28 October 2017 (Group 1 Cox Plate racing at Moonee Valley)

PUNTING DUNGEON

WWW.PUNTINGDUNGEON.COM.AU

MOONEE VALLEY

SATURDAY, OCTOBER 28, 2017

 

Racing at MOONEE VALLEY with the weather set to be important in terms of how things may pan out for the day. A chance of thunderstorms (although forecast of only 1-5mm of rain), however arguably more importantly winds predicted to start northerly, shift westerly and potentially finish south easterly which is important as that would mean a head wind in the straight. Currently looking at a GOOD (4) surface.

RAIL: TRUE (ENTIRE CIRCUIT). We head to MOONEE VALLEY with staying in the TRUE position, after being in the same spot last night. You’d generally expect them to start getting away from the fence given the amount of racing, especially as the day progresses, and especially if the rain does come in the morning. Hoping for an even track (pace dependant), but with some rain forecast be sure to keep a close eye on early races for best guide.

 

Race 1: We start with the two year olds in the Inglis Banner over 1000m and obviously a tough start with only 3 of the 10 having seen a race track to date. David Hayes has his two year olds low flying and don’t see any reason to jump off here. Happy to play both here on WIN only basis’ in the form of blue-blood JAWWAAL @ $6.50+
(most operators) - bred in the purple - $800,000 purchase and GRAND CHALLENGE @ $8.50+ (most operators) who had excuses on debut, and apparently the blinkers didn’t suit. Will be better for the race day experience, regardless. Main dangers SEABROOK, SETSUNA, FAROE and BIONICS.

SUGGEST: JAWWAAL (WIN) @ $6.50+, GRAND CHALLENGE (EACH WAY) @ $10+, FIRST FOUR (4, 6, 7, 10 / 1, 5 / 4, 6, 7, 10 / F), (F / 4, 6, 7, 10 / 4, 6, 7, 10 / 1, 5) (CONFIDENCE 30%)

 

Race 2: Next is a handicap over the short 955m and I loved the way **ROCK ‘N’ GOLD** gobbled them up once clear at Cranbourne and think should get race run to suit similarly here to hopefully finish over the top of them at $7.50+ with CENTREBET. Primary each way play and happy to make a BEST VALUE bet of the day. Then, a longshot play at one at cricket score odds in *DESTINY’S REWARD* at $126+ with BET365 and LUXBET. Been freshened for this after sub-par run last time and run prior to that was pretty good for a race like this, especially at 125/1. From 1 will need luck arguably back and on the fence, but when on a longshot at these odds, that isn’t necessarily a bad thing as you normally need a bit of luck on your side. At the price, happy to make a BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day. Throw a blanket over the rest.

SUGGEST: **ROCK ‘N’ GOLD** (EACH WAY - PRIMARY) @ $7.50+, *DESTINY’S REWARD* (EACH WAY – SECONDARY) @ $126+, FIRST FOUR (F / 4 / F / 10) (CONFIDENCE 35%)

 

Race 3: Next is a Group 3 SWP (Set weights and penalties) event for the three year olds over 1200m. Going to keep this short and sweet, despite the competitive nature of the race, and run with one we have always had a very high opinion of in SINGLE BULLET at $5.50+ with BET365. Runner up past two to the talented Viridine and when our best of the day two back, was unlucky, not seeing daylight until it was all over before finishing strongly. Main danger TREKKING who has been very competitive in the top two year old events (with the exception of the Golden Slipper, where many struggled on the heavy 10, and also happened to jump from barrier 15 of 16. Plenty of other chances, but happy to play around the two only who I think might have a class gap on the rest, time will tell.

SUGGEST: SINGLE BULLET (EACH WAY) @ $5.50+, FIRST FOUR (F / 4 / F / 1), (4 / F / F / 1) (CONFIDENCE 35%)

 

Race 4: Next is the Listed Crockett Stakes for the three year old fillies over 1200m and another competitive affair. Slight lean here towards **SANADAAT** at $6+ (most operators) who has been freshened up to return to this shorter trip which I think suits much better. Two started back wasn’t far behind Shoals who is top drawer, over this track/distance. Should get gun run from barrier 4 and have little excuses. Great each way price and happy to make a BEST VALUE bet of the day. Longer shot play on BLONDIE here at a juicy $17+ (most operators), ties in very well through that Shoals race I just mentioned (she was actually even closer in 2nd), but the concern no freshen up after heading to the mile and now dropping to 1200m. Still the price on weights and measures is worth a play despite the obvious query. Main dangers DEMERARA (going well but rock bottom odds) and JORDA.    

