13, 15) (CONFIDENCE 30%)
Race 7: Now for the feature, the Group 3 Aurie’s Star over 1200m and actually think this is a lot simpler than many would be making out. Many of these are much better over longer, and as a result looking to focus on those better suited to the shorter sprint trip. Top pick speaks for itself in **RUETIGGER** and will be hard to beat @ $4+ with SPORTSBET and UNIBET. Flying and gets in extremely well at the weights. May be shorter odds than we normally declare a BEST VALUE bet, but on a tough day, think he looks the safest at a decent enough price. Then a secondary play on one we backed with success last time first up at a juicy price, and no reason he can’t win again in the form of MIGHTY LIKE @ $6.50+ with most operators. Main dangers SMART VOLATILITY, SOOBOOG and MAGNUS REIGN.
SUGGEST: **RUETTIGER** (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $4+, MIGHTY LIKE (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $6.50+, FIRST FOUR (2, 10, 13 / 4, 9 / F / 4, 9) (CONFIDENCE 50%)
Race 8: Penultimate event of the day is a benchmark 84 for the mares over 1400m. Very tough race as illustrated by the market with $5.50+ the field. Given the improved track, have come out with **MISS DENNI** on top at $11+ with BET365, which represents good each way value. First up back from a small break, back to own sex, from all reports has settled into Melbourne well and ready to fire fresh. Given the odds will make her a BEST VALUE bet of the day. Also want something on a secondary WIN only basis on JUST STELLAR @ $7.50+ (most operators) who is yet to put in a bad race, and looks ready to win again after a couple of near misses. Throw a blanket over the rest in a very deep race.
SUGGEST: **MISS DENNI** (EACH WAY) @ $11+, JUST STELLAR (WIN) @ $7.50+, FIRST FOUR (F / 5, 13 / F / 5, 13) (CONFIDENCE 30%)
Race 9: And we finish with a benchmark 78, also down the straight over the six furlongs (1200m). Last time this we were here over this track and distance to finish the card a massive blowout occurred with debutant Astro Castro winning at 100/1. Tough finish to a tricky card on face value, many legitimate winning chances here again. Suggesting plays on two at very juicy odds, firstly in the form of TANSY $ 19+ with LABDROKES, BOOKMAKERS.COM.AU and BETSTAR. Underrated galloper who wasn’t far behind the likes of Andrassy and Ruetigger last time and that form ties in very nicely for a benchmark 78 like this. The other is top weight *BERLUTTI* who has been very disappointing of late, but last time was on a Heavy track and will hopefully appreciate a firmer surface here and we know its best is good enough and only need to go three runs back when good down the straight here. At $41+ with most operators represents excellent each way value. Given the odds will make a BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day. Main dangers BADAJOZ, CAMDUS, HEZA RIPPER and TYRANNIZE, but definitely doesn’t end there.
SUGGEST: TANSY (EACH WAY) @ $19+, *BERLUTTI* (EACH WAY) @ $41+, FIRST FOUR (3, 7, 11, 17 / 1, 9 / F / 1, 9) (CONFIDENCE 30%)
Average odds $12.96+ per suggested runner!
** BEST VALUE **: RUETTIGER @ $4+, MISS DENNI @ $11+,
*BEST LONGSHOT*: PRETTY POSSUM @ $34+, BERLUTTI @ $41+