SATURDAY, NOVEMBER 18, 2017
Racing at ROSEHILL GARDENS with the chance of showers. Going to currently assume a GOOD (4) surface, although morning penetrometer reading is 4.58, hence currently a GOOD (3).
RAIL: +6M (ENTIRE CIRCUIT). We head to ROSEHILL with rail out +6M, after being out +3M last week. You’d normally expect no disadvantage to be on pace given the Friday night rating of a GOOD (3) surface, however given the forecast of showers, as always, but be sure to keep a close eye on early races for best guide.
Race 1: We start with a benchmark 74 for the three year olds over 1200m and a tough start despite the small field, illustrated by the market with all six runners at 9/1 or less. Slight lean SPARKY LAD at $5.50+ (most operators) after I was terribly keen on Derby Day (when scratched), and although not as keen here, still have on top. Progressing nicely through the ranks quickly with only non-placing run from 4 starts on debut. Throw a serviette over the rest. Note, no third dividend.
SUGGEST: SPARKY LAD (EACH WAY) @ $5.50+ (CONFIDENCE 30%)
Race 2: Next is a benchmark 82 for the fillies and mares over 1400m, although only mares running here. Despite the 0 placings from 3 first up runs, hard to go past SEDANZER here at $4+ with BET365. Importantly won a trial leading in to this, so hopefully about to change that statistic. Form around Egg Tart, Kenedna, Interlocuter and Up ‘n’ rolling last prep (actually beat the latter two) which reads extremely well for a race like this. Throw a blanket over many others, once again as the market suggests with six of the 11 runners at single figure odds.
SUGGEST: SEDANZER (EACH WAY) @ $4+ (CONFIDENCE 40%)
Race 3: Next is a benchmark 85 over 2000m and don’t see any reason to jump off CARZOFF here at $5+ with most operators. We were keen last time (Derby Day) as a best of the day and we got the chocolates accordingly and don’t see why he can’t again now that Waller has injected the confidence back into him. Main dangers IMPAVIDO, COLLATERAL, LORD KINGSLEY and LEAD CHOREOGRAPHER.
SUGGEST: CARZOFF (EACH WAY) @ $5+, FIRST FOUR (1, 4, 6, 8 / F / 1, 4, 6, 8 / 2) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 4: Next is the TAB Highway over 1100m and think SHE KNOWS will be hard to beat here at $3.40+ with most operators. Has the right form for this, has only missed a top two finish once (on debut) and can make it an impressive 3 wins from 5 starts here. Won recent trial to ensure is cherry ripe here. Primary play ahead of VOLPE at $14+ (CENTREBET, UBET) who resumes here and can be ties in nicely through top pick SHE KNOWS who VOLPE met first up last preparation, when beaten 2.8L, however importantly gets 4kg swing in the weights, which is very significant here. Monitor betting as key is fitness levels for this first up run. Throw a blanket over the rest, with little between them, many coming in with decent enough form for this also despite jumps in grade.
SUGGEST: SHE KNOWS (WIN / EACH WAY - PRIMARY) @ $3.40+, VOLPE (EACH WAY – SECONDARY) @ $14+, FIRST FOUR (F / 3 / F / 2) (CONFIDENCE 40%)
Race 5: Next is the November Handicap over 1400m and a good race with pretty much all runs with legitimate claims here, some obviously stronger than others. Loved the way **FIRSTHAND** won last time when looked in trouble late, before launching at the line in real style. Might have come back better after very good run first up also, hence can make the step up against better opposition here at $4.20+ with BET365. Primary play, and happy to make a BEST VALUE bet of the day. Then, want to take one on trust here in RED EXCITEMENT at a tidy $12+ with NEDS, BET365 and UBET. Wasn’t long ago when went terribly close to “killing Bambi” also known as beating Winx, however has done very little since. Like the engagement of gun hoop Blake Shinn aboard, who can hopefully get gelding in the right rhythm up front and similar to what he did with Lucky Hussler on Cox Plate Day (class horse finally finding form with him aboard) can hopefully do similar. Main dangers CABEZA DE VACA, FEDERAL, TESTASHADOW and GAMBLESTOWN.
SUGGEST: **FIRSTHAND** (EACH WAY - PRIMARY) @ $4.20+, RED EXCITEMENT (EACH WAY – SECONDARY) @ $12+, FIRST FOUR (2, 3, 5, 8 / 1, 7 / F / 1, 7) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 6: First leg of the quaddie is the November Topaz over 1900m. Only a five horse field, but similar to several other races on the card, still very competitive with all horses with legitimate winning chances. INTERLOCUTER is the one to beat here, however not interested in the skinny $1.50 price with most operators. Instead will run with two who were right on the heels of the fave / meet better at the weights for recent racing, and in my opinion the price discrepancy is too great here. The two in question are **NEW TIPPERARY** at $6+ (SPORTSBET, UBET) and PRINCE CHERI at $12+ with most operators. Have always had a good opinion of **NEW TIPPERARY** who has taken a little while to get to peak fitness and form, however seems to be there now. Happy to make a BEST VALUE bet of the day. Primary play ahead of PRINCE CHERI who was good last time and has that man Blake Shinn aboard, who given suggestions today, I’m hoping is in for a big day after electing to stay in Sydney as opposed to the big card at Sandown. All including rank outsider EMBLEY can win, given only five runners, could be an ‘F’ to start the main quaddie. Note, no third dividend.
