SATURDAY, NOVEMBER 18, 2017
Racing at SANDOWN HILLSIDE with plenty of wet weather around Melbourne this week, hence currently assuming a SOFT (5) surface.
RAIL: TRUE (ENTIRE CIRCUIT). We head to SANDOWN for their feature day of the year, with the rail as expected in the TRUE position after no racing for over two months. A lot of the earlier rain seemed to miss the track, hence not as wet as it might have been but expecting them to be getting off the fence, especially as the day progresses. As important as ever to keep a close eye on early races for best guide, given we haven’t raced here in a while and the strong rain hitting Melbourne in recent days.
Race 1: We start with a Listed event for the two year olds over 1000m and like OOHOOD here on debut at $3.75+ with BET365. Was interested Oaks Day, but saved for this it seems, trialled well, worked well since and it’s that trusty McEvoy/Currie combination once again. And the money has definitely come in early markets. Main dangers YULONG MONOCEROS (was very good on debut), LONG LEAF (good enough to win on debut) and IRUKANDJI (expensive yearling, monitor betting).
SUGGEST: OOHOOD (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $3.75+, FIRST FOUR (1, 3, 6 / 7 / F / 1, 3, 6) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 2: Next is another Listed event, this time for the three year old fillies over 1400m. Liked SPLIT LIP last time on Oaks Day and ran very well down the straight, and can measure up here over the longer trip at a tidy $9.50+ with most operators. Primary play, ahead of *JUSTICE GLORY* here at a juicy $31+ (UBET) after being a total forgive last time when forced to the rear on a leader dominated track. Can settle anywhere Cory Parish likes from barrier 3 and be right there when the whips are cracking at a juicy price. At the price, happy to make a BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day. Main dangers RIVER JEWEL (been keen last two at juicy prices without luck, capable but has run out of chances at this stage), LUQYAA, LADY OF CREDBILLY and SWORN EVIDENCE.
SUGGEST: SPLIT LIP (EACH WAY - PRIMARY) @ $9.50+, *JUSTICE GLORY* (EACH WAY - SECONDARY) @ $31+, FIRST FOUR (2, 3, 4, 9 / 1, 6 / F / 1, 6), (2, 3, 4, 9 / F / 2, 3, 4, 9 / 1, 6) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 3: Next is the Listed Sandown Cup to be run over 3200m. Good race, with several engaged here that we have had success with in the past, notably GALLIC CHIEFTAIN, FANATIC (won for us last week on Cup Day at 20/1) and SWACADELIC and they are coincidentally the three I have on top here. Small field, but good race and pace/tatics set to be key. Slight lean GHALLIC CHIEFTAIN at $2.30+ (UBET, LUXBET) who is the one unknown at the two mile (3200m) but from what I’ve seen in the past month, looks like a case of the longer, the better. Main dangers most definitely the other two mentioned in FANATIC and SWACADELIC. Note, no third dividend.
SUGGEST: GALLIC CHIEFTAIN (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $2.30+, FIRST FOUR (roving 2, 3, 4 / 1, 6, 7), (3, 4 / 1, 3, 4, 6, 7 / 2 / 1, 3, 4, 6, 7) (CONFIDENCE 40%)
Race 4: Next is the Group 3 Kevin Heffernan Stakes, a WFA (Weight For Age) event over 1300m. Again not a big field, (8 at the moment), but very competitive and many legitimate winning hopes. Slight lean here on JUNGLE EDGE at $9+ (most operators) who will appreciate any sting out of the track (the wetter, the better) but despite what many would say, still goes well on a firmer surface. Happy to play there, alongside BASSETT at $13+ (most operators) who has had little luck in recent times and is due for a change of luck here. Has proven form at this level in the past and looks the one over the odds of the group. Main danger most definitely THRONUM who really has done little wrong to date, with form around some top liners and despite not being well weighted at WFA, looks on the upward spiral to offset that. Happy to leave things there, but most can win.
