SATURDAY, OCTOBER 21, 2017
Racing at CAULFIELD with rain forecast Thursday, but not as much as expected actually arrived. So currently looking at a GOOD (3) surface.
RAIL: +6M (ENTIRE CIRCUIT). We head to CAULFIELD for the end of their big week of the year, for their showcase event, the Caulfield Cup. Rail out +6M after being in the TRUE position last Saturday and Wednesday this week. Especially early, expecting no disadvantage to be on pace/closer to the fence (pace dependant), however that may well change as the day goes on. As always, be sure to keep a close eye on early races for best guide.
Race 1: We start a massive day of racing with the three year old fillies over 1400m. Keen on RIVER JEWEL here at a very juicy $21+ with LUXBET, UBET and BET365. Was better than it looked last time on the tracked I walked at the Valley and was far inferior away from the fence. This has been franked with Invincible Star who finished slightly ahead of RIVER JEWEL) coming out and absolutely destroying them last weekend. If not enough, was only 2.75L from Booker on debut. Super price and happy to make a BEST VALUE bet of the day! Can also take a much more positive position here which will be key to chances. Importantly draws in inside the favourite, hence is one who can/should make things more difficult than they need to be for OUR CROWN MISTRESS. Then, a saving WIN only play on the one to beat OUR CROWN MISTRESS, who is skinny enough at $2.80+ (SPORTSBET) but for good reason. Main dangers JUSTICE GLORY, NAANTALI and COUNTERPLAY
SUGGEST: **RIVER JEWEL** (EACH WAY) @ $21+, OUR CROWN MISTRESS (WIN) @ $2.80+, FIRST FOUR (3, 4, 11 / 6 / F / 2) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 2: Next is the Listed Gothic Stakes for the three year old colts and geldings over 1400m. The same reasoning applies here with the WASSERGEIST on the back of the track and how it was playing at MV on 29 September. Worth noting same applied to Mighty Boss (who won Guineas last week at 100/1), although we went with Holy Snow who flew past the Guineas winner late, hence the obvious longshot…or not…what could have been. Anyways, onto the WASSERGEIST here who also can be ridden more positively here (potentially even lead) and if so can give a great sight at a juicy at $19+ with LUXBET. Then, happy to also have a play on ALMIGHTY at a tidy $13+ with most operators. Well bred colt and I know the white-hot Snowden stable have been trying to carefully place this Exceed and Excel colt to try and maximise value at stud. Wide open race with plenty of legitimate winning chances.
SUGGEST: WASSERGEIST (EACH WAY) @ $19+, ALMIGHTY (EACH WAY) @ $13+, FIRST FOUR (F / 6, 9 / F / 6, 9) (CONFIDENCE 30%)
Race 3: Next is the Group 3 Ethereal Stakes for the three year old fillies over 2000m. Despite the terrible gate (currently 19) I just can’t go past **PINOT** at $5+ (BET365, UBET) after what was nothing short of top-class and sensational last time. Looks the Oaks winner for mine (Currently $9+ for your longer term multies) and with any luck here (just needs to find a spot with cover from the gate) will be extremely hard to beat. At the price, despite the gate, happy to make a BEST VALUE bet of the day. Main dangers TEODORA, HIYAAM and ONE MORE HONEY who I really wanted to play, but barrier 1 tells me it would take a Blake Shinn special and she’ll need a tonne of luck buried on the rail midfield or possible worse.
SUGGEST: **PINOT** (EACH WAY) @ $5+, FIRST FOUR (1, 5, 12 / F / 1, 5, 12 / 6) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 4: Next is the Group 3 Ladbrokes Classic for the three year olds over 2000m. Hard race, very competitive, plenty of chances, with pace/tactics and how track is playing all expected key factors here. There doesn’t look to be much pace on paper here and for this reason think CLIFF’S EDGE @ $4.30+ (BET365) can lead, dictate, hopefully pinch a break as they straighten and be tough late as they come and come hard late. Main dangers TANGLED and MAIN STAGE.
SUGGEST: CLIFF’S EDGE (EACH WAY) @ $4.30+, FIRST FOUR (F / 1, 4 / 1, 4 / 2) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 5: Next is the Group 3 Coongy Cup to be run over 2500m. Keen on SAMOVARE at $3.20+ (UBET, BET365, CROWNBET), especially now after the scratching of WHEAL LEISURE who I could’ve made a case for here. SAMOVARE has been flying without winning past two and drops in grade here. Doesn’t look to be much pace on paper, which only bolsters chances. Main dangers KIWIA, ASSIGN, MAURUS and TURNITAROUND.
SUGGEST: SAMOVARE (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $3.20+, FIRST FOUR (1, 2, 4, 10 / 8 / F / 1, 2, 4, 10) (CONFIDENCE 40%)
Race 6: Last leg of the early quaddie is the Group 3 Moonga Stakes over 1400m. Going with the Hayes/Dabernig pair here in the form of GRANDE ROSSO at $5.50+ (BET365) and TASHBEEH at $19+ (LUXBET, SPORTSBET). Both had excuses last time in different races, GRAND ROSSO sat on top of a suicidal tempo up front last time setting it up for one of ours in Santa Ana Lane, hence was entitled to fold late, while TASHBEEH was obviously very unlucky with little/no clear galloping room in the straight. Should have been right in the finish with any luck. Main dangers DANISH TWIST, ECKSTEIN and good ole’ BURNING FRONT.
