SATURDAY, JANUARY 28, 2016
Racing at ROSEHILL GARDENS with the penetrometer reading 4.99, hence currently looking at a GOOD (4) surface.
RAIL: TRUE (ENTIRE CIRCUIT). We head to ROSEHILL GARDENS with fine conditions forecast and the rail back to the TRUE position. No reason why we shouldn’t expect a level playing field, pace dependant, but be sure to keep a close eye on how track is playing early on for best guide.
Race 1: We start with the Group 3 Canonbury Stakes for the two year old colts and geldings over 1100m. Small, but even bunch, but unlike Victoria, at least we have easy to access official trials to reference. Many have trialled well, but think best value lies with HUALALAI at $12+ with CROWNBET, PALMERBET and SPORTSBET. Was a $1.30 favourite on debut when disappointing, however pulled up with a poor recovery rate, hence had an excuse. Has since toyed with them in another trial, hence the price is big overs considering. Main dangers MENARI, SHOWTIME and PARIAH. No third dividend.
SUGGEST: HUALALAI (EACH WAY) @ $12+, FIRST FOUR (1, 2, 6 / 1, 2, 6 / 5 / F) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 2: Now for the two year old fillies, in the Group 3 Widden Stakes also over 1300m, and this is a raffle. Many form lines, many first starters, many first up runners after breaks. As a result, might as well have a throw at the stumps at a couple of first starters at odds, both who have trialled nicely and seems overs in the form of SAVATIANO @ $16+ (BET365, CROWNBET, PALMERBET) and SWEET DEAL @ $14+ with most operators. Then, throw a blanket over many others in a very tough race.
SUGGEST: SAVATIANO (EACH WAY) @ $16+, SWEET DEAL (EACH WAY) @ $14+, FIRST FOUR (F / 11, 13 / F / 11, 13) (CONFIDENCE 25%)
Race 3: Next is a benchmark 90 over 1500m and another even affair. As long as the track is even, and those midfield or worse are getting their chance, then following the omission of CHOICE WE HAD (who looked a big chance), think you can quickly narrow this down to **INVINZABEEL** @ $4.20+ with SPORTSBET. Given the price, will make a BEST VALUE bet of the day. That will do.
SUGGEST: **INVINZABEEL** (EACH WAY) @ $4.20+ (CONFIDENCE 40%)
Race 4: Class 3 TAB Highway Plate to be run over 1500m. Don’t see a reason to jump off the unbeaten RUTHLESS AGENT at a very respectable $5.50+ each way price with most operators. The barrier (14) is the obvious concern, but hopefully gun hoop Blake Shinn can offset that and find a spot with cover. If he can, then should be right in the finish. Then, also want something on *CALAWAY CRUIZER* @ $17+ with LUXBET. CROWNBET and PALMERBET. Was flying last prep (but on heavy tracks) then had a couple of runs who seemed too bad to be true before a decent break. Good first up return and should be better suited here with added fitness and up to 1500m trip. Happy to make a BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day. Main dangers MADAM DE BAN, BOLD BEGINNING and DALMATIA PRINCE.
SUGGEST: RUTHLESS AGENT (EACH WAY) @ $5.50+, *CALAWAY CRUIZER* (EACH WAY) @ $17, FIRST FOUR (11, 13, 15 / 11, 13, 15 / F / 6, 14), (11, 13, 15 / F / 11, 13, 15 / 6, 14) (CONFIDENCE 30%)
Race 5: Next is a benchmark 72 for the three year olds over 1400m. Another even bunch, especially those shorter in the market as I think the bookies actually have this one right, led by NEPEAN, AUSTRALIANA and AWOKE at $6.50+, $3.70+ and $6 respectively. Given the prices, going to run with the suggested play on NEPEAN on an each way basis at $6.50+ with LADBROKES, BOOKMAKERS.COM.AU and BETSTAR. Main dangers the other two in AUSTRALIANA and AWOKE and happy to leave the last leg of the early quaddie to the three only.
SUGGEST: NEPEAN (EACH WAY) @ $6.50, FIRST FOUR (7, 8 / F / F / 5) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 6: First leg of the quaddie is the feature of the day, the Group 2 Expressway Stakes over 1200m. Small, but very competitive field with key play MUSIC MAGNATE all the rage first up at a skinny $1.95+. Personally, rather play the in-form KURO at $5.50+ with UNIBET. Seems to be back to his best and seems to be a confidence horse who definitely has that back. All runners with some claims here. No third dividend.
SUGGEST: KURO (EACH WAY) @ $5.50+ (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 7: Benchmark 85 over 2000m. Again, looking to stick to winning form, this time in the form of MONTAUK on the quick backup from last week @ $4.40+ with UNIBET and CROWNBET. Won well last week after having excuses at several prior, now with the confidence of returning to the winner’s stall, can make it back to back wins in back to back weeks. Main dangers the Bjorn Baker trio of VASSAL, EMBLEY and SEWREEL.
SUGGEST: MONTAUK (EACH WAY) @ $4.40+, FIRST FOUR (3, 4, 7 / 3, 4, 7 / F / 5), (3, 4, 7 / F / 3, 4, 7 / 5), (F / 3, 4, 7 / 3, 4, 7 / 5) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 8: Penultimate event is a benchmark 85 over 1100m and staying with one who has been goog to dungeon followers in the past and is ultra-consistent in the form of TOP STRIKER at $4.80+ with CROWNBET. Doesn’t know how to run a bad race and is decently weighted after the 2kf claim from Atkins. Also, want something on one we were on last time at odds, in *HURRARA* who is again juicy odds at $19+ with LADBROKES, BOOKMAKERS.COM.AU and BETSTAR. Hit the line well, with Dal Cielo no mug and arguably now onto bigger and better things. Has struggled in recent times over the trip, but not in the past and seems to be going better than recent preps. Given the price, happy to make a BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day, just as he was last time when runner up. A few here that could surprise, especially those first up from breaks, so be sure to monitor markets accordingly.
SUGGEST: TOP STRIKER (EACH WAY) @ $4.80+, *HURRARA* (EACH WAY) @ $19+, FIRST FOUR (F / 1, 3 / F / 1, 3) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 9: We finish with a benchmark 76 for the fillies and mares over 1350m. Enforcing the ‘best horse’ rule here in the form of top weight SEZANNE at $4+ with UBET, SPORTSBET and BET365. Won hot trial impressively earlier this week and looks ready to show her class against the older horses here. Given the price, happy to make a BEST VALUE bet of the day. Also, want a secondary play on COUNTESS MARINOV @ $14+ with BET365, CROWNBET and PALMERBET. Narrow final quaddie leg for mine.
SUGGEST: *SEZANNE* (EACH WAY) @ $4+, COUNTESS MARINOV (EACH WAY) @ $14+, FIRST FOUR (F / 1 / F / 8) (CONFIDENCE 50%)
Average odds a juicy $9.76+ per suggested runner!
** BEST VALUE **: INVINZABEEL @ $4.20+, SEZANNE @ $4+
*BEST LONGSHOT*: CALAWAY CRUIZER @ $17+, HURRARA @ $19+