ALL SPORT PUNTING DUNGEON
SATURDAY, SEPTEMBER 10, 2015
Racing at ROSEHILL with the penetrometer reading 5.07, so currently looking at a SOFT (5) surface, however more rain expected Saturday, potentially quite significant with 3-10mm forecast.
RAIL: +2M (ENTIRE CIRCUIT). We return to ROSEHILL GARDENS with the rail out +2M. As usual, important to keep a close eye on the track and how it’s playing in the early races for best guide, especially given the forecast rain.
Race 1: We start with a benchmark 78 for the fillies and mares over 1500m and a very tough start as the marlet suggested with most runners in signle fiigures. Ever so slight lean LABDIEN the calss runner of the field at $5.50+ wtih WILLIAM HILL. Has a big weight to contend with but hopefully class can still prevail. Main danger LONGKISSGOODNIGHT.
SUGGEST: LABDIEN (EACH WAY) @ $5.50+, FIRST FOUR (7 / F / F / 1) (CONFIDENCE 30%)
Race 2: Next is another benchmark 78, this time over 1800m and ANTONIO GIUSEPPE looks extremely hard to eat @ $2.15+ with LUXBET. Suggest a play on a WIN only basis. Main danger SALTHOUSE.
SUGGEST: ANTONIO GIUSEPPE (WIN) @ $2.15+, FIRST FOUR (4 / 5 / F / F) (CONFIDENCE 45%)
Race 3: Benchmark 85 over 1200M and looking at a couple at juicy odds here in the form of MORALE VICTORY @ $26+ (UBET) and OPEN BOOK @ $26+ with most operators. Like the claim from MORALE VICTORY and think last run had a lot of merit. OPEN BOOK is one we have had some luck with in the past and is good enough to win this, however the obvious concerns is the expected softer conditions although wasn't far away last time on a soft track. Main dangers SIR BACCHUS and BULLRUSH.
SUGGEST: MORALE VICTORY (EACH WAY) @ $26+, OPEN BOOK (EACH WAY) @ $26+, FIRST FOUR (1, 4 / F / F / 2, 6) (CONFIDENCE 30%)
Race 4: Now for the class 3 Highway Handicap over 1200m. Tricky race, with pace/tactics and how track is playing key. Think the bookies have this one correct with QUATRONIC @ $3.40+ with UBET and BET365. While a more speculative play on *VAN HALEN* first up at a very juicy $41+ with SPORTSBET and CROWNBET. Given the odds will make a BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day.
SUGGEST: QUATRONIC (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $3.40+, *VAN HALEN* (EACH WAY) @ $41+, FIRST FOUR (F / 2 / F / 10) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 5: Now for the Group 3 Kingston Town over 2000m and giving the consistent **LOOPHOLE** another chance @ $13+ with BET365. Has been unlucky and had excuses past couple, and with luck in running can be right in the finish here. Given the price, happy to make a BEST VALUE bet of the day. Main dangers ALLERGIC and MCREERY,
SUGGEST: **LOOPHOLE** (EACH WAY) @ $13+, FIRST FOUR (3, 4 / F / F / 5) (CONFIDENCE 30%)
Race 6: And now for the feauture, the Group 1 Golden Rose for the three year olds olver 1400m and a super field assembled despite some absentees. And I'm expecting the two at the top of the market to fight this out in the form of OMEI SWORD @ $4.40+ (LADBROKES, BOOKMAKERS.COM.AU, BETSTAR) and ASTERN @ $4.80+ wtih LUXBET. Happy to primarily play around the two, in addition to a secondary play on *NIKITAS* @ $51 with SPORTSBET, CROWNBET and BET365. We were on last time at similar odds, and gave a great sight after being posted wide the trip. Should strip fitter here and get a much better run in transit. Given the odds, will make a BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day. Main dangers EL DIVINO, DIVINE PROPHET, DERRYN and YANKEE ROSE.
SUGGEST: OMEI SWORD (WIN - PRIMARY) @ $4.40+, ASTERN (WIN - PRIMARY) @ $4.80+, *NIKITAS* (EACH WAY - SECONDARY) @ $51+, FIRST FOUR (2, 4, 8, 12 / 1, 5, 13 / F / 1, 5, 13) (CONFIDENCE 40%)
Race 7: Now for the Group 2 Theo Marks Stakes over 1300m and there does look to be decent pace on paper here. With this in mind think SOUTHERN LEGEND @ $2.80+ (BET365) can step up and make it five on the trot. Main danger COUNTERATTACK.
SUGGEST: SOUTHERN LEGEND (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $2.80+, FIRST FOUR (F / 5, 9 / 5, 9 / F) (CONFIDENCE 45%)
Race 8: Penultimate event of the day is the Group 2 Sheraco Stakes for the fillies and mares over 1200m. Competitive as always with the females, but have come out with **HEAVENS ABOVE** on top @ $9+ with SPORTSBET. Gets in very well at the weights, for example a 6kg swing against PEARLS for a 1.6L defeat last time. The unknown is the softer track (untried) but they have elected to run, so one way to find out and at the price, worth the gamble. given the price, will actually make a BEST VALUE bet of the day. Then also want something on SERENE MAJESTY first up @ $21+ with UBET, LUXBET and BET365. Main dangers ALUCINARI, DIXIE BLOSSOMS and DENMAGIC.
SUGGEST: **HEAVENS ABOVE** (EACH WAY) @ $9+, SERENE MAJESTY (EACH WAY) @ $21+, FIRST FOUR (8, 10, 11 / 2, 5, 8, 10, 11 / F / 2, 5) (CONFIDENCE 30%)
Race 9: And we finish with a benchmark 78 over 1400m and finding it hard to split two here at double figure odds in the form of top weight FABRIZIO @ $10+ (BET365) and BALMAIN BOY also at $10+ with SPORTSBET. Happy to play around the two in a very open finish.
SUGGEST: FABRIZIO (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $10+, BALMAIN BOY (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $10+, FIRST FOUR (F / 1, 11 / F / 1, 11) (CONFIDENCE 30%)
Average odds $15.34+ per suggested runner!
** BEST VALUE **: HEAVENS ABOVE @ $9+, LOOPHOLE @ $13+
*BEST LONGSHOT*: VAN HALEN @ $41+, NIKITAS @ $51+