SATURDAY, OCTOBER 7, 2016
Racing at ROYAL RANDWICK with relatively fine weather forecast (slight 20% chance of a shower), penetrometer reading 4.96, so looking at GOOD (3) surface.
RAIL: +3M (ENTIRE CIRCUIT). We head to RANDWICK with the rail out +3M. Hoping and expecting an even track, pace dependant. In the past you’d say you would want to be leading/on rail here, but Sydney hasn’t necessarily played that way in recent times, so expecting and hoping for an even surface for all. Be sure to keep a close eye on the track and how it’s playing in the early races for best guide, especially given recent uncertainty over how the track will play.
Race 1: We start with a benchmark 78 for the three year olds over 1400m. Like SPARKY LAD here at $5.50+ with CENTREBET, who should get a great run in transit, should be fitter for first up win, Avdulla rides, and as a result should be hard to beat.Many others with legitimate claims, so not a foregone conclusion, but happy to be in his corner to start the day.
SUGGEST: SPARKY LAD (EACH WAY) @ $5.50+ (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 2: Next is a benchmark 90 over 2000m and unfortunately a race with only three runners in the end and all happen to be Waller runners. We were very happy to get the chocolates with ALWARD last time as our best of the day, but we must admit it took a very smart Bowman ride which made things tougher than it needed to be for UP ‘N’ ROLLING. In a three horse field harder to do that, and importantly gets a 1.5kg swing in the weights which combined should be enough to turn the tables here. Hence, primary WIN only play on UP ‘N’ ROLLING, to beat ALWARD in 2nd, with VELADERO 3rd.
SUGGEST: UP ‘N’ ROLLING (WIN) @ $1.70+, TRIFECTA (4 / 2 / 3) (CONFIDENCE 65%)
Race 3: Benchmark 85 over the mile (1600m) and like **HOGMANAY** here at $5.50+ with most operators, to hopefully bring up an early winning double for that man, Chris Waller. Was good last time, gets very handy 2kg claim, should get a great run from the good gate and be strong tough late, which he’ll need to be with some handy types here. At the price, happy to make a BEST VALUE bet of the day. Main danger INTERLOCUTER who we’re very happy was unlucky in losing last time on protest, given we were all on Wayanka that day as our best longshot at a big price. Take those, they don’t happen often.
SUGGEST: **HOGMANAY** (EACH WAY) @ $5.50+, FIRST FOUR (F / 3 / F / 1) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 4: Class 3 TAB Highway to also be run over the mile (1600m). CASCATA ROSSA (the Italians will be cheering) should be winning this on past and recent form, so happy to play on a WIN only basis at the $2.50+ price with UBET and UNIBET. Ticks all the boxes, drawn to get a great run, ran fast time last time and last prep won well over 1800m, hence there shouldn’t be any concerns with the jump up to the mile from 1400m. Very hard to beat. Then, a secondary play on *CONFIDENTIAL* at $26+ (BET365) who at least brings winning form to town and if nothing else looks over the odds in comparison to opposition here. At the price, happy to make a BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day. And after the claim gets in with a featherweight of 51.5kg. Knockout hope.
SUGGEST: CASCATA ROSSA (WIN - PRIMARY) @ $2.50+, *CONFIDENTIAL* (EACH WAY – SECONDARY) @ $26+, FIRST FOUR (F / 4 / F / 11) (CONFIDENCE 55%)
Race 5: Last leg of the early quaddie, is an open handicap over 1400m.Tough race, predominately due to many here returning from breaks, hence a bit of guesswork in terms of fitness levels and how wound up they are for first up cracks. Going to run with a two pronged play here, firstly SIR PLUSH on a primary WIN only basis at $3.60+ with most operators who should be allowed to bowl along, but they don’t want to get into any speed battles up front. Key here is the low weight compared with many others here and with 53.5kg should hopefully be able to be strong late and hold them off. Also want something each way on SHILLELAGH at $10+ with SPORTSBET and BET365. Query is how wound up first up, but word from the stable is working well enough to produce something first up, so at the price happy to play.