SUGGEST: JUNGLE EDGE (EACH WAY) @ $9+, BASSETT (EACH WAY) @ $13+, FIRST FOUR (7 / 4, 6 / F / 4, 6), (7 / F / F / 4, 6) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 5: Yet another Group 3 event, this time over 1500m. Tough race, most runners with legitimate winning chances. Slight lean at the odds for LAND OF PLENTY at $6.50+ with most operators. Can confidently say I’ve never backed this horse before, on many occasions thinking he may be a touch overrated and on many occasions under the odds for mine, but in this instance I think $6.50+ is value and is recent form does read extremely well for a race like this. Form around Santa Ana Lane, Redkirk Warrior, Keen Array and race favourite here DOLLAR FOR DOLLAR makes him a good each way play. Then, also want something on DUKE OF BRUNSWICK who looks over the odds at $13+ with BET365. Just missed last week by an absolute pimple and when gets even luck in running, is a most consistent galloper. Go back five starts was well backed in a good Group 3 event when beaten 3.9L by the talented Ability. Main dangers MOSS ‘N’ DALE, HELLOVA STREET and LUCKY HUSSLER. DOLLAR FOR DOLLAR can definitely win but happy to take on at the very short quote.
SUGGEST: LAND OF PLENTY (EACH WAY) @ $6.50+, DUKE OF BRUNSWICK (EACH WAY) @ $13+, FIRST FOUR (1, 2, 3 / 4, 8 / F / 4, 8), (1, 2, 3 / F / 1, 2, 3 / 4, 8) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 6: Final leg of the early quaddie is the Listed Doveton Stakes over 1000m and as long as the rain hits Sandown, then I’m very keen on DERRYN at $9+ with SPORTSBET. Been waiting for a wet track for a while and the rain has evaded, and may again despite plenty in Melbourne this week. Drawn the carpark in lucky 13 of 13 but I’ve had luck with this galloper over the journey and always seems to come up over the odds. Just needs even luck in running (which isn’t a given from 13) to be hard to beat here, especially if the rain arrives. Regardless, has the class on his side to come over the top of them late. Then want secondary plays on two at juicy odds in the form of OLIVIER at $23+ (UBET) and DANCE WITH FONTEIN at $26+ with most operators. OLIVIER has good first up from and has proven form in this grade when going well, while DANCE WITH FONTEIN was super for us on Oaks Day running 4th at 80/1 and snagging us all a slice of a juicy first four - $20 for you 70% of the $1680 dividend. Better suited at the weight scale here. Main danger CRYSTAL DREAMER who we liked at 10/1 as one of our best of the day, was smashed into $5.50 before running 2nd to the hot fave Ball of Muscle who was simply too good, and there are no Ball of Muscle’s here, CONCEALER, GUN CASE and THELBURG. Good, competitive race once again.
SUGGEST: DERRYN (EACH WAY - PRIMARY) @ $9+, OLIVIER (EACH WAY – SECONDARY) @ $23+, DANCE WITH FONTEIN (EACH WAY) @ $26+, FIRST FOUR (2, 3, 6, 10 / F / 2, 3, 6, 10 / 1, 7, 9), (2, 3, 6, 10 / 1, 7, 9 / F / 1, 7, 9), (3 / 1, 2, 6, 7, 9, 10 / 1, 2, 6, 7, 9, 10 / 1, 7, 9) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 7: First leg of the main quaddie is the Group 2 Zipping Classic over 2400m and I will keep this short and simple with the ‘best horse’ in the race ALMANDIN at $2.65+ with most operators. Was my top pick in the Cup and our race was over after 300m when forced wide (where he would stay for the full duration of the race without cover) after being so close to finding a gun spot one off the rail with cover. Thanks G. Boss. Total forgive and as long as that hasn’t busted him (stable intelligent enough to know) then should be winning this. Main and only danger is BIG DUKE who ran the race of his life in the Cup to finish 4th but meets ALMANDIN at level weights here which is the concern. Only two needed (max) in the first leg of your quaddie. Keen!
