2 December 2017 (Group 1 racing at Ascot - WA)

PUNTING DUNGEON

WWW.PUNTINGDUNGEON.COM.AU

ASCOT

SATURDAY, DECEMBER 2, 2017

                     

Racing at ASCOT with hot weather forecast, hence we’ll be race on a dry track. Penetrometer 6.5, hence currently a GOOD (4) surface but will only improve.

RAIL: +6M (ENTIRE CIRCUIT). We head to ASCOT for one of their main days in the sun (literally) with rail out +6M. As a result, expecting no major disadvantage to be on pace, close to the fence, pace dependant however as always be sure to monitor early races for best guide

 

Race 1: We start with a handicap over the mile (1600m) and I’m keen on SEE ME SIZZLE here to hopefully do as the five year old gelding’s name suggest and sizzle from barrier to post. Hopefully the 3kg relief down in grade here will be enough to hold them off late and should be a relatively straight forward ride for a 3kg claiming apprentice from barrier 3.Just need to ensure she doesn’t get caught up in any speed battles, as that would be our undoing. Hopefully, a nice easy watch to start the card at $3.60+ with UNIBET and LUXBET. Main dangers TOUCH OF SILVER, CHASING CHAOS, NO SAY IN IT and RULING ANGEL.

SUGGEST: SEE ME SIZZLE (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $3.60+, FIRST FOUR (2, 3, 8, 9 / 1 / 2, 3, 8, 9 / F) (CONFIDENCE 40%)

 

Race 2: Next is a benchmark 72+ over 1400m, minimal pace on paper and this looks very straight forward in terms of ROYAL STAR simply being too good for rivals here. Minimal pace on paper, with Willy Pike expected to just behind the leader (NEW TIME) and from barrier 3 can just stay one off the fence to avoid traffic as they straighten. Pike has elected to ride ahead of main danger and key rival, the in-form LA MOULINE which is an extra lead if you needed more than the drop down from Group 3 level here. Short enough at $1.80+ (LDBROKES, BOOKMAKERS.COM.AU, BETSTAR) but actually think anything $1.60+ is the right price and backable. If not standalone, simply play one out in early quaddie.

SUGGEST: ROYAL STAR (WIN) @ $1.80+ (CONFIDENCE 70%)

 

Race 3: Next is another handicap over 1400m and unlike previous, there does look to be some pace on paper here and if leaders/those on the fence are advantaged early, then every chance of some over compensation here, which could give those off the pace their chance. Spewing about the scratching of CRANKY DANCER who was to be the clear cut best longshot on the card at $26+. Thought he was a super chance at a big price, but not to be. As a result, sole play becomes KING OF WU here at a tidy enough $10+ with CENTREBET. In form and there aren’t any world-beaters here despite some at very short prices. Main dangers the obvious in BOLD SUCCESS (can win but $1.95 = poison odds) and RAGAZZO D’ORO.

SUGGEST: KING OF WU (EACH WAY) @ $10+, FIRST FOUR (4, 6 / F / 4, 6 / 1) (CONFIDENCE 30%)

 

Race 4: Next is another benchmark 72+ handicap, this time over the short 1000m distance. THE RIVER is all the rage and somewhat rightly so, but similar to the above, not interested in the very short $1.70 price with most operators. Gee, Willy Pike has several very short priced runners, so could be a big day for the Perth’s best known jockey who will no doubt ride with the hopes of plenty of eastern seaboard punters as usual come late Saturday afternoon. Instead, think much better value lies with **GEE BOSS** at $8+ with LADBROKES, BOOKMAKERS.COM.AU, BETSTAR and CENTREBET. First up, however has had two trials to get ready for this, including easy 4.5L trial win at latest, with 2nd placegetter (Classical Prince) not far away in town last week, running 3rd beaten 0.8L. Looks a nice each way price to try and knock off the hot pot and main danger THE RIVER. At the price, happy to make a BEST VALUE bet of the day. Just the two needed for the last leg of the early quaddie for mine.  

SUGGEST: **GEE BOSS** (EACH WAY) @ $8+, FIRST FOUR (F / 3, 7 / 3, 7 / F), (3 / F / F / 7) (CONFIDENCE 35%)

 

Race 5: First leg of the main quaddie is the Sterling-crystal Slipper Stakes for the two year olds over 1100m. Tricky race given limited form, however slight lean to the fave here in FAIRTRUSIVE at a tidy enough $3.30+ with most operators. Think this might be one Pike runner who happens to not be unders (or so we can only hope) and after taking on a few earlier at short prices, hopefully he gets back into the winner’s stalls here at the better price. Overcame a slow start last time and despite a slow tempo (race time very slow), was good enough to win, which is a good sign. Hoping we jump much better here and end up much closer to the leaders to then be hard to beat here. Also, want something on one at odds here in CHASING THE ACE at $19+ with most operators. Don’t like racing style and if leaders are dominating, chances reduce, but there is some tempo up front here and several debutantes who can add extra pressure also. Good enough if those off the pace are getting their chance and at the price, happy to take the punt anyways in this 2YO event. Main dangers NOCELLE (just missed being the main play here, should be able to cross easily enough and settle behind the leaders), NGAWI and NEMIROFF.

