16 December 2017 (Racing at Royal Randwick)

PUNTING DUNGEON

WWW.PUNTINGDUNGEON.COM.AU

ROYAL RANDWICK

SATURDAY, DECEMBER 16, 2017

 

Racing at ROYAL RANDWICK with the chance of a late storm, however only 0-3mm of rain expected, so hopefully we get through the card before any storm activity arrives. Penetrometer currently 5.24, hence currently looking at a SOFT (5) surface after rain late yesterday in Sydney.

RAIL: TRUE (ENTIRE CIRCUIT). We head to RANDWICK after a break and a long stretch of Rosehill Saturday meetings, with the rail in the TRUE position, as you’d expect. Hoping for an even track, but as always, be sure to keep a close eye on early races for best guide.

 

Race 1: We start with a benchmark 70 over 1100m and tricky start for mine. Can’t get overly enthused about those short in the market, hence similar to the opener at Caulfield, looking at a couple at better double figure odds with smaller plays instead. The two here are ROYAL PHOENIX at $11+ with BET365 and LUXBET and BOYISH at $23+ with most operators. Happy to forgive ROYAL PHOENIX for first up flop on the heavy Ballarat track that many didn’t handle especially after the heavens had opened. First up last prep was a good victory beating the handy Andaz down the straight at Flemington. BOYISH similarly was a forgive last time when pulled up lame and prior to that won two on the trot and potentially important here, led which the gelding may do here and might just be able to dictate terms here. Throw a blanket over the rest. Note, no third dividend.

SUGGEST: ROYAL PHOENIX (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $11+, BOYISH (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $23+, FIRST FOUR (F / F / 3, 6 / 3, 6) (CONFIDENCE 25%)

 

Race 2: Next is the TAB Highway Handicap to be run over 1000m and there looks to be plenty of speed here. As a result, looking at those set to come from off the pace with those up front hopefully taking each other out of the game with respective speed battles. Part of me wants to play TAKOOKACOD standalone at $7.50+ (BET365) however barrier 3 might mean a bit of luck will be needed at a critical stages. Instead, thinking I throw a few eggs in the basket at odds as this just looks like that sort of race where luck is set to play a key part in the end result. As a result, thinking of plays on each of MAGIC BENETEAU at $23+ (UBET, POINTSBET, CROWNBET), UNDER THE THUMB at $21+ (BET365) and finally *EPIC DECISION* at $31+ also with BET365. All have decent enough form for a race like this, each should appreciate the expected strong tempo and most importantly each look over the odds and value. At the price, happy to make EPIC DECISION a BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day. Main dangers TAKOOKACOD, ELLE’S NEL and VICTOREM who is definitely the one to beat but rock bottom odds at $2 with most operators.

SUGGEST: MAGIC BENETEAU (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $23+, UNDER THE THUMB (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $21+, *EPIC DECISION* (EACH WAY) @ $31+, FIRST FOUR (6, 9, 11 / F / 6, 9, 11 / 3, 5, 13) (CONFIDENCE 25%)

 

Race 3: Next is one of the sub-features of the day, the Listed Christmas Cup to be run over 2400m. Hard to go past the red hot favourite here in BROADSIDE who simply put should be too strong for these at $1.70+ with most operators. Should only improve second up, this is no harder than good first up win and Josh Parr more than handy replacement for Tim Clark who isn’t in Sydney. Primary WIN only play and a good option for multies and/or a one out early quaddie leg. Also, want a secondary play on *HUNDRED* at $51+ with BET365. Needs to step up bigtime in this grade, but brings good form to this with last start 4th better than it may look on face value. Hard to see toppling the top pick, but over the odds for mine and can make own luck out in front and at the price, happy to make a BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day. Throw a blanket over the rest. Note, no third dividend.

SUGGEST: BROADSIDE (WIN - PRIMARY) @ $1.70+, *HUNDRED* (EACH WAY – SECONDARY) @ $51+, FIRST FOUR (F / 1 / 7 / F), (F / 1 / F / 7) (CONFIDENCE 65%)

 

Race 4: Next is another sub-feature of the day, this time for the two year olds in the Inglis Nursery at 1000m. Leaning towards LOGAN RIVER here at a very tidy $10+ with CENTREBET. Like the fact Luke Currie has made the trek north to ride and is his only ride for the day so will be desperate to make the venture worthwhile. Will need some luck from the gate (12) but obviously a key reason for the double figure price. Happy to play there on an each way basis, then simply play multiples with main dangers stablemate SANCTIMONIOUS, COSIMO, MISS INVINCIBLE and LET ME SLEEP ON IT. Doesn’t end there.

SUGGEST: LOGAN RIVER (EACH WAY) @ $10+, FIRST FOUR (2, 4, 10, 11 / F / 2, 4, 10, 11 / 3), (2, 4, 10, 11 / 2, 4, 10, 11 / F / 3), (F / 2, 4, 10, 11 / 2, 4, 10, 11 / 3) (CONFIDENCE 35%)

 

Race 5: Next is a benchmark 84 over 1200m and have spent a bit of time trying to turn three runners into two and have landed on ANATOLA at $11+ (most operators) and *SUSPENDERS* at $15+ (LUXBET), ‘just’ ahead of O’RACHAEL at a juicy $23+ (BET365). Just think the top two mentioned there are better suited over this trip and where they are in their respective preps, while O’RACHAEL should be better for the run. ANATOLA ready to win for new stable, has always had ability and looks well placed this grade, while SUSPENDERS looks over the odds after very nice trial when 2nd (not pushed) with big gaps to 3rd and beyond. Goes well fresh, goes well at the 1200m. Main dangers O’RACHAEL (will hurt a little should she prevail), IN TIMES OF WAR, SECRET TRAIL and PURRARI.

