ALL SPORT PUNTING DUNGEON
SATURDAY, SEPTEMBER 24, 2015
Racing at CAULFIELD with the penetrometer 5.08, so currently looking at a GOOD (3) surface.
RAIL: TRUE (ENTIRE CIRCUIT). Racing at Caulfield with the rail back in the TRUE position after it was out +9M last week. Hoping for an even track, pace dependant, and no major reason to doubt given how the track has played in recent times. As always, be sure to keep a close eye on the track and how it’s playing in the early races for best guide.
Race 1: Tricky start with a benchmark 90 over 1100m for the mares, made harder with several key runners first up from spells. Top pick SUPER CASH @ $3.50+ (most operators) who is one we have always rated very highly and at current odds a play on a WIN only basis. Best value lies with TINA MELINA @ $10+ (SPORTSBET), a new addition to the Waller stable with a key focus to improve barrier manners, which will be tested Saturday given inside gate, hence will be loaded early. Has the ability as record suggests and definitely good enough at nice double figure odds. Main dangers JALAN JALAN, TAKE PRIDE and MAGIC ALIBI.
SUGGEST: SUPER CASH (WIN) @ $3.50+, TINA MELINA (EACH WAY) @ $10+, FIRST FOUR (2, 5, 6 / 4 / F / 1) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 2: Next is a Listed event over 2400m and another tricky and ultra-competitive affair as illustrated by the market with 6 of the 8 runners at single figure odds. And sticking with **THE BANDIT** @ $5+ (most operators), who we were on last time at 100/1 and missed a drum by a pimple, after absolutely bolting home from dead last as they turned for home. At the odds, happy to make a BEST VALUE bet of the day. Main dangers ASSIGN and ALMANDIN.
SUGGEST: **THE BANDIT** (EACH WAY) @ $5+, FIRST FOUR (3, 4 / F / F / 8) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 3: Next is an open handicap over 1700m and don’t see any reason to jump off the low flying ROYAL RAPTURE who is looking for 5 on the trot at $4+ with most operators. Gets in very nicely after the 3kg claim from Benny Allen. Primary play on a WIN only basis. Also want something on value runners NOZOMI at a juicy $20+ with LUXBET and longshot *OUR CENTURY* @ $41+ with BET365. Given the odds, happy to make *OUR CENTURY* a BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day.
SUGGEST: ROYAL RAPTURE (WIN - PRIMARY) @ $4+, NOZOMI (EACH WAY - SECONDARY) @ $20+, *OUR CENTURY* (EACH WAY – SECONDARY) @ $41+, FIRST FOUR (F / 1 / F / 11, 12) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 4: Next is the Inglis Cup for the four year olds over 2000m and some decent money on offer her. Keen on SO WILLIE here @ $5+ with SPORTSBET and BET365. Drawn wide, but shouldn’t matter given normal racing style, as long as backmarkers are getting their chance. Happy to keep things simple and play on an each way basis. Main danger the obvious in PAY UP BRO.
SUGGEST: SO WILLIE (EACH WAY) @ $5+, FIRST FOUR (F / 3 / F / 2) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 5: Now for the Group 2 Guineas Prelude Tranquil Star for the three year old fillies over 1400m. WHISPERING BROOKE is very short and little value here, however I do want to be on here before this race for the Thousand Guineas. So a longer term suggestion on WHISPERING BROOKE @ $13+ for the Thousand Guineas. Instead here, think better value lies with SAMARA DANCER @ $7+ (UNIBET) and SEBRING DREAM @ $8+ with SPORTSBET and WILLIAM HILL. Main danger the obvious in WHISPERING BROOKE.