SUGGEST: **SANADAAT** (EACH WAY - PRIMARY) @ $6+, BLONDIE (EACH WAY – SECONDARY) @ $17+, FIRST FOUR (2, 8 / F / 2, 8 / 6, 7) (CONFIDENCE 35%)

 

Race 5: Next is the Group 3 Powerflo Solution Stakes for the mares over the mile (1600m) and now for the third of four asterisks from Breakfast with the Best which caught my eye, (First two were History Repeats and Hey Doc Friday night…paying dividends!!!), this time in the form of SAVAPINSKY at a tidy $10+ with most operators. Worked super, but more importantly is in good form, honest behind the very good Dixie Blossoms last time at Randwick, prior to that winning 3 of past 4. Probably needs a career best to win here, but looks on the upward spiral and hopefully ready to do just that. Then, assuming they are making ground by now, something the WIN on OREGON’S DAY at $4.40+ with BET365. Was ridden too close last time, they need to be patient and expecting track to be given those off the pace their chance by now, assuming some rain has come. Main danger hot fave INVINCIBELLA (will need some luck from barrier 1). That’ll do.   

SUGGEST: SAVAPINSKY (EACH WAY) @ $10+, OREGON’S DAY (WIN) @ $4.40+, FIRST FOUR (F / 5, 6 / 5, 6 / 8), (5 / F / 6, 8 / 6, 8) (CONFIDENCE 35%) 

 

Race 6: Next is the Group 2 Moonee Valley Gold Cup over 2500m and simply can’t go past BIG DUKE @ $2.20+ (most operators) as he heads to the Melbourne Cup. Simply flying, would’ve been a target race from early on and should be hard to beat. Happy to play on a WIN only basis. Many would know I’m a huge LIBRAN fan and think the gelding is ready to run a huge race soon (if they can find the right race) but I didn’t like what I saw Tuesday with LIBRAN not looking comfortable at all around the tight Moonee Valley circuit. As a result, can’t have today on that reason alone but I’m keen to back soon on a bigger track. Main danger most definitely AUVRAY who has found a leg in new stable and has legitimate claims to beating the top pick/fave after not being too far behind him last time out. Probably keep it to two in the last leg of your early quaddie.

SUGGEST: BIG DUKE (WIN) @ $2.20+, FIRST FOUR (3 / 1 / F / F) (CONFIDENCE 55%)

 

Race 7: Next is a Group 2 3YO fillies classic to be run over the mile (1600m). Tough race, plenty of chances, and made tougher by the fact there doesn’t look to be much pace on paper, and the uncertainty as to how the track will be playing by race 7. Can only assume this evens things out but be sure to keep a close eye on how track is playing throughout. As much as there are several at single figure process who look well placed here, given the uncertainty surrounding the race given the above, going to dabble at a couple at double figure prices who look overs right now. The two in question are TOUCH OF MINK at $14+ (BET365) and NOTHIN’ ON ME at $15+ price with UBET, BET365 and CENTREBET. TOUCH OF MINK is still a maiden but has been knocking on the door in decent enough races in Sydney. Deserves crack here with gun hoop Blake Shinn aboard. NOTHIN’ ON ME won well at Pakenham after disappointing Australian debut prior and did run in a Group 1 in NZ only three starts back. Somewhat speculative but like the price and happy to play that way. Main dangers PAGEANTRY (have been on this prep at longer prices, so obviously like but value not so good day, but arguably for a reason?), GLAM GURU, MINTHA and SPEEDWAY. Deep race, doesn’t end there.

