SATURDAY, JANUARY 7, 2016
Racing at CAULFIELD with the how weather forecast, currently looking at a GOOD (4) surface, which I expect to be upgraded to a GOOD (3) throughout the day.
RAIL: +3M (ENTIRE CIRCUIT). Racing at Caulfield for the first time since Boxing Day when the rail was in the TRUE position. Hoping for an even track, pace dependant, however given the recent hot weather expecting no major disadvantage closer to pace/fence, however with a northerly breeze, every chance that you don’t necessarily want to be leading, but probably ideally sitting just behind the leaders who can do the grunt work from the 1000m mark to the bend. But, as always, be sure to keep a close eye on the track and how it’s playing in the early races for best guide.
Please note, with hot weather forecast (maximum of 27 degrees) in Melbourne today, important to see runners in the yard and try and ascertain if they are/aren't copping with the heat. Never a good sign to see a horse sweat up prior to a race, so if this is communicated/seen prior, be wary.
Race 1: We start with the two year olds over 1100m and although CATCHY looks hard to beat, can’t entertain at the very short $1.90+ price. We have first starters for both Godolphin and Smerdon and one who has run second to the handy Cao Cao. Happy to simply watch, learn and hopefully gain guide as to how track might play.
SUGGEST: NO BET AT THIS STAGE (CONFIDENCE 0%)
Race 2: Next is another benchmark 70 over 1100m for the three or four year olds and competitive affair with pace/tactics set to be key, with a bit of pace on paper. Slight lean MR DASHING @ $4.60+ with BET365. Hasn’t done much wrong to date and did well to hold on for second at the Valley as they went hard in that particular race, despite the track overall favouring those closer to the pace. Best value is DANCE WITH FONTEIN who should get beautiful run from gate 1 right behind the leader. $10+ (most operators) is good value for a secondary play here. Main danger NASDEX who arguably has the most potential and can definitely win here, however from barrier 8 will need a touch a luck.
SUGGEST: MR DASHING (WIN / EACH WAY - PRIMARY) @ $4.60+, DANCE WITH FONTEIN (WIN / EACH WAY - SECONDARY) @ $10+ (EACH WAY) @ $6.50+, FIRST FOUR (roving 1, 5, 6 / F) 8 / 2, 7 / F / 2, 7) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 3: Next is a benchmark 84 over 1200m and another competitive affair with many legitimate winning chances and pace/tactics again set to be key given decent pace on paper. Slight lean CANA @ $3.70+ (LADBROKES, BOOKMAKERS.COM.AU and BETSTAR), who just missed for us last time as Best Value of the day when nosed out on the line at the Valley. Should get the nice run just behind the leaders and if they go silly can sit back and pounce at the right time. Main danger DANUKI, the 1200m the slight query, especially if the pace is on, however in great form and can win. Throw a blanket over the rest.
SUGGEST: CANA (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $3.70+, FIRST FOUR (4 / 8 / F / F) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 4: Benchmark 70 for the three year old fillies and can’t go past INVICTUM DOMINA @ $4.20+ (most operators) again, after being extremely gallant for us last time behind the above average Fille Champagne. Didn’t expect the fave (and main danger) last time to come around us and be ahead of us on the turn, but loved how deep this girl dug late to just miss. Keen here, should be winning and will make a BEST VALUE bet of the day. Main danger NO TAN TAT who is the expected leader and not a great deal of pace up front, hoping/assuming we sit second, ahead of ALMA’S ROSSA.
SUGGEST: **INVICTUM DOMINA** (EACH WAY) @ $4.20+, FIRST FOUR (3, 7 / 2 / F / F), (3, 7 / F / F / 2) (CONFIDENCE 55%)
Race 5: Another benchmark 70, this time for the three and four year olds, over 1700m. Another competitive affair, however like one at a tidy each way price in CRAFTY DEVIL @ $9+ with LADBROKES, BOOKMAKERS.COM.AU and BETSTAR. Going on the assumption that she goes forward from the good gate (is adaptable), just like she did two back and if sitting first four, should give a great sight. Main danger ROYAL APPLAUSE whose chances increase bigtime if the track is giving backmarkers every chance, the concern is I doubt that will be the case.
