ALL SPORT PUNTING DUNGEON
SATURDAY, SEPTEMBER 3, 2016
We return to racing at MOONEE VALLEY with the penetrometer reading 4.55, so currently looking at a GOOD (4) surface.
RAIL: +3M (ENTIRE CIRCUIT). We head to MOONEE VALLEY after its return two weeks ago, and importantly rail is out +3M for the first time in a while. This can lend itself to a leader’s track after rail was in the TRUE position on August 20. As importantly as ever, be sure to keep a close eye on the track and how it’s playing in the early races to confirm any leader’s bias or not. I’m currently banking on leaders getting every chance and worst case even, best case advantaged.
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Race 1: We start with a benchmark 84 for the fillies and mares over 1600m and although KANIANA is all the rage and the one to beat, liking a couple here who are well weighted against her, after last start defeats. Additionally, rail position may provide some assistance to on pacers and given minimal pace on paper here, could be the place to be. The two in question are TAKEOVER @ $14+ (BET365) and CHOICE @ $9+ also with BET365. Given the odds will make TAKEOVER a BEST VALUE bet of the day. Main danger the obvious in KANIANA who is low flying.
SUGGEST: **TAKEOVER** (EACH WAY) @ $14+, CHOICE (EACH WAY) @ $9+, FIRST FOUR (3 / F / F / 5, 10) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 2: Next, is an open event also over the mile (1600m) and as expected RAW IMPULSE is all the rage, and another who is the clear cut one to beat, however can’t get excited by the $1.85+ on offer first up. Think there are two legitimate dangers in the form of MIHANY for the Hayes & Dabernig yard @ $6+ (CROWNBET and BET365), who should be allowed to dictate up front, as well as MASTER ZEPHYR @ $6.50+ (UNIBET).
SUGGEST: MIHANY (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $6+, MASTER ZEPHYR (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $6.50+, FIRST FOUR (roving 5, 7, 8 / F) (CONFIDENCE 30%)
Race 3: Now for the three year olds over the obscure distance of 1514m. Tough race, with plenty of guesswork, and many different form lines to try and line up. Importantly, unlike the opening two races, there does look to be decent pace on paper (which would only be amplified if there is any apparent bias after first two) and for that reason, think we’re looking for one settling behind the leading pack. Slight lean CONGRESSIONAL @ $15+ (BET365), ahead of LARRIKIN @ $34+ with SPORTSBET and BET365. Main dangers BENNY GOES BERZERK, LORD MACAU, JUNIOR BURGER and HAVILDAR.
SUGGEST: CONGRESSIONAL (EACH WAY) @ $15+, LARRIKIN (EACH WAY) @ $34+, FIRST FOUR (2, 3, 4, 9 / 2, 3, 4, 8, 9, 10 / F / 8, 10) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 4: Next is a benchmark 78 over the 1514m again, and once again plenty of pace on paper. Tough race, plenty of chances, with pace/tactics/luck in runner set to be key. Slight lean at odds to WHEATSHEAF FLYER @ $14+ (BET365), who was super last time after being forced to sit back given wide gate, but doesn’t need to settle so far back here. Should get pace to suit, and if those off the pace are getting their chance, looks great each way value. Then, can entertain THE BANDIT at a massive $41+ with LADBROKES, SPORTSBET, BOOKMAKERS, CROWNBET and BETSTAR. Main dangers MOSS ‘N’ DALE, MR INDIVIDUAL and VOSTOK.
SUGGEST: WHEATSHEAF FLYER (EACH WAY) @ $14+, THE BANDIT (EACH WAY) @ $41+, FIRST FOUR (2, 6, 10 / F / F / 3, 11) (CONFIDENCE 30%)
Race 5: Now for the Group 2 Mcewen Stakes over 1000m and what a cracking race, and one thing’s for sure, they are going to fly. As a result, just can’t help but think the leaders may fold late, and as a result slight lean SHIEDEL @ $5.50+ (most operators), ahead of RELDAS at a tidy $15+ with UBET. Most runners with some claims, main danger HEATHERLY.
