2 December 2017 (Racing at Rosehill Gardens)

PUNTING DUNGEON

WWW.PUNTINGDUNGEON.COM.AU

ROSEHILL GARDENS

SATURDAY, DECEMBER 2, 2017

                     

Racing at ROSEHILL GARDENS with fine weather forecast for most of the week, but once again to complicate things forecast is for rain (was to be 6-8mm, but since upgraded to a concerning 15-25mm) on Saturday, hence guesswork as to what actually hits. Penetrometer reading 4.63, hence a GOOD (3) currently, but the forecast seems clear cut (despite them getting it wrong in recent times) and as a result assume we’ll be on a SOFT (5-6) surface early and then head into the HEAVY range later.

RAIL: +3M (ENTIRE CIRCUIT). We head to ROSEHILL with rail out +3M, after being in the TRUE position last week. Hoping for an even track, but especially given the uncertainty regarding the weather, be sure to monitor early races for best guide and if/when the rain comes and expect them to be getting off the fence the longer they race on the rain affected track.

NOTE: Trying to dodge the uncertain weather in recent weeks, with little/no luck. Main issue being Saturdays being the unknown the forecast not being accurate on many occasions, hence either banking on the rain coming (and it doesn’t) and vice-versa. Hoping for a much clearer forecast/situation from next weekend and moving forward.

 

Race 1: We start with the two year olds and hoping to start similar to last week when we took on the hot pot $1.40 fave, snagged the $7.50 winner and the one that caught the eye late was out secondary play at 50/1 who flew home for 3rd. This week, we’re actually in the camp of the favourite, although much better than $1.40 on offer, with $2.90+ of offer with top pick MISS INVINCIBLE with LADBROKES, BOOKMAKERS.COM.AU and BETSTAR. Has looked good (and run fast time) in winning two trials and will hopefully be too slick for them here. Then, a secondary play on FLYING PIERRO at a tidy $13+ with the same three Ladbrokes’ related operators. Shown ‘enough’ at trials to say can run a race on debut, although Pierro’s can take a couple of runs to show best. Main dangers the Godolphin duo of RHEINGAU and COLOMBINA. But given we have several debutantes to deal with here be short to throw any market movers into your multiples. Best way to track is to download the free app at www.plungeapp.com.au/download.

SUGGEST: MISS INVINCIBLE (WIN / EACH WAY - PRIMARY) @ $2.90+, FLYING PIERRO (EACH WAY – SECONDARY) @ $13+, FIRST FOUR (1, 7 / 8 / F / 3) (CONFIDENCE 35%)

 

Race 2: Next is a benchmark 75 over 1200m and while initially there was a lot of good form to sort through here as most last start winners and all runners having run worst case 3rd at their previous start, the field has been destroyed Saturday morning with the majority of the field scratched leaving just a field of four. Hence, the original thinking that there was ‘plenty of pace on paper’ is no longer valid, but the small field does make for a far more tactical affair now. Slight lean CURDLED (the outsider of the four) at a respectable $6+ with most operators. Was to appreciate the strong tempo up front, however even though a lot of that pace in lo longer there, can still measure up here, and has the added benefit of being proven on soft and heavy going should the rain have arrived by race 2. All three others level pegging for mine and given the small field no value in multiples anymore. Given the field of four, just the WIN dividend, hence we’re playing on a WIN only basis.

SUGGEST: CURDLED (WIN) @ $6+ (CONFIDENCE 30%)

 

Race 3: Next is a benchmark 85 over 2400m and another very competitive race, as illustrated by the market with six of the eight runners at single figure odds and all eight runners at 13/1 or less. Like GREAT GLEN here at $5+ (BET365, LUXBET, UBET) after just missing last time and importantly gets in nicely at the weights here. Is adaptable, able to race on speed (led last time) or get back in races. Hoping for another positive ride here after going very well last time. If the rain has already arrived, then wary as unproven on a soft or worse track, but banking on the track still being firm enough at this stage with the rain still to come. Main dangers stablemate VASSAL and IMPERIAL AVIATOR. Given scratchings Saturday morning, there is no longer any third dividend with only seven starters.

SUGGEST: GREAT GLEN (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $5+, FIRST FOUR (1, 3 / F / 1, 3 / 5) (CONFIDENCE 35%)

 

Race 4: Next is the Class 2 TAB Highway over 1200m, and a big, open field to try and sort through here. Like one at odds here in METRALLA at $16+ with both SPORTSBET. Got too far back on debut before making good ground late, then won impressively last time after being slow away again, but proving too good. Up in grade, but hopefully on the upward spiral with only two runs to date and can hopefully improve further in this tougher affair. Then, want something on TAKOOKACOD at $7+ with most operators. Liked the win last time on a soft track which holds in good stead here. Only been on the heavy once, and beaten 4.9L, but was at the end of last prep, so had probably/possibly had enough. Disappointed by the omission of JACKKNIFE who was to be a best longshot of the day at 50/1+, but not to be on this occasion. Main danger SAXTON ROCK.  