SUGGEST: SAMARA DANCER (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $7+, SEBRING DREAM (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $8+, FIRST FOUR (1 / 3, 12 / F / 3, 12) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 6: Next is the male equivalent, the Group 3 Caulfield Guineas Prelude over 1400m. Open event, however slight lean SEABURGE @ $8+ with most operators, mainly due to the price compared with those shorter in the market. Then want a couple of more speculative plays on two at juicy prices in YU LONG SHENG HUI @ $51+ with BET365 and I’M TELLING YA @ $51+ with most operators. Main dangers SACRED ELIXIR, SARACINO, ARCHIVES and EVACUATION.
SUGGEST: SEABURGE (EACH WAY - PRIMARY) @ $8+, YU LONG SHENG HUI (EACH WAY - SECONDARY) @ $51+, I’M TELLING YA (EACH WAY - SECONDARY) @ $51+, FIRST FOUR (1, 2, 6, 9 / 3 / F / 10, 15), (1, 2, 6, 9 / F / 3 / 10, 15) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 7: Now for the Group 1 Sir Rupert Clarke to be run over 1400m and despite searching fgor value, finding it hard to go past the one at the top of the market, in COUNTERATTACK @ $3.80+ with LADBROKES, BOOKMAKERS.COM.AU and BETSTAR. Then want something on a couple of juicy prices in the form of TELOPEA @ $34+ with BET365 and WELL SPRUNG @ $41+ with most operators. Main dangers TIVACI and BON AURUM. But race doesn’t end there.
SUGGEST: COUNTERATTACK (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $3.80+, TELOPEA (EACH WAY) @ $34+, WELL SPRUNG (EACH WAY) @ $41+, FIRST FOUR (9, 11 / 6 / F / 13, 14) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 8: Penultimate event is the Group 1 Underwood Stakes over 1800m, one of the early Spring classics that normally ends up a great form races for some of the bigger races (Cups) down the track. Top pick here is **AWESOME ROCK** @ $7+ with BET365. Had this been at another track I’d be extremely keen, however keen enough at Caulfield despite being one track without a win to his name. Underrated galloper who was unlucky to not have an Australian Cup to his name, which Dungeon followers were happy about as we were on Preferment. **AWESOME ROCK** cost us a fortune last time with us needing Real Love to win @ 50/1 to snag a massive $23k+ dividend and unfortunately we beat all bar **AWESOME ROCK**. Hopefully, we get some back here. Also, want to give TARZINO another chance (running out) with blinkers off and $12+ a great price for a horse of his calibre and up to a more suitable distance. Given the odds will make a BEST VALUE bet of the day. Main dangers the obvious in BLACK HEART BART, LUCIA VALENTINA and HE OR SHE.
SUGGEST: **AWESOME ROCK** (EACH WAY - PRIMARY) @ $7+, TARZINO (EACH WAY - SECONDARY) @ $12+, FIRST FOUR (2, 7, 11 / 6, 8 / F / 6, 8) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 9 (updated at 11:09am AEST): And we finish with an open handicap over 1100m and looking to take on a few of the favourites here as all look under the odds for mine. Previously had MURT THE FLIRT but since scratching, will now replace with ATMOSPHERICAL @ $14+ (SPORTSBET). Then a couple of more speculative plays on two at big odds in *GENERAL TRUCE* @ $41+ with BET365 and PLAY MASTER @ $67+ with SPORTSBET and BET365. Given the odds, happy to make *GENERAL TRUCE* a BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day. Main dangers the obvious in HELLBENT, SHEIDEL and RAGEESE.
SUGGEST: ATMOSPHERICAL (EACH WAY) @ $14+, *GENERAL TRUCE* (EACH WAY) @ $41+, PLAY MASTER (EACH WAY) @ $67+, FIRST FOUR (1, 11, 12 / F / F / 2, 8, 9) (CONFIDENCE 25%)
Average odds $21.62+ per suggested runner!
** BEST VALUE **: THE BANDIT @ $5+, AWESOME ROCK @ $7+
*BEST LONGSHOTS*: OUR CENTURY @ $41+, GENERAL TRUCE @ $41+