SATURDAY, FEBRUARY 18, 2016
Racing at ROSEHILL GARDENS with the penetrometer reading 5.59, hence currently looking at a SOFT (6) surface. Unfortunately, more rain looks inevitable with 2-5mm forecast and a chance of thunderstorms this afternoon.
RAIL: +3M (ENTIRE CIRCUIT). We head to ROSEHILL GARDENS with more rain in Sydney this week, with the rail out +3M, after being in the TRUE position three weeks’ back. Given the track condition and rain forecast, you’d expect them to be getting off the fence early and coming down the middle of the track, especially as the day progresses. As usual, be sure to keep a close eye on how track is playing early on for best guide.
Race 1: We start with the three year olds over 1100m and a small, but competitive field to start the day. Slight lean SCARLET RAIN at $3.50+ (SPORTSBET, LUXBET) who importantly has a heavy track win, in addition to a great resume to date with 4 wins from 5 starts, only miss in the Golden Slipper when too bad to be true, beaten 30L+ and had probably come to the end of her prep. Has returned well with a win and should be hard to beat here. Throw a blanket over the rest, some without wet track experience, so a bit of guesswork involved. No third dividend.
SUGGEST: SCARLET RAIN (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $3.50+ (CONFIDENCE 30%)
Race 2: Next is a benchmark 88 over 1350m with another smaller but competitive field. Think the value lies with TORGERSON here at $9+ with each of UBET, CROWNBET and BET365. Class galloper on his day, who has had the ultimate gear change over the break, returning as a gelding. Handles the wet, the query is the first up record, but not overly concerned and will receive the benefit of two trials, the latest a nice soft one, where he importantly finished 5th, but was 1st about 50-100m past the line. You’d expect (hope) for improvement after the gelding operation and if so, should be right in this at a nice each way price. No third dividend. Main dangers HANDFAST and ELLE LOU.
SUGGEST: TORGERSEN (EACH WAY) @ $9+, FIRST FOUR (2, 3 / F / 1 / F) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 3: Next is an open event over 1500m and can’t go past ANTONIO GIUSEPPE. Had him in @ $3.50+ with UBET and BET365 here (not long ago), but have just realised he has been crunched into $2.75+. Still happy at the price, but surely the price settles shortly, however now on a WIN only basis. Trials are trials, and both weren’t pushed, but finished alongside a mare names Winx in latest trial with very similar runs, both hitting the line extremely well. Tells me he can fire over this shorter trip, despite longer plans inevitably to follow after this first up run. Main danger STRAWBERRY BOY, who I was adamant I’d be tipping after first glance, but upon closer inspection have gone with ANTONIO GIUSEPPE.
SUGGEST: ANTONIO GIUSEPPE (WIN) @ $2.75+, FIRST FOUR (1 / 2 / F / F) (CONFIDENCE 45%)
Race 4: Class 2 Highway Handicap to be run over 1100m. Tricky, mainly due to the fact somewhat limited wet track form to be confident about for many runners, but despite being in that same boat, think **KOORINGAL STAR** should be hard to beat here at $4.40+ with UBET and CROWNBET. Has superior form to most, proven at trip (unlike some of the main challenges (i.e. ARISTOGRATS) and wasn’t far behind the A-grade Fell Swoop and Single Gaze in a recent trial. Very much good enough for this. Will make a BEST VALUE bet of the day. Then, a secondary play on *DENY ALL CHARGES* who is simply over the odds at $41+ with CROWNBET. Given the big price, will make a BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day.
SUGGEST: **KOORINGAL STAR** (EACH WAY - PRIMARY) @ $4.40+, *DENY ALL CHARGES* (EACH WAY - SECONDARY) @ $41, FIRST FOUR (F / 3 / F / 6) (CONFIDENCE 40%)
Race 5: Next is the Group 2 Silver Slipper Stakes and obviously a key lead up to the Golden Slipper with the current favourite and third favourite for the 2YO classic both lining up here in the form of SHE WILL REIGN and KHAN. As we’re communicated in the past, simply can’t go past SHE WILL REIGN @ $1.55+ (most operators) who looks absolutely bomb proof, despite the apparent major competition here, mainly in the form of KHAN who was impressive on debut, before a break. Quinella might actually be the safest play as they do look to be the two standouts and expect them to be fighting out the finish.