SUGGEST: METRALLA (EACH WAY) @ $16+, TAKOOKACOD (EACH WAY) @ $7+, FIRST FOUR (1 / 7, 17 / F / 7, 17) (CONFIDENCE 30%)

 

Race 5: Last leg of the early quaddie is a benchmark 85 over 1500m. This race really depends on whether the weather (pardon the pun) has arrived. Mainly due to the expected rain, leaning here to REDOUBLE at a respectable $5+ with BET365. Has ‘some’ form on softer tracks, which is important here as if it was dry I’d be all over SEDANZER who won for us last time at a much better than expected $5.50+ price after liking at a much shorter price, prior to a significant drift. The query is if the rain has come, however has simply never raced on a much softer track, hence it’s an unknown as opposed to a major concern to due previous past form, or lack thereof. Main danger most definitely SEDANZER, then throw a blanket over most others.

SUGGEST: REDOUBLE (EACH WAY) @ $5+, FIRST FOUR (6 / F / F / 2) (CONFIDENCE 35%) 

 

Race 6: First leg of the quaddie is the Listed ATC Cup over 2000m and simply can’t go past SAVAPINSKI here despite the short $2.15+ price (BET365). Was one who caught my eye at Breakfast with the Best before running 2nd Cox Plate Day (should’ve led) and disappointed went with another ahead of it last time when won in style. Looks to have the measure of most here and can handle the softer going. Main danger most definitely BLACK ON GOLD, I’d be surprised if the winner doesn’t come from the two in a narrow start to the main quaddie.

SUGGEST: SAVAPINSKI (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $2.15+, FIRST FOUR (F / 4, 7 / 4, 7 / F), (7 / 4 / F / F) (CONFIDENCE 45%)

 

Race 7: Next is the Group 3 Festival Stakes over 1500m and happy to give RED EXCITEMENT another chance here at a juicy $17+ with BET365. Went back last time, obviously wanted him to go forward, and again hoping that is the case here from barrier 11. If able to cross easily enough and get a soft enough run up/towards the front, then can easily give them something to catch here at a lovely each way price. Then, also want something on **FEDERAL** at $5.50+ (BET365, SPORTSBET) who gets in very well at the weights for last start defeat behind favourite here in CABEZA DE VACA, beaten only 2.3L and gets big 5kg swing and has won on the heavy. Like as the primary play on an each way basis and at the price, actually happy to make a BEST VALUE bet of the day. Has won on heavy and has been placed twice. Main dangers CABEZA DE VACA, MISTER SEA WOLF and TESTASHADOW at a nice $21+ price also.

SUGGEST: **FEDERAL** (EACH WAY - PRIMARY) @ $5.50+, RED EXCITEMENT (EACH WAY – SECONDARY) @ $17+, FIRST FOUR (4, 6, 9 / F / 4, 6, 9 / 1, 8), (4, 6, 9 / 1, 8 / F / 1, 8) (CONFIDENCE 40%) 

 

Race 8: Penultimate event is the Listed Starlight Stakes to be run over 1100m. Disappointed by some of the scratchings, particularly THE MONSTAR, but need to now work with what remains. Going to give a couple we were on last time another chance here, firstly in the form of **TACTICAL ADVANTAGE** at $6+ with BET365. Had excuses last time when just missed behind GLENALL (favourite) and importantly gets weight swing to further assist in turning the tables there. Keen on an each way basis, and happy to make a BEST VALUE bet of the day. Then, *STRATURBO* at a very juicy $51+ with most operators. Comes out of same race and also gets important weight swing on the favourite here after only being beaten 2.8L after we got on at a massive 125/1 last time. At the price, happy to make a BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day. Main dangers TANGO RAIN (if leaders are getting their chance on this track come race 8, a huge chance at a double figure price), DOTHRAKI (has the class, just hasn’t won for a while, but in top stable and first up here), EGYPTIAN SYMBOL (excellent fresh record, despite missing last time, only non-win from 4 attempts) and GLENALL, despite the weight situation.  

SUGGEST: **TACTICAL ADVANTAGE** (EACH WAY - PRIMARY) @ $6, *STRATURBO* (EACH WAY - SECONDARY) @ $51+, FIRST FOUR (1, 5, 12, 17 / F / 1, 5, 12, 17 / 11, 15), (F / 1, 5, 12, 17 / 17 / 11) (CONFIDENCE 35%) 

 

Race 9: And we finish with a benchmark 85 over 1300m. Can’t believe the price on offer for BETTER NOT BLUE at an extremely generous $19+ with most operators. Goes well fresh, and thrives in the wet, and surely by race 9 we’re on a heavy track or very close to. Looks a great each way longshot play at those odds. Has also trialled well enough to be more than competitive here. Similarly, *HEAVENLY ANNA* at a very juicy $26+ with BET365. The wetter the better for this girl, and gets the right weight swing to potentially turn tables or at least get much closer to favourite here in BEST GUESS, meeting 3kg better for 3.4L first up defeat. Given the better price at the moment, will make a BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day. Main dangers BEST GUESS, MACHINEGUN JUBS, POWERLINE and MILWAUKEE.

SUGGEST: BETTER NOT BLUE (EACH WAY) @ $19+, HEAVENLY ANNA (EACH WAY) @ $26+, FIRST FOUR (6, 7, 8, 11 / F / 6, 7, 8, 11 / 4, 12), (6, 7, 8, 11 / 4, 12 / F / 4, 12) (CONFIDENCE 30%) 

 

SUMMARY:

Average odds $12.97+ per suggested runner!

** BEST VALUE **: FEDERAL @ $5.50+, TACTICAL ADVANTAGE @ $6+

*BEST LONGSHOTS*: STRATURBO @ $51+, HEAVENLY ANNA @ $26+

#happypunting