ALL SPORT PUNTING DUNGEON
SATURDAY, SEPTEMBER 17, 2015
Racing at CAULFIELD with the penetrometer 5.31, so currently looking at a SOFT (5) surface, and the previously forecast rain seems to have been avoided.
RAIL: +9M (ENTIRE CIRCUIT). Racing at Caulfield with the rail out +9M, after it was out +6M three weeks’ back. Hoping for an even track, pace dependant, however some uncertainty given wet weather in Melbourne this week. Given the heavy traffic (big fields) and softer ground, have a feeling they will start getting off the fence as the day progresses. As always, be sure to keep a close eye on the track and how it’s playing in the early races for best guide.
Race 1: Tricky start with a benchmark 78 over 1200m with pace, tactics and how the track is playing key. Think the value lies with **MANHATTAN BLUES @ $13+ (BET365) who I thought was superb last start after being caught wide the trip, predominately without cover, but still had the audacity to keep finding the line late. Given the price will actually make an early BEST VALUE bet of the day. Then a WIN only play on kiwi SHILLELAGH as long as there is decent monetary support. The form is always strong this time of year and form and times read well for this grade @ $5+ with LADBROKES, BOOKMAKERS.COM.AU and BETSTAR. Main dangers CHASE THE HORIZON (who beat MANHATTAN BLUES home last time, however had a softer run and doesn’t get in as well at the weights) and CAUTHEN who at best wins, however hasn’t raced for 728 days. Fair spell.
SUGGEST: **MANHATTAN BLUES** (EACH WAY) @ $13+, SHILLELLAGH (WIN) @ $5+, FIRST FOUR (1, 15 / 1, 5, 11, 15 / F / 5, 11) (CONFIDENCE 30%)
Race 2 (updated post scratchings at 8:50am 17/9): Next is an event for the three year olds over 1100m and this is very tough. Going to give MODERN WONDER another chance, after a stinker first up. We obviously tipped her on debut in Adelaide at double figure odds and do know that the stable had big plans for her, hence the reason to put her away after her debut win. Always the risk (especially given first up flop) that she hasn’t come back as well as a 3YO, but at $9.50+ (LADBROKES, BOOKMAKERS.COM.AU, BETSTAR) knowing past ability, happy to play. Main dangers BARTHELONA (would have been very keen had he drawn a gate (barrier 18), DISSOLUTE and BLUE TYCOON.
SUGGEST: MODERN WONDER (EACH WAY) @ $9.50+, FIRST FOUR (3, 4, 7 / 14 / F / 3, 4, 7), (3, 4, 7 / 3, 4, 7 / F / 14) (CONFIDENCE 25%)
Race 3 (updated post scratchings at 8:50am 17/9): Next is the three year old fillies over 1400m and another tough affair in what looks a tough card. Slight lean here to Adelaide-invader SERENELY DISCREET @ $6.50+ (CROWNBET, UNIBET) who looks well suited in this grade and at this weight scale. Drawn to get a gun run and be right in the finish. Main dangers the Hayes trio of NAJMAAT, PERFECTLY SAFE and CLOCKWORK ORANGE.
SUGGEST: SERENELY DISCREET (EACH WAY) @ $6.50+, FIRST FOUR (1, 4, 6 / F / F / 2) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 4 (updated post scratchings at 8:50am 17/9): Now for the mares in a benchmark 90 over 1400m and as always with the mares, very competitive, which looks to be the order of the day, regardless of sex. Slight lean CLEMENCY here first up at a tidy $9+ with UNIBET and SPORTSBET. Then want plays on two longshots led by *TEARS OF JOY* @ $51+ (LUXBET) also first up. The other is *TAKEOVER* @ $51+ with most operators. Actually, hasn’t been far away in recent times and simply surprised by the price. Given the odds for the duo will make them out BEST LONGSHOT bets of the day. Main dangers MISS GUNPOWDER, ANTELUCAN and MAJESTIC LASS, but doesn’t end there in a deep race.
SUGGEST: CLEMENCY (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $9+, *TEARS OF JOY* (EACH WAY) @ $51+, *TAKEOVER* (EACH WAY) @ $51+, FIRST FOUR (2, 4, 11 / 5, 8, 13 / F / 5, 8, 13) (CONFIDENCE 25%)
Race 5: Next is an open event for the three year olds over the mile (1600m) and another very competitive affair. Sticking with two we had something on last time, who had excuses before hitting the line late. The two in question are AWAKE IN GRINZING @ $7.50+ (SPORTSBET) who went back as we wanted, however never found clear galloping room until late in what was a slowly run race dominated by those on the pace. The other is CAPTAIN DUFFY @ $21+ (SPORTSBET) who was caught wide in the same race (with cover) and kept hitting the line after looking in trouble at the top of the straight. Main dangers KACHING, HARLOW GLOW and LORD MACAU.