SUGGEST: **NEW TIPPERARY** (EACH WAY - PRIMARY) @ $6+, PRINCE CHERI (EACH WAY - SECONDARY) @ $12+, FIRST FOUR (6, 8 / 1 / 3, 4 / 1, 3, 4, 6, 8), (1, 6, 8 / 3, 4 / 1, 6, 8 / 3, 4) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 7: Next is a benchmark 80 over 1200m and finding it hard to split two here, both right in the market so we’ll simply back both on WIN only basis’. That man Shinn AGAIN aboard BEST GUESS looks hard to beat here from a good alley, good form, gun jock, hard to beat at $3+ with BET365 and CROWNBET. Then, also want a WIN only secondary play on PICK ME UP at a tidy enough $6.50+ with most operators. Main dangers PIPELINE, STAR REFLECTION, CAERLESS CHOICE and DUIBIO all first up from breaks, so important to also monitor betting closer to jump time.
SUGGEST: BEST GUESS (WIN - PRIMARY) @ $3+, PICK ME UP (WIN – SECONDARY) @ $6.50+, FIRST FOUR (2, 3, 9, 11 / 1, 6 / 1, 6 / F) (CONFIDENCE 45%)
Race 8: Penultimate event is a benchmark 80 over 1400m. REDOUBLE keeps getting back strongly since crossing to Bjorn Baker yard and notched up first win for new stable at third attempt last week. On the quick back up so obviously going very well and they are trying to strike while the iron’s hot. Knew we were in trouble last week when the trusty PLUNGE alert (www.plungeapp.com.au/download) went off two minutes before the lucky last when we were on Dreamforce. The one to beat, but rock bottom odds for mine at $2.70 with most here. An option for multies and/or one out quaddie leg. Instead think better value lies with COSMIC ENGINE at $5+ for that man Shinn again, and hopefully a race to race double for the trusty Waller/Shinn combination. Safe to say we are now at the mercy of Blake Shinn having a big day at Rosehill as we seem to be very much in his camp in many instances across the entire card. Happy to be in his camp. He’s a gun. Primary play ahead of one at odds (somewhat speculative) in the form of BALMAIN BOY at a juicy $19+ with most operators. Was disappointing last preparation after showing plenty early days, however many were on softer (and even heavy tracks) and think this boy is better on top of the ground. First up here, hence would love to see some monetary support and also see him in the yard, but at the price happy to play. Main danger most definitely REDOUBLE.
SUGGEST: COSMIC ENGINE (EACH WAY - PRIMARY) @ $5, BALMAIN BOY (EACH WAY - SECONDARY) @ $19+, FIRST FOUR (3 / 2 / F / 8), (F / 3 / 2 / 8) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 9: And we finish with a very decent benchmark 96 over 1100m and there looks to be plenty of pace on paper here. One of my faves (and one who has been very good to Dungeon followers over the journey) is *KUDERO* and very happy to take a piece of the juicy $26+ on offer here with most operators. Was super first up last preparation at a similar price when beating Badajoz and co in a race somewhat similar to this. Big overs, and happy to make a BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day. Oh, and forgot to mention won a trial by 7.25L. Then, think TACTICAL ADVANTAGE looks very well placed here at $4+ (most operators), both in grade, at the weights, on form and with the expected pace up front. Then, a secondary play on *STRATURBO* at a massive $71+ with WILLIAM HILL and CENTREBET. Has had legitimate excuses both runs this preparation and although best is probably behind him, wasn’t that long ago when was very competitive at this level. At the price, happy to also make a BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day to finish things off. Main dangers GLENALL, KINSHACHI, SURE AND FAST and COOLRING (the latter two at big prices). Tempted to take an ‘F’ in a quaddie with pace/tactics/luck in running key here and many at big prices can definitely surprise, especially if those up front pile on the pressure as it looks on paper.
SUGGEST: *KUDERO* (EACH WAY - PRIMARY) @ $26+, TACTICAL ADVANTAGE (WIN / EACH WAY - PRIMARY) @ $4+, *STRATURBO* (EACH WAY – SECONDARY) @ $71+, FIRST FOUR (2, 4, 6, 11 / 9 / F / 2, 3, 5, 6) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Average odds $12.53+ per suggested runner!
** BEST VALUE **: FIRSTHAND @ $4.20+, NEW TIPPERARY @ $6+
*BEST LONGSHOTS*: KUDERO @ $26+, STRATURBO @ $71+