SUGGEST: CRAFTY DEVIL (EACH WAY) @ $9+, FIRST FOUR (10 / F / F / 7) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 6: Main quaddie starts with a benchmark 84 for the fillies and mares over 1100m and there are several very short in the market, led by favourite AMERISTRALIA @ $1.95+ and personally happy to take on those short in the market and play a few at juicy odds. Primary play is on one we have been on a couple of times of late providing place dividends at better than money back and after a freshen up, hoping it’s time to go one step further and head into the winner’s stalls. The one in question is CHIAVARI @ $8+ with LADBROKES, BOOKMAKERS.COM.AU and BETSTAR. Next is *PETITE’S REWARD* at a very juicy $31+ (PALMERBET, CROWNBET and BET365) who ties in very well with last start minor deficit to key rival here in LYUBA, importantly gets 1.5kg swing in the weights for only a 1.2L deficit. Super price considering, with LYUBA at only $4.80+. The query is the fact that he may lead which may mean a lot of hard work early, but at the price, happy to take the gamble with a spread in the race. As a result, will make a BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day. Finally, something also on PRUSSIAN VIXEN at $21+ with SPORTSBET. Was very good first up, has good second up record and there doesn’t seem to be a stack of pace here. Main dangers AMERISTRALIA and LYUBA despite representing little value.
SUGGEST: CHIAVARI (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $8+, *PETITE’S REWARD * (EACH WAY) @ $34+, PRUSSIAN VIXEN (EACH WAY) @ $21+, FIRST FOUR (2, 6 / 3, 4, 8 / F / 3, 4, 8) (CONFIDENCE 30%)
Race 7: Next is the Swettenham Stud Championship, a benchmark 84 over 1800m and this looks clear cut in the form of the promising PLEIN CIEL @ $2.10+ with most operators. Suggest on a primary WIN only basis. Again don’t want to be cutting the breeze, hence the spot right behind the leader should be exactly where he should land from gate 1. Main dangers COOL CHAP and REWARDING EFFORT. Only a skinny quaddie leg needed here for mine.
SUGGEST: PLEIN CIEL (WIN - PRIMARY) @ $2.10+, FIRST FOUR (2, 6 / 2, 5, 6 / F / F) (CONFIDENCE 50%)
Race 8: Penultimate event is over the mile (1600m) and this looks open with many legitimate winning chances. Pace/tactics key with decent pace on paper and we know MIHANY is always hard to be when not pressured, but there does looks to be some pressure expected here. Going with the Taswegian here in **HELLOVA STREET** @ $5.50+ with LADBROKES, BOOKMAKER.COM.AU and BETSTAR (for the not the first time today, those guys seem to have jacked up their prices, which is great). Has form behind/around Admiral and Jerilderie Letter which is good enough for this. Happy to make a BEST VALUIE bet of the day on an each way basis. Then, want something on one at massive odds in *FIRST COURSE* at $81+ with SPORTSBET and CROWNBET. Was only three starts back when he won a listed event first up which wasn’t much weaker than this (beat Cool Chap and Manageress), before having excuses past couple, including strong race Cup Day when Fabrizio demolished the field after being allowed to dictate. Given the mammoth price, will make a BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day. Main dangers MIHANY and THE NEW BOY, but race doesn’t end there. Deep race.
SUGGEST: **HELLOVA STREET** (EACH WAY - PRIMARY) @ $5.50+, *FIRST COURSE* (EACH WAY - SECONDARY) @ $81+, FIRST FOUR (2, 10 / F / F / 5, 8), (F / 5 / F / 8), (roving 2, 5, 10 / F) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 9: We finish with a benchmark 78 over 1400m and this is a tough finish with once again pace/tactics and how track is playing key. KING’S COMMAND the obvious one to beat, but in my opinion doesn’t represent value at a short $4+. Slight lean VIOLENT SNOW @ $9+ (most operators) who can make it back to back wins, after gaining much needed confidence winning last time at Caulfield over this same distance. Throw a blanket over many in a tough, open finish and leg last of the quaddie.
SUGGEST: VIOLENT SNOW (EACH WAY) @ $9+, FIRST FOUR (F / 1 / F / 9) (CONFIDENCE 25%)
Average odds $16.02+ per suggested runner!
** BEST VALUE **: INVICTUS DOMINA @ $4.20+, HELLOVA STREET @ $5.50+
*BEST LONGSHOTS*: PETITE’S REWARD @ $34+, FIRST COURSE @ $81+