SATURDAY, DECEMBER 26, 2017
Racing at CAULFIELD with fine weather forecast, hence currently looking at a GOOD (3) surface.
RAIL: +6M (ENTIRE CIRCUIT). We head to CAULFIELD with the rail out +6M after being out +12M here 10 days prior. Expecting no major disadvantage closer to the pace, especially if the weather stays warn and track firm (rain is forecast for Wednesday onwards). As always, be sure to keep a close eye on early races for best guide.
Race 1: We start with a benchmark 78 over 1800m. Small field and not the hottest field you’ll see running around this Boxing Day. NETHERFIELD should be hard to beat here @ $2.75+ (BET365, UNIBET) down in weight, but not necessarily up that much in grade (despite the jump from BM64 to 78), as was running in a Group 1 only three starts back in Adelaide. Primary play ahead of a secondary play on *ELECTRIC FUSION* who I’m willing to give one last chance at $21+ (BET365) as the rank outsider in the field. Might be done, and best definitely behind him, but many flopped at Ballarat when the heaven’s opened and even prior at Pakenham, and three back just missed behind Crafty Devil at Moonee Valley which ties in extremely well here. Happy to start with a BEST LONGSHOT of the day, given the price. Happy to play around the two in the order provided, throw a blanket over the rest. No third dividend.
SUGGEST: NETHERFIELD (WIN / EACH WAY - PRIMARY) @ $2.75+, *ELECTRIC FUSION* (EACH WAY - SECONDARY) @ $21+, FIRST FOUR (1, 2, 4, 5 / 6 / 3 / 1, 2, 4, 5) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 2: Next is a benchmark 78 over 2400m and was tossing up CASTA and THE MIGHTY JROD and have leant with CASTA at $6.50+ (CROWNBET, SPORTSBET) who we were on last time when narrowly defeated and can hopefully go one better here. Drawn 1, can be prominent, there doesn’t look to be a great deal of pace and hoping the track doesn’t disadvantage those on pace as every chance Dunn utilises the inside rail to hold the fence. Progressing nicely for a race like this and looks a nice, each way price. Main dangers THE MIGHTY JROD, MY NIKITA who went well after a freshen-up at Moonee Valley and SERENDA THE STARS who was too bad to be true last time and form prior is ideal for a race like this.
SUGGEST: CASTA (EACH WAY) @ $6.50+, FIRST FOUR (4, 6, 8 / F / 4, 6, 8 / 5) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 3: Next is a benchmark 70 for the fillies and mares over the mile (1600m). Tricky little race, with pace/tactics set to be key with little pace on paper. As a result, believe this sets things up best for **WINKELMANN** at $6+ (most operators) who I’m hoping takes a prominent position from barrier 5 with the in-form Baster aboard. We saluted with Royal Applause on Saturday, who was the only to beat this mare home last start. Has been racing consistently of late without winning, so time to now jump back into the winner’s stalls. At the price, happy to make a BEST VALUE bet of the day. Primary play ahead of ELEGANTLY WASTED at a juicy $34+ (SPORTSBET) which I’m hoping was the case for many amongst family yesterday for Christmas Day J. Should lead from the good gate and given the speed map situation, could give some real cheek in the straight especially if those close to the fence are being advantaged early. Main dangers RIVER GODDESS, TRANQUIL MISS, RISING HOPE and REIGNING IN PARIS, however deep race and doesn’t actually end there.
SUGGEST: **WINKELMANN** (EACH WAY - PRIMARY) @ $6+, *ELEGANTLY WASTED* (EACH WAY – SECONDARY) @ $34+, FIRST FOUR (F / 13, 14 / 3, 5, 6, 11 / 13, 14) (CONFIDENCE 30%)
Race 4: Next is a benchmark 70 for the three year olds over 1100m. As opposed to the previous race, there does look to be good pace on paper. Despite the wide gate (which is the obvious query), happy to take the punt with CAO CAO at a tidy $11+ with CENTREBET and UBET. There’s only the one bend over the 1100m circuit, so if we can be three wide with cover, ideally midfield, we should be in a position to pounce late. Primary play, ahead of a secondary play on STREETS OF AVALON at a massive $81+ with UBET and BET365. Up in grade, may be outclassed, but in form and should be positioned on pace just behind leader, so at the price happy to play. Main dangers ONEHUNDRED PERCENT, AMERICAN GENIUS, PREVAILING WINDS and SPIRIT OF AQUADA.