SUGGEST: ANATOLA (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $11+, SUSPENDERS (EACH WAY) @ $15+, FIRST FOUR (3, 4, 5, 10 / F / 3, 4, 5, 10 / 6, 7), (3, 4, 5, 10 / 6, 7 / F / 6, 7) (CONFIDENCE 35%) 

 

Race 6: First leg of the main quaddie is the right2drive handicap over the mile (1600m). Sticking with SEDANZER here despite conceding wouldn’t want much lower than the $3+ on offer with CENTREBET. $2.80 probably the minimum, under that not sure we’re getting the value we’re after. We were very keen first up when a massive drift and won against the pattern in style, then jump off at the short price last time when too good again. In form, but does jump in weight, however does get 1.5kg relief through King. Primary play, ahead of ZOURKHAN at a tidy $14+ with UBET, UNIBET and CENTREBET. Won trial in readiness for this will appreciate the track if remains in the soft range. Won very well first up last time when 30/1 and no reason can’t do it again here. Main danger most definitely DREAMFORCE with the track and how it’s playing key there, as will be out in front making own luck.

SUGGEST: SEDANZER (WIN / EACH WAY - PRIMARY) @ $3+, ZOURKHAN (EACH WAY) @ $14+, FIRST FOUR (roving 2, 3, 8 / F), (F / 3 / F / 2, 8) (CONFIDENCE 45%)

 

Race 7: Now for the feature of the day, the Group 2 Villiers Stakes to be run over the mile (1600m). Good race as you’d expect and plenty of legitimate winning chances. Leaning towards MISTER SEA WOLF here at $7+ (BET365) and willing to give RED EXCITEMENT another go here at a tidy $17+ price. MISTER SEA WOLF was very good at Australian debut first up and this was always the aim second up and as a result should be fitter for the run. Sticky gate, so how track is playing will be important, with chances enhanced if rain arrives and/or they are getting off the fence, especially by the time race 7 arrives. RED EXCITEMENT we were on last time at a price, and the run was very good, hitting the line hard for 3rd. Not long agao gave Winx and the entire nation a massive scare. Main dangers SALSONIC (similar run to RED EXCITEMENT last time and actually had slightly better final sectionals), TESTASHADOW (did actually win that race), CRACK ME UP and EMBLEY all at odds, so looking to try and get a slice of big multiple dividends, in the hope CABEZA DE VACA and INTERLOCUTER miss here, both key chances but little value in my opinion.

SUGGEST: MISTER SEA WOLF (EACH WAY) @ $7+, RED EXCITEMENT (EACH WAY) @ $17+, (4, 7, 10, 15 / F / 4, 7, 10, 15 / 2, 11), (4, 7, 10, 15 / 2, 11 / F / 2, 11) (CONFIDENCE 30%) 

 

Race 8: Penultimate event is the Listed Razor Sharp Handicap to be run over 1200m. Similar to an earlier race, have landed on three and feel obliged given odds on offer to squeeze into two, hence have landed on **THE MONSTAR** at $15+ (CENTREBET) and PALAZZO PUBBLICO at $11+ (BET365), just ahead of old mate ISORICH at $16+ (BET365) who always comes up over the odds. Speaking of underrated, THE MONSTAR definitely falls into that category and should get a good run from barrier 2. $15+ an excellent price and happy to make a BEST VALUE bet of the day despite the very juicy price. While PALAZZO PUBBLICO was super first up and looks to have come back well. They’ve been patient before landing here. Main dangers ISORICH (similar to O’Rachael will hurt should he salute, but we can always remind ourselves of the day we were on the gelding at 50/1 to soften the blow), CALANDA, SIR PLUSH and CHETWOOD. Good, competitive race.

SUGGEST: **THE MONSTAR** (EACH WAY) @ $15, PALAZZO PUBBLICO (WIN . EACH WAY) @ $11+, FIRST FOUR (1, 7, 11, 13 / F / 1, 7, 11, 13 / 3, 9), (1, 7, 11, 13 / 3, 9 / F / 3, 9) (CONFIDENCE 35%) 

 

Race 9: And we finish with a benchmark 82 over 1400m and going to keep this short and sweet given the apparent lack of tempo in the race. REDOUBLE should be able to dictate terms up front and if leaders are getting their chance, the n should be hard to catch despite the 60kg on his back. $5.50+ with BET365 looks a nice each way price, and also happy to make a BEST VALUE bet of the day to finish things off. Main danger POWERLINE, UPTOWN LAD, LEVEL EIGHT and MALAISE.

SUGGEST: **REDOUBLE** (EACH WAY) @ $5.50+, FIRST FOUR (1, 4, 6, 9 / F / 1, 4, 6, 9 / 2), (1, 4, 6, 9 / 2 / F / 1, 4, 6, 9) (CONFIDENCE 35%) 

 

 

SUMMARY:

Average odds $15.89+ per suggested runner!

** BEST VALUE **: THE MONSTAR @ $15+, REDOUBLE @ $5.50+

*BEST LONGSHOTS*: HUNDRED @ $51+, EPIC DECISION @ $31+

#happypunting