6 August 2016 (Racing at Royal Randwick)

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ROYAL RANDWICK

SATURDAY AUGUST 6, 2016

 

Racing at ROYAL RANDWICK with the penetrometer currently reading 5.32, hence currently looking at a HEAVY (10) surface.

RAIL: TRUE (ENTIRE CIRCUIT). We head to ROYAL RANDWICK and unfortunately more rain in sunny Sydney. Rail back to the TRUE position and you would expect then to be fanning wide off the fence most of the day. As usual, be sure to keep an eye on early races for best guide.

WARNING: Looks a tough card at Randwick today, amplified by the heavy track conditions. Sometimes this simplifies the form, but large number of runners actually don’t mind the conditions and as a result many races have log-jammed markets with many runners in single figures and most importantly not great value. Just wary with the card as a whole, hence be aware.

 

Race 1: We start with a fillies and mares benchmark 78 over 1800m on a bog track in Sydney town. And a tough start as illustrated by the market with all 6 runners in single figures. Now that HARLEM LADY has found winning form, I think she will simply continue with it and as a result top pick here @ $3.40+ with CROWNBET. Was initially a bit short, but market correcting and now out to a backable price. Main danger stablemate FIREBIRD FLYER whose fitness levels dropping back from 2000m should suit here given the heavy conditions. All runners in race with a legitimate case. Note, no third dividend.

SUGGEST: HARLEM LADY (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $3.40+, EXACTA (FIREBIRD FLYER / HARLEM LADY) (CONFIDENCE 35%)

 

Race 2: Benchmark 74 over 2400m, and unfortunately this won’t be as easy as last week where Estaban looked a moral and after we were keen at $1.60+, we were spoiled with $2.30! Still can’t believe that. Anyways, no Estaban here, and this race is poles apart as this looks an absolute chook raffle. Another small field of six, and once again all runners in single figures, in this instance nothing bigger than $6. Good time to simply watch and learn how track is playing, grab some lunch, maybe spoil yourself to a beverage and be ready for the rest of the afternoon.

SUGGEST: NO BET AT THIS STAGE (CONFIDENCE 0%)

 

Race 3: Now for a benchmark 81 over 1000m and keen on **THREE SHEETS** @ $3.50+ (CROWNBET, UNIBET) who in my opinion is the best 1000m sprinter on a heavy track of those engaged here. Just needs a repeat of either of past two wins over this track and distance (importantly on soft and heavy tracks) to go very close here. Note, no third dividend. Smaller odds than usual BEST VALUE runners, but good enough on this card and no third dividend hopefully gets us an each way price.

SUGGEST: **THREE SHEETS** (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $3.50+ (CONFIDENCE 45%)

 

Race 4: Now for the standard class 3 on a Saturday in Sydney, this time over 1400m. Primary keys here are handling the heavy track and running out a strong 1400m on such a track with several here in good form but unknown/unproven at the trip. Given the conditions, you’d want to be confident of running a strong 1400m and arguably further as it will feel like more by the end. For this reason, looking to play around two runners at very different odds. Firstly, top pick and hardest to beat here is EXPLOSIVE SCENE @ $3.80+ with most operators, who gets in a with a featherweight 52kg after the very handy claim from Andrew Atkins. The other I want a play on is *STRIKING LAGO* @ $23+ with UBET. Given the odds will make a BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day. Happy to forgive last time at Canterbury, and form prior is good enough to be very competitive here. Good each way value. As for the rest, anyone have a blanket to throw over them?

SUGGEST: EXPLOSIVE SCENE (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $3.80+, *STRIKING LAGO* (EACH WAY) @ $23+, FIRST FOUR (F / 6, 10 / F / 6, 10) (CONFIDENCE 40%)

 

Race 5: And now for the feature, the Group 2 Missile Stakes to be run over 1200m and a big shame with two key runners in CAPITALIST and GENERALIFE now scratched. What that does mean as this now looks quite straightforward by simply issuing the ‘Best Horse Rule’ and that lies clearly with REBEL DANE, especially over this trip, this grade and in these conditions. Absolutely no excuses and should be too good for this lot @ $1.95+ with BET365. Will come down to fitness levels first up, but goes well fresh, hence just keep an eye in the yard and just be wary of any significant negative betting moves. In saying that, should be winning even if 80% screwed down, and suggest a WIN only play. Main danger MOUNT NEBO if you want to add one to your exotics, multiples, etc.