SUGGEST: CAO CAO (EACH WAY - PRIMARY) @ $11+, STREETS OF AVALON (EACH WAY – SECONDARY) @ $81+, FIRST FOUR (2, 3, 4, 8 / 1 / F / 12), (F / 1 / 2, 3, 4, 8 / 12) (CONFIDENCE 30%)
Race 5: First leg of the quaddie is a benchmark 70 for the fillies and mares over 1200m. I think it’s a case of BELLA MARTINI or who knows? And am thinking/hopping the former, with BELLA MARTINI looking well placed in this grade at $3.20+. Looks to be the one on the up, so you’d expect to tick this class box and continuing progressing on the upward spiral we look to be currently on. Main dangers MERIDIAN STAR, JOCASTA, ALASKAN SUN and GO GRACEY.
SUGGEST: BELLA MARTINI (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $3.20+, FIRST FOUR (F / 13 / 4, 6, 12, 14 / 4, 6, 12, 14) (CONFIDENCE 40%)
Race 6: Next is the first of the two features of the day, starting with the Listed Lord Stakes to be run over 1700m and this does look fairly straightforward with the market in my opinion, spot on. Can’t go past PAYROLL here at $2.75+ (POINTSBET) ahead of MASTER RESET who looks the primary (and potentially only) danger at $5.50+ with most operators. As a result, am thinking a primary WIN only play on PAYROLL, and a secondary WIN only saving play on MASTER RESET. Be surprised if the winner doesn’t come out of the two, in the order outlined.
SUGGEST: PAYROLL (WIN - PRIMARY) @ $2.75+, MASTER RESET (WIN – SECONDARY) @ $5.50+ (CONFIDENCE 45%)
Race 7: Penultimate event is the second of the features of the day, in the form of the Listed Christmas Stakes to be run over 1200m. Only steered clear of **THERMAL CURRENT** last time given the rail position, and although today might not be a great deal better (it should be better) and as a result can go a couple of placings better here. Chances/confidence only increase if those off the pace are running on well, especially as the day progresses. Was backed strongly last time and with even luck should go very close here. Happy to play and make a BEST VALUE bet of the day at $5+ (SPORTSBET). Main danger OAK DOOR, LUCKY LIBERTY and KEEN ARRAY.
SUGGEST: **THERMAL CURRENT** (EACH WAY) @ $5+, FIRST FOUR (1, 5, 7 / F / 1, 5, 7 / 2) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 8: We finish with a benchmark 70 over 1100m and have come out with BORD DE GAIN on top here at $5.50+ with each of BET365, POINTSBET and CROWNBET. Prefer over the shorter distance after not being far away without really threatening over 1400m on Oaks Day. Freshen since and returned to the trip (1100m) where the gelding has a win and a third to its name from two starts. Very consistent and hardly runs a bad race. Then, want something on LIBERTY SONG at a juicy $15+ price. There looks to be decent pace on paper here, so can be ridden more patiently here behind the hectic pace and saved for one last crack at them late. Main dangers WRITTEN IN STONE, PRAVRO, SQUEEKY SQUIRREL and DANE THUNDER.
SUGGEST: BORD DE GAIN (EACH WAY - PRIMARY) @ $5.50+, LIBERTY SONG (EACH WAY - SECONDARY) @ $15+, FIRST FOUR (3, 5, 16, 19 / 8, 11 / F / 8, 11) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Average odds $15.32+ per suggested runner!
** BEST VALUE **: WINKELMANN @ $6+, THERMAL CURRENT @ $5+,
*BEST LONGSHOTS*: ELECTRIC FUSION @ $21+, ELEGANTLY WASTED @ $34+