SATURDAY, NOVEMBER 4, 2016
Racing at ROSEHILL with strong rain forecast (90% chance of 5-15mm), however we need to be careful as the rain was forecast last Saturday in Melbourne, it didn’t come and as a result we had a track suiting those on pace. Rain comes and it changes the overall dynamic. Radar actually looks fairly clear right now. Given the above, I’m assuming at least 5mm will arrive, hence looking at a SOFT (5) but could be softer if it’s closer to the 15mm.
RAIL: TRUE (ENTIRE CIRCUIT). We head to ROSEHILL with the rail back in the TRUE position. Hard to know with any certainty as to how the track will play given anywhere from 5-15mm is forecast to land, but would lean towards those away from the fence getting their chance. But given the forecast, very important to keep a close eye on the track and how it’s playing in the early races for best guide, especially after any rainfall of note.
Race 1: We start with the two year olds over 1100m and the rain situation makes it even tougher here, so I wouldn’t be unloading into anything, especially those short in the market with any crazy confidence. Actually like the odds on offer for the two at the top of the card for less popular trainers in the form of CATANZARO @ $10+ (most operators) and *GONE WEST* at a juicy $26+ with UBET, NEDS and BET365. CATANZARO was severely inconvenienced at a critical time in the straight on debut and if you watch the footage post the finish line quickly ends up on the heels of the winner and runner up. While *GONE WEST* at least showed he can handle a heavy track and make ground from off the pace, which may be handy here, depending how track is playing, especially early. At the price, happy to make a BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day. Main danger STUNTS. Note, no third dividend.
SUGGEST: CATANZARO (EACH WAY) @ $10+, *GONE WEST* (EACH WAY) @ $26+, FIRST FOUR (5 / 3, 4 / 1, 2 / 1, 2) (CONFIDENCE 20%)
Race 2: Next is a benchmark 75 for the three year olds over 1300m. Was super keen on SPARKY LAD at a tidy $5.50 price, was to be our best of the day anywhere in the country, but annoyingly we wake up Saturday to see him scratched. As a result, will upgrade REKINDLED FORCE to top billing here at $6+ (CENTREBET) after running good time at first to starts/wins and importantly the latest on a soft track which may come into play here. The key is leaders/those close to the fence getting their chance. Main danger most definitely UNFORGOTTEN who looks a real up and comer and will be hitting the line hard. Note, no third dividend.
SUGGEST: REKINDLED FORCE (EACH WAY) @ $6+, FIRST FOUR (7 / F / F / 8) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 3: Next is a benchmark 85 to be run over 1100m and a good, small, yet competitive affair, as the market suggests with most runners at single figure odds. As much as I’m a fan of TANGO RAIN, I’m leaning towards PICK ME UP here at more than double the odds at a tidy $6.50+ with BET365. Reckon the gelding has come back better than ever, after first up run when just missing and arguably goes better second up and will appreciate the step up to 1100m. Never won at this trip (all wins at 1200m) but just think there’s a bit more zip in the legs to salute at the slightly shorter trip here. Main danger most definitely TANGO RAIN who looks well suited this grade but does have 61.5kg to carry.
SUGGEST: PICK ME UP (EACH WAY) @ $6.50+, FIRST FOUR (2 / F / F / 4) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 4: Next is an open event over 1800m and yet again a small (very small, just the 6 runners), but very competitive affair with 5 of the 6 runners at single figure prices. Like COLLATERAL here at $4.50+ with POINTSBET. Had the audacity to almost beat therm last start over the much to short 1400m so should simply grow a leg over this much more suitable 1800m. Gets in very well at the weights with a light 54kg with Jay Ford aboard. Looks very hard to beat, and keen. Main danger BLACK ON GOLD for that man C J Waller with even less weight (53kg), just missed last time after a first up win and should be fighting out the finish, but rock bottom odds for mine at $2.20 with most operators. Others with legitimate claims, but happy to simply play around the two at the bottom of the weights. Note, no third dividend, which I actually don’t mind playing each way, with the enhanced place odds on offer when only two dividends.
SUGGEST: COLLATERAL (EACH WAY) @ $4.50+ (CONFIDENCE 45%)
Race 5: Next is the Class 3 TAB Highway over 1200m and a tricky race for mine. Actually going to play a couple at juicy prices here, in the form of SOUTHERN FLIGHT at $15+ (BET365) and TIGER BY THE TALE at a juicy $31+ with CENTREBET and WILLIAM HILL. SOUTHERN FLIGHT has only been out of the top 2, twice in career and like the fact she ran well first up after a long break and has had a nice, little freshen up since, hopefully targeting this race. Handles softer going and the 1200m should now be the ideal trip after maturing as a five year old. While, TIGER BY THE TALE is first up at a price after not disgracing in better quality fields than this, running behind the likes of Clipper, Suncraze, Il Mio Destino and Nic’s Vendetta in the past. Track needs to be giving those off the pace their chance, but in particular if the rain does come down hard, then that could be every chance. At the price, happy to take the punt regardless. Main dangers I AM CAPITAN, NEYLA’S GIRL and EQUAL BALANCE.