SUGGEST: SHIEDEL (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $5.50+, RELDAS (EACH WAY) @ $15+, FIRST FOUR (F / 5 / F / 3), (8 / F / F / 3, 5) (CONFIDENCE 30%)
Race 6: Now for the Listed Atlantic Jewel Stakes for the three year old filles over 1200m and this is tough! As a result, searching for value and think best value lies with *SHE’S POSITIVE* @ $36+ (BET365) and GRETNA $18+ (SPORTSBET). Given the odds will make SHE’S POSITIVE a BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day. Main dangers ATHENA LASS, TAN TAT BEAUTY, SWEET SHERRY, PICCADILLIES and MERRIEST, but race runs much deeper.
SUGGEST: *SHE’S POSITIVE* (EACH WAY) @ $36+, GRETNA (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $18+, FIRST FOUR (5, 11, 13, 14, 16 / 6, 10 / 5, 11, 13, 14, 16 / 6, 10) (CONFIDENCE 25%)
Race 7: Now for a quality Listed event over 1200m and despite the field, think this one is fairly self-explanatory in the form of VOODOO LAD @ $3.10+ with UBET, SPORTSBET and BET365. Primary play on a WIN only basis. Then, secondary plays on the consistent old fella who loves Moonee Valley in LE BONSIR @ $34+ (SPORTSBET, WILLIAM HILL) and ROUGH JUSTICE @ $20+ (most operators). Both weren’t far away last time and get in very well at the weights given losing margins last time. Main danger FAST ‘N” ROCKING and KEEN ARRAY.
SUGGEST: VOODOO LAD (WIN) @ $3.10+, LE BONSIR (EACH WAY) @ $34+, ROUGH JUSTICE (EACH WAY) @ $20+, FIRST FOUR (1, 4 / 3 / F / 7, 8), (F / 1, 4 / 3 / 7, 8) (CONFIDENCE 40%)
Race 8: Penultimate event is the feature of the day, the Group 2 Data Tan Nam Stakes run over the mile (1600m). Most come out of the P B Lawrence and although I don’t have a major issue with that race, just have a guy feeling that I prefer to be on those who didn’t contend that race. As much as we love JACQUINOT BAY and he’s been very good to us over time, he almost saluted as a young 9 year old, hence a slight query on the race at this level. As a result, that effectively allows the field to be narrowed down substantially, and the three that remain at the end are arguably the two best horses in the race in **TOSEN STARDOM** @ $6.50+ (WILLIAM HILL, UBET, UNIBET), THE UNITED STATES @ $7+ (BET365) and longshot *REAL LOVE* @ $51+ with PALMERBET. Slight lean to the toppy and as a result will make a BEST VALUE bet of the day. Whilst, given the odds for *REAL LOVE*, happy to make a BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day. Main dangers SUAVITO, MISS ROSE DE LAGO and THE CLEANER.
SUGGEST: **TOSEN STARDOM** (EACH WAY) @ $6.50+, THE UNITED STATES (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $7+, *REAL LOVE* (EACH WAY – SECONDARY) @ $51+, FIRST FOUR (3, 10, 12 / 1, 2 / F / F) (CONFIDENCE 40%)
Race 9: And we finish with an open event over the famous 2040m circuit at the Valley. Originally had O’LONERA on top, however has been scratched, hence a re-assessment required. Lloyd Williams plays a key role in the race with three runners, all either first up front break, or even first time in Australia, so plenty of guesswork. Slight lean KILLARNEY KID @ $4.60+ with UBET and BET365, despite the rise in weight. Going extremely well, and Weird has a way of keeping them winning once they get on a roll. Scared stiff of the Williams/Hickmott runners and I’d be having something on which ever one is best backed closer to jump time. Main dangers Williams runners (ALMANDIN, HANS HOLBEIN and ALOFT), PIN YOUR HOPES and BOLD SNIPER. Tough finish!
SUGGEST: KILLARNEY KID (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $4.60+, ??LLOYD WILLIAMS RUNNER BACKED LATE?? (WIN) @ $TBC+, FIRST FOUR (3, 4, 6, 8, 10 / 2 / F / 3, 4, 6, 8, 10) (CONFIDENCE 30%)
Average odds $17.90+ per suggested runner!
** BEST VALUE **: TAKEOVER @ $14+, TOSEN STARDOM @ $6.50+
*BEST LONGSHOT*: SHE’S POSITIVE @ $36+, REAL LOVE @ $51+