SUGGEST: AWAKE IN GRINZING (EACH WAY) @ $7.50+, CAPTAIN DUFFY (EACH WAY) @ $21+, FIRST FOUR (5, 13, 16 / 3, 4, 5, 13, 16 / F / 3, 4) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 6 (updated post scratchings at 8:50am 17/9): Next is a Group 3 sprint for the mares over 1200m and sticking with another we were on last time and not far away in better grade against the boys. The one in question is **MISS PROMISCUITY** @ $4.80+ with LADBROKES, BOOKMAKERS.COM.AU and BETSTAR. Query if the heavens open, however happy given most of the forecast rain has missed. Happy to make a BEST VALUE bet of the day. I also know of strong stable support for ANDRASSY and as a result will include a secondary wager in her direction at $9+ with BET365. Main danger SECRET AGENDA.
SUGGEST: **MISS PROMISCUITY** (EACH WAY - PRIMARY) @ $4.80+, ANDRASSY (WIN / EACH WAY - SECONDARY) @ $9+, FIRST FOUR (4 / 2, 10 / F / 2, 10) (CONFIDENCE 40%)
Race 7: Next is the Listed Testa Rossa Stakes to be run over 1200m and an interesting affair with several different formlines and fitness levels to try and line up / guess. Pace and tactics (not to mention how the track is playing) sure to be key here, however assuming a normally run race, think the value lies with CHARLIEBOY first up @ $10+ with LADBROKES, BOOKMAKERS.COM.AU and BETSTAR. Somewhat underrated galloper in my opinion and more than capable at this level. Then want to have a WIN only play on KEEN ARRAY @ $4.60+ (BET365) who may finally be ready to fulfil potential after it took a brilliant run/effort by Voodoo Lad to beat it last time. Main dangers HUCKLEBUCK (only query the big 61kg impost) and SANTA ANA LANE, THE VIRGINIAN. Good race, as you’d expect.
SUGGEST: CHARLIE BOY (EACH WAY) @ $10+, KEEN ARRAY (WIN) @ $4.60+, FIRST FOUR (1, 6, 9 / 2, 4 / F / 2, 4) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 8: Now for the feature the Naturalism over 2000m, which most importantly gives the winner a ticket into the Caulfield Cup, so massive prize up for grabs. Those who took our suggestions + main dangers, just missed a decent chunk of a huge $23k+ quaddie two weeks ago with REAL LOVE running 2nd at 50/1 in the only leg missed (OUCH!) and don’t see any reason to drop off here at a tidy $10+ with CROWNBET. Run was big, and although there were many hard luck stories, this mare only flew after getting clear galloping room herself, unfortunately just too late. Also want to have something on another we have always had a lot of time for in SET SQUARE @ $12+ with LADBROKES, BOOKMAKERS.COM.AU and BETSTAR. Just might finally be back to best, many forget she was a dominant Oaks winner as a three year old. Main dangers TOM MELBOURNE (hard to beat, but unders, however beats the handicapper by winning here and getting featherweight in Caulfield Cup, hence suggest a play for Caulfield Cup @ 50/1 with BET365), MAGNAPAL (underrated) and JAMEKA (barrier 1 the concern, may need a bit of luck from there).
SUGGEST: REAL LOVE (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $10+, SET SQUARE (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $12+, FIRST FOUR (6, 7, 13 / 4, 8 / F / 4, 8) (CONFIDENCE 30%)
Race 9: Penultimate event is an open event over 1400m and this one does look a little more straightforward than many other on a tricky card. Top pick here is the red hot HE’S OUR ROKKII who looks hard to beat @ $3.20+ with SPORTSBET. Don’t see any reason to jump ship winning 4 of his past 5, with the only miss a 2nd placing. Then also want something on **MIGHTY LIKE** at a juicy $17+ with each of LADBROKES, SPORTSBET, WILLIAM HILL and BETSTAR. We tipped MIGHTY LIKE first up at the same price and we got the chocolates, hence fingers crossed we can see that again. Simply, putting a line through last run on the heavy track. Main danger SEBRING SUN.
SUGGEST: HE’S OUR ROKKII (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $3.20+, MIGHTY LIKE (EACH WAY) @ $17+, FIRST FOUR (12 / 2, 4 / F / 2, 4) (CONFIDENCE 40%)
Race 10: And we finish with another open event, this time over 1700m and it doesn’t get an easier. Very tough finish. Best value I believe lies in the form of LORD DURANTE @ $13+ with BET365. Seems to just get better and better with age and is a model of consistency without winning. Hopefully, he can change that today. The other is one we were on last time in WHEATSHEAF FLYER @ $12+ with most operators. Was simply superb two back and can hopefully get conditions and pace run to suit here. Main dangers ELECTRIC FUSION, MAGIC CONSUL, FOUNDRY and NEVIS, always needing to respect Lloyd Williams in these types of races.
SUGGEST: LORD DURANTE (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $13+, WHEATSHEAF FLYER (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $12+, FIRST FOUR (1, 2, 14, 15 / 7, 18 / F / 7, 18) (CONFIDENCE 30%)
Average odds $15.98+ per suggested runner!
** BEST VALUE **: MANHATTAN BLUES @ $13+, MISS PROMISCUITY @ $4.80+,
*BEST LONGSHOTS*: TAKEOVER @ $51+, TEARS OF JOY @ $51+