SUGGEST: SOUTHERN FLIGHT (EACH WAY) @ $15+, TIGER BY THE TALE (EACH WAY) @ $31+, FIRST FOUR (2, 6, 7 / F / 2, 6, 7 / 5, 10) (CONFIDENCE 25%)
Race 6: First leg of the quaddie is a benchmark 80 over 1800m. Like **CARZOFF** here at $5+ with most operators. Since arriving in Australia last prep, was always strong in the market and in a couple of instances in particular heavily backed. However had a habit of doing things wrong, not quite hitting the line, which meant falling short, but notably to some decent gallopers. Was $2 hot fave against Collateral and did plenty wrong, going down 0.4L. Has since had a break, gone up to Queenland, returned with a nice first up 2nd and returned to NSW. The stable are very good at fixing any chinks in the armour and that’s exactly what I’m thinking/hoping has happened here. If so, should be very hard to beat and I’ll actually make a BEST VALUE bet of the day. Main dangers MORNINGTON (the unknown quantity on debut in Aus, monitor market), IMPAVIDO and MORTAR PLATOON who followers will recall from two weeks’ back when saluting as our best longshot of the day at 30/1. No such price on offer today.
SUGGEST: **CARZOFF** (EACH WAY) @ $5+, FIRST FOUR (1, 3, 7 / F / 1, 3, 7 / 4) (CONFIDENCE 45%)
Race 7: Next is a benchmark 82 for the fillies and mares over 1100m and this is ultra-competitive also with many legitimate winning chances despite the relatively small field of 8. Interesting to see ANATOLA is now with Mark Newnham and runs here first up in Sydney for the new stable at a tidy $8.50+ with BET365. Has always shown very good ability and a change of scenery just might do the trick. Strike rates are strong with 3 wins and 9 overall placings from 12 starts. Has had a trial and showed enough to say can be ready for a crack first up here, and importantly does have first up and wet track form. Main dangers IN TIMES OF WAR (has actually never finished outside the top 2 from 11 starts, but just the two wins to show) and SLOW BURN who actually meets IN TIMES OF WAR better at the weights (after the respective claims) for a narrow defeat last time.
SUGGEST: ANATOLA (EACH WAY) @ $8.50+, FIRST FOUR (2, 6 / 2, 6 / F / 4) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 8: Penultimate event is a benchmark 92 over 1200m. Good race, and at the risk of sounding like a broken record, plenty of legitimate chances. Leaning towards MY COUNTRY here at $6+ with LADBROKES, BOOKMAKERS.COM.AU and BETSTAR. Win last start was very good for a race like this and it’s amazing what confidence does once you return to the winner’s stalls. Should appreciate a decent tempo up front with several leading types battling here and hopefully finish over the top of them again. Then, definitely also want a play on *PETROSSIAN* at a juicy $23+ with CENTREBET. Actually meets our top pick MY COUNTRY better at the weights here (2kg) for only a 1.2kg defeat, and when you compare the odds ($6.50 v $23) you simply can’t play one without the other. At the price, happy to make a BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day. Main danger MAGIC ALIBI (scared stiff, just couldn’t squeeze in), GRUNDERZEIT and ZUMBELINA.
SUGGEST: MY COUNTRY (EACH WAY) @ $6+, *PETROSSIAN* (EACH WAY) @ $23+, FIRST FOUR (4, 9, 10 / 7, 11 / F / 7, 11) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 9: We finish with a benchmark 83 over 1400m and will keep this short and sweet to finish off with here and have **HIGH MIST** as the clear top pick at $4.40+ with SPORTSBET. Loved the way this gelding hit the line last week, have always had a good opinion of it and gets in very well at the weights after the 3kg claim, dropping to 54kg. A lot to like and looks an each way special. Happy to make a BEST VALUE bet of the day to finish off the day. Main dangers CRAFTY COP, GAMBLER’S BLUES (first up) and SIREN’S FURY. But just the one out HIGH MIST in last leg of your skinny quaddie.
SUGGEST: **HIGH MIST** (EACH WAY) @ $4.40+, FIRST FOUR (1, 10, 13 / F / 1, 10, 13 / 7), (1, 10, 13 / 7 / F / 1, 10, 13) (CONFIDENCE 45%)
Average odds a juicy $12.16+ per suggested runner!
** BEST VALUE **: CARZOFF @ $5+, HIGH MIST @ $4.40+
*BEST LONGSHOT*: GONE WEST @ $26+, PETROSSIAN @ $23+