SUGGEST: SIR PLUSH (WIN) @ $3.60+, SHILLELAGH (EACH WAY) @ $10+, FIRST FOUR (F / 6, 9 / F / 6, 9) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 6: First leg of the quaddie is the Group 2 Roman Consul for the three year olds over 1200m. We were keen on SINGLE BULLET last time, when unlucky in 2nd at a nice price and don’t see any reason to jump off here at $3.90+ with LUXBET. Drops 2kg, should appreciate the extra distance, and just rate this colt’s ability and have since day 1. Has only failed twice, in the biggest two year old races (arguably in the world) both on bottomless heavy tracks that many didn’t handle. Take those two runs out and is 5/5 placings in good grade, but time to notch up win #2. Main danger CHAUFFEUR, ahead of the Godolphin duo. Always a good form race. Note, no third dividend.
SUGGEST: SINGLE BULLET (EACH WAY) @ $3.90+, FIRST FOUR (1 / F / 2 / 3, 5), (1, 3, 5 / 1, 3, 5 / 2 / F) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 7: Next is the feature, the Group 1 Spring Champion Stakes for the three year olds over 2000m, many of these on their way to the Victoria Derby in a month’s time. ACE HIGH is all the rage, and although I concede hard to beat, the calls being made are a bit rich for mine. Bet of the year, moral of the year, etc. Well, personally I think TANGLED wins this, hence I dare say I disagree with the masses, and hopefully that results in a better than expected price. Currently $5.50+ with most operators and at that price happy to make a BEST VALUE bet of the day. Main danger most definitely ACE HIGH who is the one to beat and may we’ll be too good, but I’m not having my house on him like many others.
SUGGEST: **TANGLED** (EACH WAY) @ $5.50+, FIRST FOUR (F / 1 / F / 3), (1 / F / F / 3) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 8: Penultimate event is a Group 3 for the mares, another over the mile (1600m). Going to keep this short and sweet as I can’t go past DIXIE BLOSSOMS here at $3.60+ with CROWNBET. Looks perfectly suited this grade, this distance, these conditions, third up, drawn ideally to be in a good spot (but out of trouble), hard to beat and I’m keen. Main danger DAYSEE DOOM who is low flying, DAWN WALL who can improve after lacklustre run last time and IMPOSING LASS.
SUGGEST: DIXIE BLOSSOMS (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $3.60+, FIRST FOUR (1, 3, 4 / 2 / F / 1, 3, 4), (1, 3, 4 / 1, 3, 4 / F / 2) (CONFIDENCE 55%)
Race 9: We finish with a benchmark 80 over 1200m.Happy to finish the day with REDOUBLE on top here at a tidy $8+ with POINTSBET and CROWNBET. Now in the Bjorn Baker stable (who I rate highly, underrated), has been gelded and with a lot of pace on paper here, importantly has the ability to settle midfield (or worse) but in the right spot from a good gate to hopefully come over the top of them late. Then, want to have something on *ART D’AMOUR* at a juicy $21+ with LUXBET, CENTREBET, and BET365. Will appreciate a strong tempo and as long as you can make ground from off the pace (as we’ll know by race 9) then can cause a boil-over to finish the quaddie. Happy to make a BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day to finish things off. Main dangers PIRACY, CALABASAS and FIRSTHAND.
SUGGEST: REDOUBLE (EACH WAY - PRIMARY) @ $8+, *ART D’AMOUR* (EACH WAY – SECONDARY) @ $21+, FIRST FOUR (4, 10, 11 / F / 4, 10, 11 / 12, 14) (CONFIDENCE 30%)
Average odds $8.07+ per suggested runner!
** BEST VALUE **: HOGMANAY @ $5.50+, TANGLED @ $5.50+
*BEST LONGSHOTS*: CONFIDENTIAL @ $26+, ART D’AMOUR @ $21+