ALL SPORT PUNTING DUNGEON
SATURDAY SEPTEMBER 3, 2016
Racing at ROYAL RANDWICK with the penetrometer reading 6.21, hence currently looking at a HEAVY (9) surface.
RAIL: +6M (ENTIRE CIRCUIT). We head to ROYAL RANDWICK and unfortunately another heavy track. It just doesn’t stop raining in Sydney, but you’ll inevitably see a facebook pic from your fellow Sydney-siders as soon as it’s a sunny day. J Rail now out +6M, after it was out +3M two weeks’ back. As usual, be sure to keep an eye on early races for best guide, especially given the heavy conditions here once again.
Race 1: We start with a benchmark 80 over 1600m and this comes down to how the track is playing, which we simply won’t know until we’ve seen at least some action at Randwick today. The obvious are SIGNPOSTED and SO WILLIE, with SIGNPOSTED set to lead and should actually get a quite comfortable lead up front, while SO WILLIE will get back and be running on. Given odds for both are skinny, I’d prefer to keep your money in the pocket and on this occasion watch the first couple of races, before investing or even suggesting anything to invest in.
SUGGEST: NO BET AT THIS STAGE (CONFIDENCE 0%)
Race 2: Similar to the above, there are those who look the obvious, notable DUBAIINSTYLE here, who should get the ideal run with Bowman aboard, however wary of taking red figures on a day like this. Especially, when you have the likes of THUNDER DOWN UNDER who we know is better than Australian form suggests and looks ready to improve and re-capture NZ form which is very good. Sometimes, as punters we need to be patient, and on this occasion I think we’re best placed to wait, watch and learn.
SUGGEST: NO BET AT THIS STAGE (CONFIDENCE 0%)
Race 3: Group 3 Ming Dynasty for the three year olds over 1400m and tricky given track and different fitness levels, however think HIGH MIST is going places and we should start seeing that this prep. May find this a touch short, but hopefully that is offset by the heavy track and should be hitting the line hard. Happy for a win only investment @ $4+ with most operators.
SUGGEST: HIGH MIST (WIN) @ $4+ (CONFIDENCE 40%)
Race 4: Class 3 Highway Handicap also over 1400m. GALAXY WARRIOR all the rage and may simply be too good, however can’t entertain the very skinny $2.60+. Never seen a heavy track, and although he smashed them on a soft track last start, can’t be certain enough at the price. Purely given price, leaning towards TRYING @ $14+ (most operators) and *COMING IN HOT* @ $19+ with LUXBET. TRYING drawn poorly but that may not necessarily be a bad thing, especially as the day progresses and they start getting off the fence. Given the odds will make COMING IN HOT a BEST LONGSHOT of the day. Main dangers GALAXY WARRIOR, SQUIDENSQUIZZ and ASSURITY.
SUGGEST: TRYING (EACH WAY) @ $14+, *COMING IN HOT* (EACH WAY) @ $19+, FIRST FOUR (1, 4, 6 / 1, 4, 6 / F / 5, 12), (1, 4, 6 / F / 1, 4, 6 / 5, 12) (CONFIDENCE 30%)
Race 5: Benchmark 92 over 1400m and going to keep this one simple and go with the ‘best horse’ rule, especially given proven on heavy track. The one I speak of is TSARITSA who was good to followers last time and although not in the Winx mould, don’t think Chris Waller would have looked to risk today if unsure about the heavy conditions. $3.10 with UBET nice price for this first up. Note, no third dividend.
SUGGEST: TSARITSA (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $3.10+ (CONFIDENCE 45%)
Race 6: Now for the Group 2 Fast and Furious for the three year old fillies over 1200m. Good race, not easy, but at this stage leaning towards FOXPLAY @ $9+ (most operators) and *CHIPANDA* @ $13+ with UBET and LUXBET. Given age and where many are in their preps, not to mentioned somewhat limited race experience in heavy tracks, be sure to respect any significant market moves. Given the odds, will make CHIPANDA a BEST LONGSHOT of the day.. Main danger AWOKE and BACARELLA, but doesn’t end there.
SUGGEST: FOXPLAY (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $9+, *CHIPANDA* (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $13+, FIRST FOUR (5, 8 / F / F / 6, 7) (CONFIDENCE 30%)
Race 7: Now for today’s Sydney feature, the Group 2 Chelmsford over the Randwick mile (1600m) and safe to say the race has changed complexion with the race day scratching of the super star WINX who was $1.15 in this market. The upside is we now have a legitimate race on our hands and can start exploring value. I know it’s still well short of ideal distances, but WHO SHOT THEBARMAN @ $10+ (LADBROKES, BOOKMAKERS.COM.AU, BETSTAR) looks to be set for a big prep given recent trial form. Main dangers HARTNELL and PRIZED ICON.
SUGGEST: WHO SHOT THEBARMAN (EACH WAY) @ $10+, FIRST FOUR (roving 2, 3, 8 / F) (CONFIDENCE 30%)
Race 8: Penultimate event in the Group 2 Tramway Stakes over 1400m and given the heavy conditions, have quickly narrowed this down to three. Finding it hard to split **LE ROMAIN** @ $6+ (most operators) and SADLER’S LAKE @ $5.50+. Very slight lean LE ROMAIN who I’ll also make a BEST VALUE bet of the day, while I’d play SADLER’S LAKE on a WIN only basis. Main danger SONS OF JOHN who at double figure odds, I would upgrade if we were to get an upgrade and end up on SOFT range, as opposed to HEAVY, which is the only query.
SUGGEST: **LE ROMAIN** (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $6+, SADLER’S LAKE (WIN) @ $5.50+, FIRST FOUR (roving 1, 5, 7 / F) (CONFIDENCE 45%)
Race 9: We finish with the Group 3 Concorde Stakes over 1000m and pushing the ‘best horse’ button here with **JAPONISME** @ $2.60+ (WILLIAM HILL, LUXBET) who has been very good to followers in the past and don’t see any reason why we won’t end up in the winner’s stall again here. The obvious query is the weight, but deserves the weight given track record. Handicap rating clearly superior to all other here and given the day, happy to make a BEST VALUE bet of the day.
SUGGEST: **JAPONISME** (WIN) @ $2.60+ (CONFIDENCE 50%)
Average odds a juicy $8.62+ per suggested runner!
** BEST VALUE **: LE ROMAIN @ $6+, JAPONISME @ $2.60+
*BEST LONGSHOTS*: CHIPANDA @ $13+, COMING IN HOT @ $19+