SATURDAY, JANUARY 21, 2016
We return to racing at MOONEE VALLEY for the first time in 2017 with the penetrometer reading 4.68, hence looking at a GOOD (4) surface, despite plenty of rain Thursday night/Friday.
RAIL: TRUE (ENTIRE CIRCUIT). We head to MOONEE VALLEY with the rail remaining in the TRUE position, just as it was on new year’s eve. Normally equates to the fairest rail position, and normally not as much of a disadvantage to be coming from off the pace, away from the fence. No reason not to expect a fair surface, with all getting their chance, pace dependant. Be sure to keep an eye on early races for best guide.
Race 1: We start with a benchmark 78 for the three year olds over 1200m, and a very tough start to the card with many legitimate winning chances. 6 of the 8 runners in single figure odds illustrates the competitive nature of the race. In saying that, I’m actually going to suggest a play on the rank outsider here in *SEGOVIA* @ $31+ with WILLIAM HILL. Actually gets a 3.5kg swing against key rival INVINCIBLE AL for their meeting on December 3 at Pakenham. Given the price, will make a BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day. Also want a play on INVINCIBLE AL @ $5+ (most operators) on the quick backup after finishing third to Capanello (against our INNW) last week. Adamant he (and INNW) were on the inferior ground closer to the inside and he did over race, and arguably better around the bend. Can bounce back here. Main danger STRICLY LEGIT.
SUGGEST: *SEGOVIA* (EACH WAY) @ $34+, INVINCIBLE AL (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $5+ (CONFIDENCE 30%)
Race 2: Next is a benchmark 78 over the mile (1600m) and another very competitive race, with 6 of the 8 single figures again. Slight lean at the odds for TESSABELLE at $12+ with PALMERBET. Racing well and gets in well enough at the weights on the minimum here and there are many who ghet way back, hence might just get that right run behind leaders but ahead of many of the key chances who may all be towards the rear. Also, want something on AURORA GLOW @ $6+ with most operators. Won well last time and can make it back to back wins here in a competitive affair. Main dangers LA SPECIALE, ZASORCERESS and OUR OBSESSION.
SUGGEST: TESSABELLE (EACH WAY) @ $12+, AURORA GLOW (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $6+, FIRST FOUR (6, 7, 8 / 3, 10 / F / 3, 10) (CONFIDENCE 30%)
Race 3: Next is a benchmark 78 over 2040m. Think best value lies with PRESSCOTT here at a very respectable $12+ with SPORTSBET, CROWNBET and CENTREBET. Loved the way he kept coming late last time, telling me the step up to 2040m will suit. Will need some luck from the gate, but Dunn aboard and three wide with cover may not be the worst place to be on this track with the rail TRUE. Also want a play on BLUE OCEAN @ $8.50+ with UBET, WILLIAM HILL and LUXBET. Won well last start and can go on with it despite the jump in grade. Main dangers ATLANTIC EXPRESS, SASSOON and IGITUR but not overly confident in any in particular, hence throwing them into 2nd in first four.
SUGGEST: PRESSCOTT (EACH WAY) @ $12+, BLUE OCEAN (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $8.50+, FIRST FOUR (F / 1, 4, 6, 8, 11 / F / 6, 11) (CONFIDENCE 30%)
Race 4: Next is an open event over 1500m and BURNING FRONT is all the rage after heavy backing since early markets opened and now into $1.65 with most operators. I can’t take that price, which is big unders and instead will play one who we’ve had luck with in recent times in the form of **HARD CALL** at $5+ with most operators. Happy to make a BEST VALUE bet of the day at the price. Just the two needed in early quaddies and similar.
SUGGEST: **HARD CALL** (EACH WAY) @ $5+, FIRST FOUR (1 / F / F / 5) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 5: Benchmark 84 over 1600m and DOMINO VITALE looks very hard to beat here at $2.50+ with UBET and SPORTSBET. Drops 4.5kg following dominant win and this isn’t much harder. Drawn well, Williams aboard, very hard to beat. Main dangers SEE HIPPARCHUS, WHAT I BRING and SWORD OF JUSTICE.
SUGGEST: DOMINO VITALE (WIN) @ $2.50+, FIRST FOUR (2, 8, 9 / 5 / F / F) (CONFIDENCE 55%)
Race 6: Next is a benchmark 78 over 2040m and this looks a two horse race for mine in the form of BIG DUKE @ $2.15+ (WILLIAM HILL) and COOL CHAP @ $5+ (UBET). Narrow start to the quaddie and happy to simply play around the two best horses in the race. Suggest playing COOL CHAP at the better odds standalone, and BIG DUKE through multies and similar.
SUGGEST: COOL CHAP (EACH WAY) @ $5+, FIRST FOUR (F / 6 / F / 1) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 7: Now for a benchmark 84 over 1000m and yet another ultra-competitive race as illustrated by the market with most at single figure odds. Best value lies with **RUNSATI** @ $9+ (WILLIAM HILL, BET365, CENTREBET) and OLIVIER @ $13+ with WILLIAM HILL and CENTREBET. **RUNSATI** comes out of a good form race after Decision Time got the chocolates for dungeon followers at a huge price. Zupacharged (3rd) franked the form last week, while **RUNSATI** was 2nd. Given the price, will make a BEST VALUE bet of the day. OLIVIER can improve third up with additional fitness on side and handy 2kg claim. Was wide the trip last time and entitled to fold late after having no cover. Main dangers CRYSTAL DREAMER and MANOLO BLAHNIQ, but doesn’t end there.
SUGGEST: **RUNSATI** (EACH WAY) @ $9+, OLIVIER (EACH WAY) @ $13+, FIRST FOUR (2, 9 / 1, 3 / F / 1, 3) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 8: Penultimate event is a benchmark 90 over 1200m and at the risk of sounding like a broken record, as the market suggests a very even and ultra-competitive field. Every runner at single figure odds, with the exception of the one I want to be on in LONROCKSTAR at $15+ with BET365. Drops from group 3 level when not far away and gets important 2kg claim from Beau Mertens. Hasn’t won for a while, hence the price, but his best is better than both of these and both runs this prep have been good. Needs to boost the ‘good’ to ‘very good’ and if so can be right in this at a price. Literally, throw a blanket over the rest and I mean all other runners. All can win.
SUGGEST: LONROCKSTAR (EACH WAY) @ $15+ (CONFIDENCE 30%)
Race 9: And we finish with a benchmark 84 for the fillies and mares, also over 1200m. Tried hard to get the favourite beat, as she’s normally been a runner always of little value in the past, but this looks a perfect way for AMERISTRALIA @ $2.50+ (CROWNBET, UBET) to open her account this prep. Looks to be the best horse in the race and the stable will be aiming for bigger, better things moving forward, but first would need to dispose of this lot. Hard to beat, suggest primary play on a WIN only basis. Also, want a secondary play on *MUST BE MINK* at $26+ with CENTREBET and BET365. Given the price will make a BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day. Consistent galloper and although up in class, can be in the finish at her best. Main danger CHEEKY BABE.
SUGGEST: AMERISTRALIA (WIN - PRIMARY) @ $2.50+, *MUST BE MINK* (EACH WAY – SECONDARY) @ $26+, FIRST FOUR (roving 5, 6, 8 / F), (F / 6, 8 / 6, 8 / F) (CONFIDENCE 50%)
Average odds $11.11+ per suggested runner!
** BEST VALUE **: HARD CALL @ $5+, RUNSATI @ $9+
*BEST LONGSHOT*: SEGOVIA @ $34+, MUST BE MINK @ $26+