SUGGEST: GRANDE ROSSO (EACH WAY) @ $5.50+, TASHBEEH (EACH WAY) @ $19+, FIRST FOUR (2, 10, 11 / 4, 6 / F / 4, 6) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 7: First leg of the main quaddie is the Group 2 Caulfield Sprint over 1000m and one things for sure, there looks to be plenty of pace on paper here, with SUPER TOO only knowing one way, and the likes of SNITTY KITTY expected to be not far behind. Good, competitive race, but going with the three year old here to knock off the older horses in the form of PROPERTY at $5+ with UNIBET. Has won for us in the past and is simply yet to run a bad race, so let’s hope the gelding doesn’t start here. Form behind the best 2YO last season (Catchy, actually beat Pariah) and dungeon followers were aboard when bolting in at Randwick before a spell. Throw a blanket over the rest in a race where everyone runner has some claims.
SUGGEST: PROPERTY (EACH WAY) @ $5+ (CONFIDENCE 30%)
Race 8: And now for the feature, the Group 1 BMW Caulfield Cup over 2400m. Smallest field in a long time, but as always a competitive handicap over the mile and a half. Very interesting to hear the tactics set to be deployed by Lloyd Williams with SIR ISAAC NEWTON to lead by 2-3L and for stablemate and hot favourite JOHANNES VERMEER to settle in the first four. Very interesting and to be honest not what I would want to be hearing if I’ve invested in either of the pair, especially the now short favourite. Shocked by the disinterest in HUMIDOR now out to as much as $9+ with TOPBETTA. The superstar Winx gave the gelding windburn last time (but kept coming late, despite hanging in) and has the unique bubble cheeker on the near side to hopefully assist with that issue. Weir knows what he’s doing. Run prior was sensational and as long as confidence hasn’t been destroyed by Winx can most definitely win another group 1. Also drops 3kg from WFA. Then want plays on two others at similar prices in the form of INFERENCE at $17+ (POINTSBET) and *LORD FANDANGO* at $21+ with most operators. INFERENCE has been running well without luck, gets blinkers on here for target event and should get pace up front to suit. While *LORD FANDANGO* was very good last time in decent race, gets in with the featherweight of 50kg and I really rate the Archie Alexander stable at the moment. For mine, the up and coming stable who could be in a position to start making a statement this Spring. Could it be here? At the price, happy to make a BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day. Main dangers JOHANNES VERMEER, BONNEVAL, HARLEM, VENTURA STORM and AMELIE’S STAR. Might not be the biggest field ever, might not be the best field ever, but as always, great race.
SUGGEST: HUMIDOR (EACH WAY - PRIMARY) @ $8.50, INFERENCE (EACH WAY – SECONDARY) @ $17+, *LORD FANDANGO* (EACH WAY – SECONDARY) @ $21+, FIRST FOUR (3, 7, 11, 15, 16 / 1, 9, 17 / 3, 7, 11, 15, 16 / 1, 9, 17), (3, 7, 11, 15, 16 / 3, 7, 11, 15, 16 / 3, 7, 11, 15, 16 / 1, 9, 17) (CONFIDENCE 30%)
Race 9: Penultimate event is the Group 2 Tristarc Stakes for the mares over 1400m. Tough race, as always with these Group mares’ events. Was hoping for better, but although the fact the bookies haven’t missed FOX PLAY at $4.80+ (most operators), it’s for a reason and it’s because form for this mare is very good against the very best in Winx and Happy Clapper in recent times. How quickly we can sometimes forget that this girl almost killed Bambi three starts back “almost” beating superstar Winx, after the superstar had missed the start badly. 0.2L defeat to Winx reads pretty damn good in anyone’s books regardless of the situation. Then, also want something on *SWAMPLAND* at a juicy $19+ (UBET, SPORTSBET) who simply doesn’t know how to run a bad race. This is a step up in grade, but deserves her chance and no reason to think she can’t go close with even luck in running. At the price, happy to make a BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day. Main danger SILENT SEDITION, PETITION and NOW OR LATER, then throw a collective blanket over the rest in a race which does run very deep.
SUGGEST: FOX PLAY (EACH WAY - PRIMARY) @ $4.80+, *SWAMPLAND* (EACH WAY - SECONDARY) @ $19+, FIRST FOUR (3, 8, 17 / 1, 16 / F / 1, 16) (CONFIDENCE 30%)
RACE 10: We finish another big day on the Australian racing calendar with the Listed Alinghi Stakes for the fillies and mares over 1100m. NIETA is the obvious and will be hard to beat, but just can’t get overly enthused about the very short $2.20 with most operators. Down the Melbourne, different way of going, first time at Caulfield (which has brought many unstuck in the past), hence although on form should ‘just win’ just treading carefully. An option for multies and maybe even a one out leg in the quaddie with wider legs required earlier. Instead, giving FUHRYK @ $4.80+ (most operators) one last chance here. This mare was very good to us in the past, however patience is wearing thin after a couple of misses this prep, despite having excuses at both. Either hasn’t come back as well as a 4YO or has had legitimate excuses and with a bit of luck we’ll see her best again. Taking on trust ‘somewhat’. Main danger NIETA, ahead of CONCHITA and CONCEALER.
SUGGEST: FUHRYK (EACH WAY) @ $4.80+, FIRST FOUR (3 / F / 6, 8 / 1), (F / 3, 6, 8 / 3, 6, 8 / 1), (3 / 1 / F / 6, 8) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Average odds $10.81+ per suggested runner!
** BEST VALUE **: RIVER JEWEL @ $21+, PINOT @ $5+
*BEST LONGSHOTS*: LORD FANDANGO @ $21+, SWAMPLAND @ $19+