SUGGEST: REBEL DANE (WIN) @ $1.95+, EXACTA (MOUNT NEBO / REBEL DANE) (CONFIDENCE 65%)

 

Race 6: Now for the three year olds in the Listed Rosebud, run over 1200m. Unfortunately not much value on offer here, with the bookies/corporates seeing this exactly as I am and that’s with two clearly on top in the form of MEDITERRANEAN and THRONUM. Simply, given the odds differential between the two, lean towards THRONUM @ $3.20+ (CROWNBET) v $2+ on offer only for MEDITERRANEAN. Of the challenges, QUICK FEET is capable of improving this prep, however query is the heavy track. If there is monetary support, be wary and option could be a roving banker with the three, in the hope a rank outsider lobs in somewhere in the first four. Note, another race with no third dividend.

SUGGEST: THRONUM (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $3.20+, EXACTA (MEDITERRANEAN / THRONUM), FIRST FOUR (roving 1, 2, 3 / F) (CONFIDENCE 40%)

 

Race 7: Now for a benchmark 78 over the famous Randwick mile (1600m) and another very even and tricky affair as per the market. Several legitimate winning chances, but looking for value and believe best value lies with bottom weight DUBAIINSTYLE @ $8+ with most operators who gets good weight relief from rivals. Also, want something each way on top weight KOROIBETE at $61+ with BET365. Is more than capable in this grade and although the heavy track is a legitimate query, is massive odds and worth the punt regardless. Trialled well enough recently and if you go back deep into form, not 100% clear that the heavy is a major knock, despite form reading terribly on face value. Given the big price, will make a BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day.

SUGGEST: DUBAIINSTYLE (EACH WAY) @ $8+, *KOROIBETE* (EACH WAY) @ $61+, FIRST FOUR (F / 1, 10 / F / 1, 10) (CONFIDENCE 30%) 

 

Race 8: Penultimate event is a benchmark 83 over 1200m for the fillies and mares and the day doesn’t get easier. Really tough card today in Sydney, amplified by the heavy track. Happy to give class runner TREE OF JESSE another go @ $6+ (CROWNBET, SPORTSBET), despite running poorly last time. Has been freshened since and trialled well and is very well suited in this grade. Also, want to play top weight ELECTRIC POWER at the generous price of $13+ with most operators. Happy to play around the two in another very competitive affair which runs deep in terms of winning chances.

SUGGEST: TREE OF JESSE (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $6+, ELECTRIC POWER (EACH WAY) @ $13+, FIRST FOUR (F / 1, 4 / F / 1, 4) (CONFIDENCE 30%) 

 

Race 9: We finish with a benchmark 78 over 1200m. BURNING PASSION the obvious and will be hard to beat, however little to no value at the very short $1.75+ after a bunch of scratchings due to the heavy track. Prefer to play through multies, skinny final quaddie leg or similar in order to minimise risk of large standalone investment. Instead think better value lies with **STAR SHAFT** @ $7+ and FORTUNE PATCH @ $8+ with most operators. Lean towards STAR SHAFT and as a result will make a BEST VALUE bet of the day. The other danger is WUDANG MOUNTAIN who is very hard to read (inconsistent), but capable on his day, so worth including in multiples, quaddies, etc.

SUGGEST: STAR SHAFT (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $7+, FORTUNE PATCH (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $8+, FIRST FOUR (2, 4 / 8, 13 / F / 8, 13) (CONFIDENCE 30%)

 

SUMMARY:

Average odds $11.82+ per suggested runner!

** BEST VALUE **: THREE SHEETS @ $3.50+, STAR SHAFT @ $7+

*BEST LONGSHOTS*: STRIKING LAGO @ $23+, KOROIBETE @ $61+

#happypunting