25 November 2017 (Racing at Rosehill Gardens)

PUNTING DUNGEON

WWW.PUNTINGDUNGEON.COM.AU

ROSEHILL GARDENS

SATURDAY, NOVEMBER 25, 2017

                     

Racing at ROSEHILL GARDENS with fine weather forecast. Penetrometer reading 4.6, hence currently looking at a GOOD (3) surface.

RAIL: TRUE (ENTIRE CIRCUIT). We head to ROSEHILL with rail in the TRUE position, after being out +6M last week. Hoping for an even track as you would expect with this rail position, but as always, be sure to monitor early races for best guide.

 

Race 1: We start with the two year olds and some decent trial form complimented with some average ones. At least we have them to use as a guide. In saying that, am leaning with one with race day experience in the form of SECRET LADY @ $6.50+ (SPORTSBET) who debuted very well last week, running 2nd with a gap to third and will make own luck up front tomorrow. Secondary play on ORCEIN at a very juicy $31+ with BET365. Track whisperers saying completed some good quality work (outside of the public trial) earlier in the week, hence very much a speculative play here but at the price and given the stable, happy to play. Main dangers COSIMO and PLAGUE STONE who look the two standouts from the trials. Note, no third dividend.

SUGGEST: SECRET LADY (EACH WAY - PRIMARY) @ $6.50+, ORCEIN (EACH WAY – SECONDARY) @ $31+, FIRST FOUR (1, 4 / F / 3, 7 / F) (CONFIDENCE 30%)

 

Race 2: Next is a benchmark 71 over 1400m and like STAR SENSATION here at $3.80+ with SPORTSBET, LUXBET, BET365. Ultra-consistent type, having won 3 and placed 6 from 7 career starts to date, with only miss in Group 2 Riesling. Has 60.5kg but warranted given career form and does have gun hoop Blake Shinn aboard. The harder they go up front the better, with several key rivals expecting to run on speed.

SUGGEST: STAR SENSATION (EACH WAY) @ $3.80+ (CONFIDENCE 40%)

 

Race 3: Next is a benchmark 87 to be run over 1800m. Good, but tricky race, with many legitimate winning chances. Like a few here, but given odds on offer, need to settle on one, hence will run with **HOGMANAY** again at $7+ (BET365). We were on Oaks Day and was super late (unfortunately once it was all over) behind Mr Garcia who is a hot favourite in the Ballarat Cup today. Happy to play there each way, and make a BEST VALUE bet of the day. Ahead of main dangers GAMBLER’S BLUES, INTUERI (who won for us last start) and MORNINGTON who is the big unknown after a great debut in Australia, despite significant betting drift.

SUGGEST: **HOGMANAY** (EACH WAY) @ $7+, FIRST FOUR (5, 6, 7 / F / 5, 6, 7 / 1) (CONFIDENCE 35%)

 

Race 4: Next is a benchmark 82 for the fillies and mares over 1200m, although only mares accepted here. Good, competitive race where pace/tactics and how track is playing set to be key. Looks to be decent pace up front and personally key is where ANATOLA can get to from the sticky gate (11). Gun hoop to hopefully offset the barrier, however if she can slot in with cover behind the leading pack, should be hard to beat here. We’ll know our fate after 200m you would think. Happy to play on a primary each way basis at $7.50+ with CENTREBET. Then, want something on *OVERSTEP* who looks good overs here at a very generous $21+ with most operators. Needs track playing to give those off the pace their chance, and if that is the case ca n win here at a very good price. Is going well, despite what form may suggest, very good both first and second up, last time no chance given conditions. At the price, happy to make a BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day. Barrier 10 not an issue given racing style. Main dangers ZONK, CONCHITA and BLOWING KISSES.

SUGGEST: ANATOLA (EACH WAY - PRIMARY) @ $7.50+, *OVERSTEP* (EACH WAY – SECONDARY) @ $21+, FIRST FOUR (5, 7, 9 / 3, 4 / F / 3, 4), (5, 7, 9 / F / 5, 7, 9 / 3, 4) (CONFIDENCE 35%)

 

Race 5: Next is the Class 3 TAB Highway over 1500m. Slight lean GITAN here at $5.50+ (CENTREBET) predominately due to the expected run in transit, as opposed to the main danger in REALING who you would expect to get back and be strong late. Last run when led at strong clip was good despite the 5.6L defeat. Winner looks above average and was heavily backed as we were alerted to by www.plungeapp.com.au. Happy to play there on a primary basis, ahead of a secondary play on ONLY CHOICE at a tidy $12+ with most operators. Isn’t the most consistent type, but flops come with excuses, although they are on the verge of mounting to point of concern. The upside is good runs are very good and definitely good enough to win this. Main danger REALING. Happy to leave things there, in the last leg of the early quaddie.  