SUGGEST: TOUCH OF MINK (EACH WAY) @ $14+, NOTHIN’ ON ME (EACH WAY) @ $15+, FIRST FOUR (3, 4, 5, 6 / F / 3, 4, 5, 6 / 7, 8) (CONFIDENCE 30%) 

 

Race 8: Next is the Group 2 Crystal Mile, over you guess it 1600m, always an exciting race leading up to the big one. Another tough, very competitive race with track pattern by this stage very important. JUNGLE EDGE out takes some pace out of the race, but they should run along at a decent tempo with the likes of BURNING FRONT, RELIGIFY and even IT’S SOMEWHAT pushing forward from gate 1. Then we seem to have a bunch who like to settle at the rear, hence looking for one to drop just behind the leaders, hopefully follow the right one into the straight and given the chance of wind coming into play later, wait for the right moment to peel out and hopefully gobble them up and hold off those flying from the back. As a result, have landed on SOUND PROPOSITION at $6.50+ with BET365. Drops in grade from G1 Epsom when not disgraced and looks set to hopefully be in the right place at the right time here from barrier 4. Main dangers IT’S SOMEWHAT, WYNDSPELLE, LUCKY HUSSLER and PETROLOGY.

SUGGEST: SOUND PROPOSITION (EACH WAY) @ $6.50+, FIRST FOUR (1, 2, 6, 10 / F / 1, 2, 6, 10 / 8) (CONFIDENCE 35%) 

 

Race 9: And now for the big one, where the queen of the turf and the best I’ve personally ever seen WINX goes for a third successive Cox Plate (2040m), the weight for age championship of Australasia and known to many as the greatest two minutes in sport. She happens to be the fourth track worked from Tuesday morning who secured the ‘triple tick’ but safe to say there’s a fair bit more weight in the other three, most notably Hey Doc! She should be winning and winning comfortably, her Turnbull run was phenomenal where she broke the hearts of very good race horses such as HUMIDOR and where’ll all lucky to witness her every time she races. I know someone who has an absolute stack riding on her on the back of several multies feeding into this day throughout the past 12 months so good luck to all involved there. There’s going to be one hell of a party going on, that’s for sure, assuming she just gets to the barriers in one piece and then more importantly to that finish line. From a betting perspective, there are markets with WINX out, so leaving her aside, I’d be looking at such options. And there’s one that jumps out the most here and that’s most definitely *SEABURGE* at 100/1 in the race itself, however $31+ in the WINX out market, which looks a great each way price and at the odds, will actually make a BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day. Effectively means, assuming WINX wins, a SEABURGE 2nd = $31 winner, or if he runs 3rd or 4th gives us the place dividend. Had HAPPY CLAPPER drawn a gate (jumps from 8 from 8) I’d have been very keen in terms of running second, but given the smaller field might play regardless, should be sufficient time for Oliver to find cover and the barrier might simply allow us to secure a better price. As a result, might play the exacta there. Actually a good battle away from WINX, so hopefully we get the chance to watch the champ do her thing, while also making some coin behind her. Regardless of whether you have a bet or not, be sure to crack open a beer/wine/soft drink and be in front of the TV at 5pm.   

SUGGEST: *SEABURGE* (EACH WAY – WINX OUT MARKET) @ $31+, EXACTA (WINX / HAPPY CLAPPER) (CONFIDENCE 30%) 

 

Race 10: Final event is the Group 2 Vase run over 2040m also. I’m a big fan of CLIFF’S EDGE, we’ve obviously been on in recent times (including last start dominant victory), however my query is how the track will be for leaders, especially if the wind swings as forecast. Simply put, if leaders are still getting their chance by race 10 and there’s no notable wind in their face down the straight, then CLIFF’S EDGE will be terribly hard to beat here at $2.90+ with most operators. However, I’m currently predicting that might not be the case, and as a result, am leaning into the camp of ALOISIA instead at $2.70+ with NEDS. Primary WIN only play assuming the above, if not flip to CLIFF’S EDGE instead**. Both absolutely low flying. Also, want something on SALSAMORE at $9.50+ with CROWNBET and SPORTSBET. Has been super without winning recently and looks ready to step back into the winner’s stalls. Have a longer term play to WIN the Derby, throw in your longer term multies. Did run 0.75L 2nd behind ALOISIA final run last prep, so most definitely has the ability. Just want the three max in your quaddies and multiples.

SUGGEST: ALOISIA** (WIN) @ $2.70+, SALSAMORE (EACH WAY) @ $9.50+, FIRST FOUR (roving 1, 3, 9 / F) (CONFIDENCE 40%) 

 

SUMMARY:

Average odds $17.11+ per suggested runner!

** BEST VALUE **: ROCK ‘N’ GOLD @ $7.50+, SANADAAT @ $6+,

*BEST LONGSHOTS*: DESTINY’S REWARD @ $126+, SEABURGE (WINX OUT MARKET) @ $31+

#happypunting