SUGGEST: ALMANDIN (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $2.65+, EXACTA (BIG DUKE / ALMANDIN) (CONFIDENCE 65%)
Race 8: Group 2 Sandown Guineas for the 3YO (three year olds) over the mile (1600m). **SNITZEPEG** is the one for mine here at a tidy enough $5+ with UBET, LADBROKES, BOOKMAKERS.COM.AU and BETSTAR. Been in very good form this prep and wasn’t far away from the hat trick last time and gets in slightly better at the weights here given recent past success. Primary play and happy to make a BEST VALUE bet of the day. Ahead of secondary plays on I’LL HAVE A BIT at $17+ (most operators) and GIVE at a big $51+ with BET365. I’LL HAVE A BIT has run well in arguably better races than this despite the Group 2 status and form around the likes of SHOALS, BRING ME THE ROSES and BANISH ties the filly in very nicely here against the boys. GIVE had clear excuses last time, and can cause a boil-over if the right breaks come his way. Main dangers BEAU GESTE, ICON OF DUBAI and OCTABELLO.
SUGGEST: **SNITZEPEG** (EACH WAY - PRIMARY) @ $5+, I’LL HAVE A BIT (EACH WAY – SECONDARY) @ $17+, GIVE (EACH WAY – SECONDARY) @ $51+, FIRST FOUR (2, 5, 6 / 1, 7, 11 / F / 1, 7, 11), (2, 5, 6 / F / 2, 5, 6 / 1, 7, 11) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 9: Penultimate event is the Group 3 Eclipse Stakes over 1800m. Will keep this one short and sweet and again run with the ‘best horse’ rule here with **RAW IMPULSE** at $3.80+ with most operators. Unlucky last time and you were just waiting for that ‘return to right fitness’ run and that was most definitely seen last week. Keen and happy to make a BEST VALUE bet of the day. Ahead of main dangers JACQUINOT BAY, KIDMENEVER, PAYROLL and BALF’S CHOICE. Doesn’t end there, very much looks a case of RAW IMPULSE or who knows?
SUGGEST: **RAW IMPULSE** (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $3.80+, FIRST FOUR (1, 3, 8, 10 / 6 / F / 1, 3, 8, 10), (F / 1, 3, 8, 10 / 6 / 1, 3, 8, 10) (CONFIDENCE 55%)
Race 10: And we finish with a Group 3 event for the mares to be run over 1500m. At first glance was keen PETITION, but has come up poison odds for mine at $2.80 with most operators! As a result, happy to play through multies and a one out final quaddie leg, but not a primary standalone investment. Instead, think better value lies with OREGON’S DAY at $7.50+ with SPORTSBET, PALMERBET and CROWNBET. Has had little luck this prep and we have seen what she can do when she does get luck on her side. Barrier draw of 8 is ideal for mine to be away from the fence with cover, and every chance that just might be the ideal place to be by race 10. Primary play ahead of SEBRING DREAM at $21+ (most operators) and *FILLE CHAMPAGNE* at a juicy $41+ with BET365. SEBRING DREAM is proven at this level and has been freshened for this which looks well within her grasp at a nice price. *FILLE CHAMPAGNE* has been a little unlucky is also capable and looks to be well over the odds here given form doesn’t read great on face value. At the price happy to make a BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day. Main danger most definitely PETITION, ahead of INVINCIBELLA and RED IS THE ROSE.
SUGGEST: OREGON’S DAY (EACH WAY) @ $8+, SEBRING DREAM (EACH WAY – SECONDARY) @ $21+, *FILLE CHAMPAGNE* (EACH WAY - SECONDARY) @ $41+, FIRST FOUR (5, 8, 12 / 2 / F / 6, 11), (8 / F / 2, 5, 6, 11, 12 / 2, 6, 11) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Average odds $19.55+ per suggested runner!
** BEST VALUE **: SNITZEPEG @ $5+, RAW IMPULSE @ $3.80+
*BEST LONGSHOTS*: JUSTICE GLORY @ $31+, FILLE CHAMPAGNE @ $41+