14 October 2017 (Racing at Randwick)

PUNTING DUNGEON

WWW.PUNTINGDUNGEON.COM.AU

ROYAL RANDWICK

SATURDAY, OCTOBER 14, 2016

 

Racing at ROYAL RANDWICK and after a long stretch of good weather, we have 3-10mm forecast on Saturday which will make a big impact dependant on whether we end up with closer to the 3mm v closer to the 8mm. Currently so looking at SOFT (5) surface.

RAIL: +6M (ENTIRE CIRCUIT). We head to RANDWICK with the rail out +6M after being out +3M last week here. Hoping and expecting an even track, pace dependant. Especially given the weather situation, be sure to keep a close eye on the track and how it’s playing both early on and as the day progresses.

 

Race 1: We start with a benchmark 80 over 1400m. Tough start, and this can be looked at easy with DON’T GIVE A DAMN at a skinny $2.30 with most operators or wide open if you aren’t willing to take on the short quote. Actually prefer to play a few here at odds instead given less confidence in the race and as a result will dabble around CASCATA ROSSA at $10+ (LUXBET, SPORTSBET), MERCURIAL LAD at $26+ (CENTREBET) and *LAST TRY WINS* at a juicy $34+ with CENTREBET. All capable at this level, in decent enough form for this and most importantly each seem over the odds. At the price, happy to make *LAST TRY WINS* a BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day. Main dangers most definitely DON’T GIVE A DAMN, ahead of MY TAGOSON.

SUGGEST: CASCATA ROSSA (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $10+, MERCURIAL LAD (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $26+, *LAST TRY WINS* (EACH WAY) @ $34+, FIRST FOUR (3, 12 / 1, 10, 11 / F / 1, 10, 11) (CONFIDENCE 25%)

 

Race 2: Next is THE Vein Plate for the two year olds over 1000m. Tough race, plenty of guesswork and speed map shows the potential for strong tempo, meaning pace/tactics may be crucial here. Once again, don’t have enough confidence in those short in the market so taking smaller plays on three at big odds again. The three in question are ACQUIRE at $14+ (BET365, CENTREBET), CORTESTA at $31+ (CENTREBET) and finally *CYCLONITE* at a big $61+ with both BET365 and CENTREBET. All have shown enough in trials and/or race start, and although each will need to improve here, each importantly look like they might benefit best with the potential for a strong tempo up front. Happy to make *CYCLONITE* a BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day at the big price. Main dangers LEGEND OF CONDOR, SANTOS and SPIN. Very tough start to the day.    

SUGGEST: ACQUIRE (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $14+, CORTESTA (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $31+, *CYCLONITE* (EACH WAY) @ $61+, FIRST FOUR (1, 2, 7 / F / 1, 2, 7 / 3, 5, 11) (CONFIDENCE 20%)

 

Race 3: Next is a Listed event for the three year old fillies over 1400m. Another tough, open, competitive race. Might be the theme of the day. Very slight lean here with WORKDRINKS at $5+ with BET365 who has done very little wrong in career to date (1 x 1st, 2 x 2nd from 3 starts) and is adaptable in terms of going forward or sitting back which is important with the sticky gate. Would love to see her closer to the pace, but hopefully Brown can assess once they jump and make a prompt decision either way. Main dangers SWEET DEAL, AONAIR and FAITH IN HAND.

SUGGEST: WORKDRINKS (EACH WAY) @ $5.50+, FIRST FOUR (3, 4, 8 / F / 3, 4, 8 / 7) (CONFIDENCE 30%)

 

Race 4: Next is another benchmark 80 over 1400m. Two horse race for mine between PUMPKIN PIE at $4.60+ (CROWNBET) and SUNCRAZE at $4.00+ (CENTREBET) and instead of trying to split them I’d simply back them both on WIN only basis’. Prices warrant the play, so that will do me, they look to have a gap on the rest.

SUGGEST: PUMPKIN PIE (WIN) @ $4.60+, SUNCRAZE (WIN) @ $4.00+, FIRST FOUR (F / 8, 11 / 8, 11 / F) (CONFIDENCE 45%)

 

Race 5: Next is a benchmark 95 over the mile (1600m). Good, even group and klooking at a two-pronged play here on two at nice each way prices in **OKLAHOMA GIRL** at $8+ (most operators) and LUBITON at $10+ with CENTREBET. Stable has been patient with **OKLAHOMA GIRL**, hopefully simply waiting for the right race to have her set for a potential trip down to Melbourne for a race like the Matriarch. Should they think she can be competitive there, she should be wining or going damn close in a race like this. At the price, happy to make a BEST VALUE bet of the day. LUBITON is in form, will make own luck and be hard to catch as long as the track is giving on pacers their chance. Main dangers INCINCIBELLA (great chance but no value at $2.30), JAMINZAH and BLACK ON GOLD. Waller has a very strong hand in this one.