SUGGEST: SHE WILL REIGN (WIN) @ $1.55, QUINELLA (SHE WILL REIGN, KHAN) (CONFIDENCE 75%)
Race 6: Now for another of the features of the day, this time in the form of the Group 2 Hobartville Stakes for the three year olds over 1400m. And this looks ultra-tough and close to a raffle. Various form lines, fitness levels and mixed wet track form to try and decipher. MAN FROM UNCLE got the chocolates for us last time at a big price, we snagged $34 before he was crunched into $14. Either way, big price. You won’t be seeing that today, actually $6+ withy most operators, despite the arguably tougher field, but has done little wrong, didn’t have everything go his way last time but was very good late. Happy to play there, with main dangers COMIN’ THROUGH, PRIZED ICON and BRYNEICH.
SUGGEST: MAN FROM UNCLE (EACH WAY) @ $6+, FIRST FOUR (1, 4, 8 / F / F / 5) (CONFIDENCE 30%)
Race 7: Another of the features, this time the Group 2 Millie Fox Stakes over 1300m for the fillies and mares. Looking at a couple of swoopers here at good prices in the form of *CIRCULAR* who is big overs at $19+ (LUXBET, BET365, CENTREBET) and PRIVATE SECRETARY at $12+ with CENTREBET. No idea why *CIRCULAR* is such odds after being arguably more impressive than several rivals here from the rear last time. Super price and will have to make a BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day. Surely the price doesn’t last. Then, PRIVATE SECRETARY, I for one haven’t been a follower up until now but can’t dismiss the top quality opposition she is normally up against and always competitive despite somewhat low percentage racing style, which usually needs luck. Hoping today is a day that swoopers may possibly even be advantaged. We’ll know by race 7. Main dangers DENMAGIC, IN HER TIME and EURO ANGEL but doesn’t end there. Another top race.
SUGGEST: *CIRCULAR* (EACH WAY) @ $19+, PRIVATE SECRETARY (EACH WAY) @ $12+, FIRST FOUR (2, 7, 9 / F / F / 8, 10) (CONFIDENCE 30%)
Race 8: Penultimate event is the Listed Parramatta Cup over 1900m. Very even and tricky affair, with queries on several key runners, such as RED EXCITEMENT on the expected wet ground, and RELIGIFY over 1900m on a wet track, hence have landed with the one I think bomb proof in terms of handling the conditions and trip best. The one in question is ALLERGIC @ $4.20+ (CENTREBET) and will improve from ‘okay’ return first up. Needs to bridge a decent gap (4.7L) on RELIGIFY however with a combination of 2.5kg swing, longer trip, second up and softer ground, I think he can. Main dangers the two mentioned who are still more than capable despite the queries, in RELIGIFY and RED EXCITEMENT but it doesn’t end there, all runners with legitimate claims, hence could be a FIELD candidate for the quaddie. Important to note, no third dividend.
SUGGEST: ALLERGIC (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $4.20+, FIRST FOUR (F / 1, 2, 3 / 1, 2, 3 / F), (1, 2 / F / 3 / F) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 9: We finish with a benchmark 93 over 1100m and I think Godolphin can make it a winning double to end the day with Allergic into **ALUCINARI** here first up at $5.50+ with UBET, LUXBET and CROWNBET. Another who hopefully will relish any advantage to backmarkers and shouldn’t have many issues with the conditions even if the heavens do open up later in the day. Happy to finish with a BEST VALUE bet of the day. Main dangers ZIGGY WILLIE, PRINCEFAMOUS and HIEROGLYPHICS.
SUGGEST: **ALUCINARI** (EACH WAY) @ $5.50+, FIRST FOUR (2, 4, 10 / F / F / 9) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Average odds $9.90+ per suggested runner!
** BEST VALUE **: KOORINGAL STAR @ $4.40+, ALUCINARI @ $5.50+
*BEST LONGSHOT*: DENY ALL CHARGES @ $41+, CIRCULAR @ $19+