SATURDAY, NOVEMBER 11, 2017
Racing at ROSEHILL GARDENS with fine weather forecast, penetrometer 4.6 hence currently looking at a GOOD (3) surface once again.
RAIL: +3M (ENTIRE CIRCUIT). We head to ROSEHILL with rail out +3M. You’d normally expect no disadvantage to be on pace as a result, but tracks in Sydney have been giving those off their chance of late, so hopefully simply an even track. As always, but be sure to keep a close eye on early races for best guide.
Race 1: We start with the two year olds over 1100m. Sticking with the Waller two year olds as I’ve said a few times as I think he has really focused on removing the “can’t train two year olds’ tag. MADAM ROUGE debuts here at $6+ (most operators) after winning a trial, can lead from barrier 3, which might suit here given conditions and rail position. Throw a blanket over the rest.
SUGGEST: MADAM ROUGE (EACH WAY) @ $6+, RUNNING DOUBLE (MADAM ROUGE / UNFORGOTTEN) (CONFIDENCE 30%)
Race 2: Next is a benchmark 72 for the three year olds over 1500m. UNFORGOTTEN looks a very good filly from what we’ve seen to date and won accordingly last week. Rises to 59kg here and as much as the temptation is to launch, 59kg against the males at $1.70 isn’t the sort of recipe I’m usually after. Leave for multi legs and even a one out early quaddie leg. Also note the running double from the above. Instead, prefer a smaller play on *THE MIGHTY FED* at $19+ with BET365. Best is good enough here, although has a habit of ripping out a sub-par one semi-regularly. At the price, happy to make a BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day. In saying that $17+ is a good price to take on a runner more than capable.
SUGGEST: *THE MIGHTY FED* (EACH WAY) @ $19+, RUNNING DOUBLE (UNFORGOTTEN / LYCURGUS), FIRST FOUR (2 / F / F / 1) (CONFIDENCE 25%)
Race 3: Next is a benchmark 85 over 2400m. Like **LYCURGUS** here at $3.50 (LUXBET, CENTREBET). Rare Danny O’Brien heads up north and the form around Sin To Win, Wheal Leisure (like in Melbourne today), Hardham (ran in a Cox Plate) is good enough for this. Only 54.5kg really like here. Happy to make a BEST VALUE bet of the day. Note, no third dividend.
SUGGEST: **LYCURGUS** (EACH WAY) @ $3.50+ (CONFIDENCE 45%)
Race 4: Next is a benchmark 75 over 1100m. Always had an opinion of *WORLD OF HOPE* in this sort of grade, so happy to play here at $17+ (CENTREBET). Fresh run was very good for a race like this and looks over the odds. At the price, happy to make a BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day. In saying that BON AMIS should be very hard to beat here, especially given there is no pace on paper and should be able to dictate and get own way out in front. Hence, a WIN only play there, despite the short $1.65+ price.
SUGGEST: *WORLD OF HOPE* (EACH WAY) @ $17+, BON AMIS (WIN) @ $1.65+, FIRST FOUR (1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 8 / 6 / 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 8 / 7) (CONFIDENCE 65%)
Race 5: Next is a benchmark 83 over 1800m. Only 6 runners but ALL $8 or less, hence heavily in the market. Ever so slight lean to INTUERI at $4+ with CROWNBET, LUXBET and TOPBETTA. Throw a blanket over the rest. Note, no third dividend.
SUGGEST: INTUERI (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $4+ (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 6: First leg of the quaddie is the Class 3 1400m TAB Highway over 1400m. Not keen on the race at all, but happy to play a couple at big prices as a result. JAR OF HEARTS at $21+ (LUXBET) and TIGER BY THE TALE at $21+ also with CENTREBET, BET365 and LUXBET. Both raced well enough last time to be a chance here. Main dangers ISLA TRISTANA, HIGHWAY SIXTYSIX and ROSEITO.
SUGGEST: JAR OF HEARTS (EACH WAY) @ $21+, TIGER OF THE TALE (EACH WAY) @ $21+, FIRST FOUR (8, 9, 13 / F / 8, 9, 13 / 3, 7) (CONFIDENCE 25%)
Race 7: Next is a benchmark 83 over 1500m. Happy to play **DAGNY** here at $5.50+ with BET365. Hopefully the two favourites test each other out in front, setting it up for DAGNY to round them up late. Gets swing in the weights and ready to fire. Happy to make a BEST VALUE bet of the day. Main dangers most definitely STONEBROOK and JUST DREAMING. Note, no third dividend.
SUGGEST: **DAGNY** (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $5.50+, FIRST FOUR (4, 5 / F / 6 / F) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 8: Penultimate event is a benchmark 86 and once again not a great deal of pace on paper, hence means ZONK should prove very hard to beat at $2.90+ with LADBROKES, BOOKMAKERS.COM.AU and BETSTAR. Form is right and should get run trace to suit. Primary play, ahead of OVERSTEP who looks over the odds at $20+ with CENTREBET. Hoping to see some monetary support, but is proven at this level and just needs to be wound up enough to fire after fresh enough here. Main danger IN TIMES OF WAR, happy to leave things there.
SUGGEST: ZONK (EACH WAY - PRIMARY) @ $2.90, OVERSTEP (EACH WAY - SECONDARY) @ $20+, FIRST FOUR (3 / 9 / F / 6), (F / 3, 9 / 3, 9 / 6) (CONFIDENCE 40%)
Race 9: And we finish with a benchmark 80 over 1300m and have DREAMFORCE on top here first up at $3.70+ with CROWNBET and SPORTSBET. Excellent first up record with 2 wins and never unplaced from 4 first up runs, and looks ready to fire here fresh. Primary play ahead of BARTHELONA at $13+ with BET365. Looks well above average in early stages before dropping of this calendar year. Shown enough in recent times to say might be re-finding form and most importantly confidence. They’ve obviously travelled a long way from Melbourne for this. Main dangers REDOUBLE, KING DARCI and INVICTA.
SUGGEST: DREAMFORCE (WIN / EACH WAY - PRIMARY) @ $3.70+, BARTHELONA (EACH WAY – SECONDARY) @ $13+, FIRST FOUR (1, 6, 8 / 3 / F / 4) (CONFIDENCE 40%)
Average odds $10.63+ per suggested runner!
** BEST VALUE **: LYCURGUS @ $3.50+, DAGNY @ $5.50+
*BEST LONGSHOTS*: THE MIGHTY FED @ $19+, WORLD OF HOPE @ $17+