SUGGEST: **OKLAHOMA GIRL** (EACH WAY) @ $8+, LUBITON (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $10+, FIRST FOUR (7, 10, 11 / 5, 8 / F / 5, 8) (CONFIDENCE 35%) 

 

Race 6: Last leg of the early quaddie is the open St Leger Stakes over 2600m. Don’t see any reason to jump off the old fella WHO SHOT THEBARMAN who gets in extremely well at the weights here at a tidy $5.50+ with most operators. Has been very good without placing (2 x 4th) this prep and gets in very well here, third up and over suitable distance. Not sure of the rationale regarding Bowman riding LIBRAN, so hoping there is a legitimate reason (Shinn committed for Cup, etc?) why Shinn rides as opposed to Bowman. Main dangers BIG DUKE, LIBRAN and CHOCANTE. Market pretty spot on here.

SUGGEST: WHO SHOT THEBARMAN (EACH WAY) @ $5.50+, FIRST FOUR (boxed 1, 2, 3, 4), (1, 2, 3 / F / 1, 2, 3 / 4) (CONFIDENCE 35%)

 

Race 7: First leg of the quaddie is the Listed Sydney Stakes over 1200m and there looks to be plenty of pace here. Looking at another three pronged play here with runners all at $17 or better. The three in question are KURO at $17+ (BET365), DERRYN at $21+ (CENTREBET) and KAEPERNICK at $23+ with BET365. All proven at this and importantly better grade, all will appreciate a strong tempo up front, all will handle the sting out of the ground should the rain come and that if anything should only further assist those off the pace, coming down the middle of the track. Main danger the obvious with IN HER TIME, ahead of IMPENDING, TAKEDOWN and WASHINGTON HEIGHTS.

SUGGEST: KURO (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $17+, DERRYN (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $21+, KAEPERNICK (WIN / EACH) @ $23+, FIRST FOUR (1, 3, 12 / 5, 8, 9 / F / 5, 8, 9) (CONFIDENCE 25%) 

 

Race 8: And now for the big one. The richest race on turf ANYWHERE IN THWE WORLD!!! Wow. I’m a Victorian, but gee wiz, I have no issues with initiatives like this, which are only good for racing in my opinion. Such a build up, such anticipation, such excitement, now let the best sprinter in the country WIN. As I outlined in the Melbourne summary, **SHE WILL REIGN** was enormous at Moonee Valley on a track that was extremely advantageous to those who were on the rail, especially before the bend. Those off the rail, were simply in inferior ground and she was the only winner of the night to not rail for the majority of the race. I think she’s special and this race will confirm if that’s definitely the case or not, at a better than expected $7+ price with PALMERBET and BET365. At the price, happy to make a BEST VALUE bet of the day. Then, want something on the most underrated sprinter in the land in REDZEL @ $8+ with LUXBET and UNIBET. She is top drawer, and runs times that most simply cannot. The concern is the final 50m at the very top level here. Happy to play around the two in the order stated. Main dangers CHAUTAUQUA (people keep saying she needs sting out, so is a risk, has nobody not read the forecast??) and VEGA MAGIC.  

SUGGEST: **SHE WILL REIGN** (EACH WAY) @ $7+, REDZEL (WIN / EAHC WAY) @ $8+, FIRST FOUR (boxed 1, 2, 3, 10), (1, 2 / 3, 10 / F / 3, 10) (CONFIDENCE 35%) 

 

Race 9: Penultimate event is the Group 3 Craven Plate over 2000m. I obviously rate HAPPY CLAPPER high and have for a long time, but can’t get too excited here at $1.65. Rather put in a one out quaddie leg and/or multies, but nothing crazy standalone. Not overly confident given HAPPY CLAPPER’s ability, but happy to have plays on MCREERY at $15+ (SPORTSBET, UBET) and EMBLEY at $19+ with UBET. Want to rain to come for MCREERY who drops in grade here, but still needs to improve a length or two which I think will happen should the rain arrive as expected. EMBLEY has been good to us in recent times and although up in grade, is fit, in form and makes own luck. Main danger most definitely the best horse in the race in HAPPY CLAPPER.

SUGGEST: MCREERY (EACH WAY) @ $15+, EMBLEY (EACH WAY) @ $19+, FIRST FOUR (roving 1, 6, 9 / F), (F / 1 / F / 6, 9) (CONFIDENCE 30%) 

 

Race 10: Final event to a big ‘history-making’ day is a benchmark 80 over 1000m. Can’t split two here, so going to play both on WIN only basis’ given the odds in the form of LATIN BOY at $7.50+ (BET365) and MACHINEGUN JUBS at $5.50+ with most operators. Bowman, interestingly rides the latter so will have it slightly on top, while LATINBOY aims for 5 on the trot, although is first up here. Throw a blanket over the rest in a tough finish.

SUGGEST: MACHINEGUN JUBS (WIN) @ $5.50+, LATIN BOY (WIN) @ $7.50+, FIRST FOUR (F / 3, 8 / F / 3, 8) (CONFIDENCE 30%) 

 

SUMMARY:

Average odds $16.03+ per suggested runner!

** BEST VALUE **: OKLAHOMA GIRL @ $8+, SHE WILL REIGN @ $7+

*BEST LONGSHOTS*: LAST TRY WINS @ $34+, CYCLONITE @ $61+

#happypunting