ALL SPORT PUNTING DUNGEON
FRIDAY, SEPTEMBER 30, 2016
We return to racing at MOONEE VALLEY with the penetrometer reading 4.47, so currently looking at a GOOD (4) surface.
RAIL: TRUE (ENTIRE CIRCUIT). We head to MOONEE VALLEY with the rail back to the TRUE position and after walking the track this morning, the ‘preferred going’ and ‘place to be’ is approximately 3-4 off the fence (5 maximum), although the sun is out, hence ‘worse’ areas (near the fence and 6+ wide) may improve throughout the day. Given all this, think the ideal spot (pace dependant) is 2-3 wide with cover, ideally behind the leaders to midfield. As always, be sure to watch early races for best guide.
Race 1: We start with a benchmark 90 over 1500m and think the one over the odds at the moment is SADAQA (no, not CHAUTAUQUA just yet) at a tidy $8.50+ with CROWNBET, BET365 and SPORTSBET. Then want a more speculative play on *SONNTAG* who can run a cheeky race fresh at a big $51+. Given the odds will make a BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day. Main danger PLOT THE COURSE, MARWOOD and MR INDIVIDUAL who is rock bottom odds.
SUGGEST: SADAQA (EACH WAY) @ $8.50+, *SONNTAG* (EACH WAY) @ $51+, FIRST FOUR (5, 7, 8 / 2, 4, 5, 7, 8 / F / 2, 4) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 2: Next is a three year old open event for the colts and geldings to be run over 1200m. Competitive affair with pace/tactics set to be key and there does look to be decent tempo up front. Keen to predominately play around two here in the form of **BENZ** @ $10+ (BET365) and BLUE TYCOON @ $7.50+ (WILLIAM HILL). Just think they both get the right runs in transit, off the fence, with cover, behind what looks a strong tempo, and in a position to peel around them as they straighten. Not to mention both are in good form. Given the odds will make BENZ a BEST VALUE bet of the day. Then want a more speculative play on one at huge odds in the form of CENTAURO @ $81+ with most operators. Main dangers KEN’S DREAM, DAM READY and CURVATURE, who is also at juicy odds.
SUGGEST: **BENZ** (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $10+, BLUE TYCOON (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $7.50+, CENTAURO (EACH WAY) @ $81+, FIRST FOUR (2, 7, 9 / 3, 6 / F / 3, 6, 7, 11) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 3: Next is the first of the features, starting with the Group 3 JRA Cup to be run over 2040m, and not much between many of these here. Tricky race, but jumping back aboard REAL LOVE @ $4+ (UBET, BET365) who almost landed us a massive quaddie, but was the only leg missed at 50/1 when 2nd to Awesome Rock first up. Back at the Valley, can get a better run in transit and hit the line hard and hopefully best. Also want something on one of the more underrated horses running around, in the form of MAGNAPAL @ $9.50+ with BET365. Will leave it at that, deep race, many legitimate winning chances.
SUGGEST: REAL LOVE (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $4+, MAGNAPAL (EACH WAY) @ $9.50+ (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 4: Next is the 955m dash, a benchmark 90 event and this is close to a raffle. Extremely difficult and a lot will depend on how the track is playing. Slight lean GUN CASE at $3.50+ with BET365. Then a secondary play on GALLANT HARMONY at a decent $15+ with BET365. Main dangers GENERAL JACKSON (would have been keen if hadn’t drawn barrier 1), ESTAMINET and IT IS WRITTEN at a tidy price also.
SUGGEST: GUN CASE (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $3.50+, GALLANT HARMONY (EACH WAY) @ $15+, FIRST FOUR (1, 6, 7 / 4, 5 / F / 4, 5) (CONFIDENCE 30%)
Race 5: Now for the Group 2 Stutt Stakes for the three year olds to be run over the mile (1600m). Competitive affair with pace/tactics set to be key. Slight lean TESSERA @ $7+ with CROWNBET and BET365. Then want something on *THE RICH FISHER* at a massive $91+ (SPORTSBET), very rare to see a Hayes/Dabernig runner at such odds, especially one who is 1 from 2, but a big step up here straight to town. Given the odds will make a BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day. Main dangers DETECTIVE (who saluted for followers last time at $10), INFERENCE and KACHING who will be flying home from the rear from the wide gate.
SUGGEST: TESSERA (EACH WAY) @ $7+, *THE RICH FISHER* (EACH WAY) @ $91+, FIRST FOUR (1, 6, 8 / 1, 2, 6, 8, 11 / F / 1, 2, 6, 8, 11) (CONFIDENCE 30%)
Race 6: Next is the Group 2 Stocks Stakes for the mares over 1600m and a cracking little event, competitive as usual with these mare events. Slight lean to DON’T DOUBT MAMMA @ $3.70+ with most operators, who we’ve been on all prep and no reason to jump off now. We were happy to salute last time when stuck in the inferior ground, but still good enough to win, as we were about to throw the ticket in the bin. Also, want something on KANIANA at a juicy $19+ with SPORTSBET, CROWNBET and BET365. Going well, needs to step up in this grade but think she can and drawn to get the right run. Main dangers RISING ROMANCE (the one down in class after always running in Group 1s) and MISS ROSE DE LAGO.
SUGGEST: DON’T DOUBT MAMMA (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $3.70+, KANIANA (EACH WAY) @ $19+, FIRST FOUR (1, 2 / 7, 10 / F / 7, 10) (CONFIDENCE 40%)
Race 7: Now for the feature, the Group 1 Moir Stakes and what a cracking race awaits us all. Pace/tactics key as is the fortunes of the likes of HEATHERLEY and co, in terms of whether they jump cleanly or not. Also hearing EXTREME CHOICE may go back, which is interesting, especially if they jump very well. In saying that, regardless of both of those instances and more, I think this one remains simple and we run with the ‘Best Horse’ rule. Hence, we suggest being on the best sprinter in the world CHAUTAUQUA @ $2.30+ with CROWNBET. Flies fresh, handles the Valley and most importantly will appreciate the hot tempo up front. Time for the grey flash to go wooshka! The others who look overs from a value perspective include BALL OF MUSCLE, REDZEL, WILD RAIN and HEATHERLEY @ $21+, $26+, $26+ & $15+ respectively, hence suggest throwing them across multiples.
SUGGEST: CHAUTAUQUA (WIN) @ $2.30+, FIRST FOUR (boxed 2, 4, 5, 6, 7), (4, 5, 6, 7 / 2 / F / F) (CONFIDENCE 65%)
Race 8: We finish with a benchmark 90 over 1200m and a good, even, competitive affair. I think the JUST MAGICAL race on August 20 is the form line, and after weighing form since, weights and measures, have come out with FAST CASH @ $9+ (SPORTSBET) and MAGNUS REIGN @ $12+ (LUXBET) on top and the ones I want to be one. Importantly, given the expectation of how the track will play, this is key to their success, hence hopefully they get the necessary luck on their side. Slight lean FAST CASH if push comes to shove and as a result will make a BEST VALUE bet of the day. Main dangers SIR BACCHUS, JUST MAGICAL and SEBRING SUN.
SUGGEST: **FAST CASH** (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $9+, MAGNUS REIGN (EACH WAY) @ $12+, FIRST FOUR (4, 7, 10 / 6, 8 / F / 6, 8) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Average odds $20.87+ per suggested runner!
** BEST VALUE **: BENZ @ $10+, FAST CASH @ $9+
*BEST LONGSHOT*: SONNTAG @ $51+, THE RICH FISHER @ $91+