SATURDAY JANUARY 21, 2016
Racing at ROYAL RANDWICK with the penetrometer reading 5.31, hence currently looking at a SOFT (5) surface.
RAIL: TRUE (ENTIRE CIRCUIT). We head to ROYAL RANDWICK with the rail back in the TRUE position. Expecting / hoping for an even track, pace dependant, however expecting no major disadvantage to be off the fence. As usual, be sure to keep an eye on early races for best guide.
Race 1: We start with the two year olds over 1000m. EDEN ROC looks the one, but the value is gone and with $2.20 max odds. Several other had very soft trials and as a result, can’t jump into the short price, despite conceding will be hard to beat. Save for multies, instead of big standalone investment. Instead, prefer a play on KRISTENSEN @ $23+ (LUXBET, CROWNBET), very rare you get a Waterhouse first starter who won a trial at such odds. Was pushed out, but was a couple of weeks ago, and hopefully has improved since. Main dangers EDEN ROC, ULTRAMARINE and WATCHDOG who all come out of the same trial.
SUGGEST: KRISTENSEN (EACH WAY) @ $23+, FIRST FOUR (2, 6, 7 / 2, 6, 7 / F / 3), (2, 6, 7 / F / 2, 6, 7 / 3) (CONFIDENCE 25%)
Race 2: Next are the three year olds over 1000m. Primary WIN only play SPENDING TO WIN @ $3.50+ (LUXBET, CROWNBET), ahead of secondary each way play *ON THE SPOT* @ $19+ with BET365 who gets a big 5kg swing in the weights against key rival GUARD OF HONOUR for a 1.3L defeat last time. Given the price, will make a BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day. Note, no third dividend.
SUGGEST: SPENDING TO WIN (WIN - PRIMARY) @ $3.50+, *ON THE SPOT* (EACH WAY - SECONDARY) @ $19+, FIRST FOUR (F / 5 / 4 / F) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 3: Next is a benchmark 78 over the mile (1600m) with all seven runners in single figures, hence a very competitive affair if the market is anything to go by. Going with the class here in top-weight HARLEM LADY @ $3.90+ (CENTREBET, WILLIAM HILL) who is running out of excuses, but shouldn’t have any here. Will appreciate each of the firmer track, the bigger track and the extra distance. Throw a blanket over the rest. No third dividend.
SUGGEST: HARLEM LADY (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $3.90+ (CONFIDENCE 40%)
Race 4: Next is the class 2 Highway over 1200m.Competitive race with many legitimate winning chances. In saying that, leaning towards AND THERE IS MORE @ $8.50+ with LUXBET and UNIBET. In form, running good time, not drawn well, however hopefully that is offset by gun hoop Shinn aboard. Also want something on longshot *WHITE EAGLE* @ $34+ with most operators. Has also been running good time and hasn’t been far aware in recent times. Up in grade, but down in weight with only 53kg. Given the price will make a BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day. Main dangers CLIPPER, SNOWBROOK and CARE TO THINK.
SUGGEST: AND THERE IS MORE (EACH WAY) @ $8.50+, *WHITE EAGLE* (EACH WAY) @ $34+, FIRST FOUR (6, 9, 12 / 5, 6, 9, 12, 13 / F / 5, 13) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 5: Benchmark 78 over 2000m and a very competitive affair, again highlighted by the fact that six of the eight starters are in single figures. And I’m actually going to plauy the rank outsider in MANHATTAN SON @ $16+ with WILLIAM HILL, LUXBET and CENTREBET. Main danger EMBLEY, then throw a blanket over the rest.
SUGGEST: MANHATTAN SON (EACH WAY) @ $16+, FIRST FOUR (3 / F / F / 8) (CONFIDENCE 25%)
Race 6: Benchmark 82 over the mile (1600m) and going with the class again here, in the form of CAUTHEN’S POWER @ $3.50+ (LUXBET) who I think can go back to back after winning well last time after a freshen up, after being a little disappointing of late. Looks to be back on track and as a result hard to beat. Main dangers OLYMPIC ACADEMY and LIAPARI.
SUGGEST: CAUTHEN’S POWER (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $3.50+, FIRST FOUR (2, 9 / 1 / F / F), (2, 9 / F / F / 1) (CONFIDENCE 40%)
Race 7: Now for the feature, the Listed Carrington Stakes to be run over 1400m and another very competitive affair with 6 of the 7 runners in single figure odds. Going with the class once again here in top weight ECUADOR @ $3.80+ with WILLIAM HILL. The stable have been patient of late and has a sensational strike rate, winning 9 from 29 starts, including 17 top two finishes! Is normally on/off and hopefully will be on here. Throw another blanket over the rest.
SUGGEST: ECUADOR (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $3.80+ (CONFIDENCE 40%)
Race 8: Penultimate event is a benchmark 76 over 1400m. Playing around the Waller runners here, starting with **HOGMANAY** @ $5+ (most operators) who is low flying this prep. Ran well last start despite missing out on a hat trick of win, but can bounce back here. Happy to make a BEST VALUE bet of the day. Primary play. Also, want a secondary play on stablemate AVONACO @ $21+ with most operators. Looks a better race and no excuses here, can bounce back at a price, with the best in the business Hugh Bowman aboard. Main dangers KING DARCI, SONIC SWISH and IMANUI.
SUGGEST: **HOGMANAY** (EACH WAY - PRIMARY) @ $5+, AVONACO (EACH WAY - SECONDARY) @ $21+, FIRST FOUR (5, 7, 10 / 3 / F / 2, 5, 7, 10) (CONFIDENCE 40%)
Race 9: We finish a benchmark 84 over 1200m and don’t see any reason to jump off last start juicy winner ($22.80) in **KUDERO** who is $10+ here with most operators. Given the price, happy to make another BEST VALUE bet of the day at the juicy double figure price. Main dangers DEPLOY and SUSPENSE.
SUGGEST: **KUDERO** (EACH WAY) @ $10+, FIRST FOUR (roving 1, 4, 6 / F), (4, 6 / F / F / 1) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Average odds $12.60+ per suggested runner!
** BEST VALUE **: HOGMANAY @ $5+, KUDERO @ $10+
*BEST LONGSHOT*: ON THE SPOT @ $19+, WHITE EAGLE @ $34+