SUGGEST: FAIRTRUSIVE (WIN / EACH WAY - PRIMARY) @ $3.30+, CHASING THE ACE (EACH WAY – SECONDARY) @ $19+, FIRST FOUR (3, 5, 12 / 7 / F / 9) (CONFIDENCE 35%) 

 

Race 6: Next is a 1200m event worth a tidy $100k, hence the curtain raiser for the Group 1 which follows. And there looks to be plenty of pace on paper here, amplified by the fact that several on pace runners have drawn wide, hence expect a mad scamper to be on/close to that rail early on. Thinking that might just set things up for a swooper here even if track has advantaged leaders/ those on rail prior. As a result, slight lean towards **FINANCE** here at $8.50+ with LADBROKES, BOOKMAKERS.COM.AU, BETSTAR and CENTREBET. Will definitely appreciate a strong tempo up front, so the faster they go, the better. Been consistent to date (6 placings from 7 starts) but definitely time to notch up another win at start number 8. At the price, happy to make another BEST VALUE bet of the day. Also, want a play on PENALTY POINT at a tidy $14+ price with LUXBET. Was very much a tough one in terms of who of PENALTY POINT or RIKKI TIKKI TAVI would be the second play, however 1kg swing in the weights has made me sway “just” to PENALTY POINT but nothing between them and prices are very similar. Another very consistent type with 1 x win, 3 x 2nd at past four starts. Main dangers RIKKI TIKKI TAVI, NICCATRICE, RUSSIAN RIVER and MANTIME. Happy to take on RIVER DANCE at the short price, with the big weight and the tricky draw (14), but more than capable.

SUGGEST: **FINANCE** (EACH WAY) @ $8.50+, PENALTY POINT (EACH WAY) @ $14+, FIRST FOUR (2, 3, 4, 6 / F / 2, 3, 4, 6 / 9, 13), (2, 3, 4, 6 / 2, 9, 13 / F / 2, 9, 13) (CONFIDENCE 30%)

 

Race 7: Now for the big one, the feature, not just for Ascot, but anywhere in Australia today, with the running of the Group 1 Winterbottom Stakes over 1200m. As you’d expect several key form lines to try and line up, with many come from the east to take on those who have been battling away out west. STATE SOLICITOR is favourite, however personally think is rock bottom odds at $3.10 with most despite faultless form, especially in recent times. Didn’t win by a great margin last time and meets rivals worse off at the weights, hence definitely needs to step up here, which we know he is most likely capable of doing, the question is how much/to what level. The one best weighted from that last encounter is WHISPERING BROOK and looks great value here at $15+ with UBET. Eastern state punters would know this galloper from the past, but has been out west in recent times and running consistently, without winning. Looks well placed here and should be able to settle in a prominent spot from barrier 8. Wouldn’t be opposed to her leading as there doesn’t look to be a heap of pace on paper. For similar reason, also want to play CAIPIRINHA at $21+ with both UBET and CENTREBET. Not as well weighted compared to top pick, but was only 0.2L from the hot fave and does meet STATE SOLICITOR 2.5kg better for that run. Finally, again for similar reason and using the same form line / thinking, want something on *DURENDAL* (another known to eastern punters) who looks big overs at a massive $51+ with BET365. At the price, happy to make a BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day. Main dangers STATE SOLICITOR and then those coming from the east in ROCK MAGIC, FUHRYK and VIDDORA.

SUGGEST: WHISPERING BROOK (EACH WAY) @ $15+, CAIPIRINHA (EACH WAY) @ $21+, *DURENDAL* (EACH WAY) @ $51+, FIRST FOUR (1, 8, 9, 12 / F / 1, 8, 9, 12 / 3, 10, 13), (1, 8, 9, 12 / 3, 10, 13 / F / 3, 10, 13) (CONFIDENCE 30%) 

 

Race 8: We finish with a benchmark 66+ to be run over the longer 2100m. Tricky finish, but leaning towards STAR VALUE here at still a respectable $9.50+ (PALMERBET, BET365, UBET), although as much as $16 was on offer in early markets, simply the wrong price. Unknown at the trip but shows all signs it shouldn’t be a problem and importantly should get a good run in transit. Then, something on longshot *SAXAPAK* at a very juicy $41+ with CENTREBET. Was only 1.4L from key chance here DUDEMANBRO and they meet at the same weight differential here and one is $6.50 with most v $41. And will appreciate any advantage to those on pace/near fence, the likely leader from barrier 1. As a result, will make a BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day at the price. Race runs deep, with many legitimate chances.

SUGGEST: STAR VALUE (EACH WAY - PRIMARY) @ $9.50, *SAXAPAK* (EACH WAY - SECONDARY) @ $41+, FIRST FOUR (F / 5 / F / 15) (CONFIDENCE 35%) 

 

SUMMARY:

Average odds $15.82+ per suggested runner!

** BEST VALUE **: GEE BOSS @ $8+, FINANCE @ $8.50+

*BEST LONGSHOTS*: DURENDAL @ $51+, SAXAPAK @ $41+

#happypunting