SUGGEST: GITAN (EACH WAY - PRIMARY) @ $5.50+, ONLY CHOICE (EACH WAY – SECONDARY) @ $12+, FIRST FOUR (1 / 3, 10 / F / 3, 10) (CONFIDENCE 35%) 

 

Race 6: First leg of the quaddie is a benchmark 90 over 1400m. Pace the key here, especially if track is favouring those on pace, and as a result as long as track is even, then looking to play the two who should get a relatively soft lead up front, unless one jockey makes the crazy call to take on the other. Surely not. Primary play JUST DREAMING at $3.20+ (BET365) another heavily backed before winning last start as alerted by www.plungeapp.com.au. Hard to beat, ahead of secondary play STAR FORTUNE who has been strongly backed in early markets (simply went up wrong price, given speed map) and still more than backable at a tidy $18+ with BET365….who it’s worth noting seem to be putting up generous odds of late as I seem to be typing those 6 alphanumeric characters often in recent weeks. Then, also want another secondary play on HANDFAST who looks big overs at $31+ with LADBROKES, BOOKMAKERS.COM.AU, BETSTAR and CENTREBET. Importantly meets ZUMBLINE 4kg better at the weights for a 3.8L first up defeat. ZUMBELINA is $4.40 v $31? Main dangers the Waller duo of ZUMBELINA and WAYANKA.

SUGGEST: JUST DREAMING (WIN / EACH WAY - PRIMARY) @ $3.20+, STAR FORTUNE (EACH WAY - SECONDARY) @ $18+, HANDFAST (EACH WAY – SECONDARY) @ $31+, FIRST FOUR (2, 9 / 4, 6, 12 / F / 4, 6, 12), (F / 6 / 2, 9 / 4, 12) (CONFIDENCE 40%)

 

Race 7: Next is the Country Classic over 2000m and as you can imagine a big field coming from the bush to try and get a slice of the juicy $100k in prizemoney on offer. Banking on Dunn holding the gun hand here with four very good chances in the form of BRONZED VENOM, ZAMEX, MISS DUBOIS and MADAME DE BAN and thinking he might just exert his dominance as the gun country trainer in NSW. There doesn’t look to be a heap of pace on paper and for this reason I’m leaning in the camp of BRONZED VENOM at $7+ with UBET and BET365. Like all four runners, is in good form and hopefully can get a soft run up front and obviously any advantage to be closer to the pace would only enhance chances. Main dangers the other three Dunn runners mentioned above and happy to play around the four only despite obvious competition elsewhere. Would be amazing to snag the first four and I’ll be having something on it just in case.

SUGGEST: BRONZED VENOM (EACH WAY) @ $7+, FIRST FOUR (13, 17, 18 / F / 13, 17, 18 / 12), (boxed 12, 13, 17, 18), TRIFECTA (boxed 12, 13, 17, 18) (CONFIDENCE 30%) 

 

Race 8: Penultimate event is a benchmark 80 over 1400m. BON AMIS rightly will be all the rage, but rock bottom odds for mine at $2.10 with most and instead prefer to play a couple of others at much better prices. Pace/tactics and how track is playing will be key here with decent pace on paper, however several runner are known to settle further back on occasion, hence be interesting what happens here. Am hoping most/all are ridden positively to enhance the chances of our plays here starting with **TEST THE WORLD** first up here at $7+. Over this shorter trip, expect to camp midfield, possibly slightly better and hopefully be too strong late. Is unbeaten first up (2 from 2) and grew a leg last prep winning four and 1 x 2nd from 5 starts. Happy to make a BEST VALUE bet of the day. Also, want a play on one at odds in *MAGICAZ* at $21+ with BET365 who meets the hot fave BON AMIS 3kg better at the weights for only a 1.9L and didn’t have a completely clear passage last time. Can win and at the price will make a BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day. Main dangers BON AMIS, IN TIMES OF WAR and OZARK.

SUGGEST: **TEST THE WORLD** (EACH WAY - PRIMARY) @ $7, *MAGICAZ* (EACH WAY - SECONDARY) @ $21+, FIRST FOUR (2, 5, 9 / 6, 11 / F / 6, 11), (2, 5, 9 / F / 2, 5, 9 / 6, 11) (CONFIDENCE 35%) 

 

Race 9: And we finish with a benchmark 83 over 1500m. Market seems to have got this right with the three in single figure odds in DREAMFORCE, ISTRIA and OUR BELISA. Clearly the three to beat. Going to lean with ISTRIA here despite the shorter quote at $2.80+ with each of UBET, NEDS and BET365. Win last start was superb, brained opposition and still gets in well at the weights while on the upward spiral. Primary WIN play, then want a secondary play on HIGH MIST at $15+ with most operators. Was keen last time, but willing to give another chance after getting too far back, shuffled off the track and hitting the line well enough late. Main dangers DREAMFORCE and OUR BELISA, would be surprised if the winner isn’t mentioned above.

SUGGEST: ISTRIA (WIN - PRIMARY) @ $2.80+, HIGH MIST (EACH WAY – SECONDARY) @ $15+, FIRST FOUR (2, 4 / 6, 8 / F / 6, 8), (boxed 2, 4, 6, 8) (CONFIDENCE 40%) 

 

SUMMARY:

Average odds $12.45+ per suggested runner!

** BEST VALUE **: HOGMANAY @ $7+, TEST THE WORLD @ $7+

*BEST LONGSHOTS*: OVERSTEP @ $21+, MAGICAZ @ $21+

#happypunting