SATURDAY FEBRUARY 4, 2016
Racing at ROYAL RANDWICK with the penetrometer reading 5.21, hence currently looking at a GOOD (4) surface.
RAIL: +6M (ENTIRE CIRCUIT). We head to ROYAL RANDWICK with the rail out +6M after being in the TRUE position, two weeks back. Expecting / hoping for an even track, pace dependant, however as usual, be sure to keep an eye on early races for best guide.
Race 1: We start with a benchmark 93 over 2000m and a very tough race to start the day, as illustrated by the fact that all runners are in single figures. We just missed with MONTAUK last week and don’t see any reason to jump off here at $3.30+ with SPORTSBET and LUXBET. Despite running three consecutive weeks and up in grade, don’t think this is much harder and gets handy 3kg reduction in the weights. Throw a blanket over the rest.
SUGGEST: MONTAUK (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $3.30+, FIRST FOUR (2, 6, 7 / 2, 6, 7 / F / 3), (2, 6, 7 / F / 2, 6, 7 / 3) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 2: Next is the Listed Lonhro Plate for the two year olds over 1100m. Disappointed with the scratching of MOLTEN as thought he was a great chance at a very juicy $15+. Don’t see any reason to jump off **EXCEEDS** @ $7+ (most operators) who was ultra-impressive last time after not necessarily having it perfect last time, but sprouted wings late. Happy to go again and make a BEST VALUE bet of the day. Also, want something on debutante CUBA @ $13+ with CROWNBET and UBET. Beat MOLTEN in trial and although I was leaning the other way, there wasn’t much between them and now gets upgraded on the back of the scratching. Main danger EDEN ROC who looks above average, however unders again given the link with Star Turn. Race doesn’t end there as you get with the two year olds, but looking to leave it there given current odds.
SUGGEST: **EXCEEDS** (EACH WAY) @ $7+, CUBA (EACH WAY) @ $13+, FIRST FOUR (4 / F / F / 8, 11) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 3: Next is an open handicap over the mile (1600m) and with SABINO SPEED out of the race, expecting RELIGIFY @ $3.10+ (UBET) to dictate terms here, kick and be extremely hard to catch. Not much between several others here, so happy to leave things simple in the small but decent field.
SUGGEST: RELIGIFY (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $3.10+ (CONFIDENCE 45%)
Race 4: Next is a benchmark 93 over 1000m and an intriguing race with several runners who normally are suited over longer sprint trips and a couple coming north from Victoria. And given current odds, that’s where I think best value lies with the two Victorians BULLPIT @ $14+ (PALMERBET, CENTREBET) and RUNSATI @ $11+ with PALMERBET, CROWNBET and BET365. Just don’t want them to go too crazy up front and may be a better move to take a sit instead of taking on the leaders as there are several potential leaders here. Main dangers DAL CIELO and AEGEAN SEA. Good, little race.
SUGGEST: BULLPIT (EACH WAY) @ $14+, RUNSATI (EACH WAY) @ $11+, FIRST FOUR (5, 7 / F / F / 6, 8) (CONFIDENCE 30%)
Race 5: Now for the Class 3 Highway Handicap over 1200m and I can’t split the two Dale runners here but unfortunately the bookies can’t either with SUPER STAR BOB at $4.40+ (LUXBET) and CLIPPER @ $4+ (LUXBET and BET365). Happy to play around the two on a WIN only basis and through multiples and/or early quaddies. Narrow finish in a big field, fingers crossed.
SUGGEST: SUPER STAR BOB (WIN) @ $4.40+, CLIPPER (WIN) @ $4+, FIRST FOUR (F / 6, 13 / 6, 13 / F) (CONFIDENCE 40%)
Race 6: Next is the Group 3 Eskimo Prince to be run over 1200m and this has become difficult after the shock scratching of OMEI SWORD who I was keen on, and looked a standout. As a result, top pick becomes BEZEL @ $3.80 (LUXBET) by default (was to be the main danger), even though I would have preferred a more positive trial, making me wonder whether the plan might be to get out over a longer trip this prep. Then, want something each way on BEST LONGSHOT of the day *MAN FROM UNCLE* who looks big overs at $34+ with SPORTSBET. Has done nothing wrong in short career and has been freshened for this shorter trip. Throw a blanket over the rest. COMIN’ THROUGH will find this too short, but I’m a big fan and is being set for the Randwick Guineas. Recommend throwing into longer term multies.
SUGGEST: BEZEL (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $3.80+, *MAN FROM UNCLE* (EACH WAY) @ $34+, FIRST FOUR (roving 3, 4, 8 / F) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 7: Now for the feature, the Group 2 China Horse Club Breeders Classic over 1200m. Like **EGYPTIAN SYMBOL** here at a very respectable $4.80+ with most operators. Last start on the Gold Coast was a forgive run, given how the track was “surprisingly” playing with leaders/on pacers majorly disadvantaged. Can bounce back here and given the price will make a BEST VALUE bet of the day. Main danger DANISH TWIST.
SUGGEST: **EGYPTIAN SYMBOL** (EACH WAY) @ $4.80+, FIRST FOUR (F / 3 / F / 4), (3 / F / F / 4) (CONFIDENCE 40%)
Race 8: Penultimate event is a benchmark 78 over the famous Randwick mile (1600m) and this is a very tough and open affair. Happy to stick with the Waller duo in the form of HOGMANAY @ $11+ (most operators) and LIAPARI @ $5+ also with most operators. It’s looked like HOGMANAY has been looking for the mile, which he finally gets here. Will need a touch of luck from the gate (10), but good each way price, to take that punt. Will go forward. Then, LIAPARI who was very unlucky last time and with even luck should be right in the finish. Very deep race, could be a very wide quaddie leg.
SUGGEST: HOGMANAY (EACH WAY) @ $11+, LIAPARI (EACH WAY) @ $5+, FIRST FOUR (F / 6, 8 / F / 6, 8) (CONFIDENCE 30%)
Race 9: We finish a benchmark 82 over 1400m and another very tricky race, hence a couple of tricky ones to finish the card. Tricky, with many resuming, and many not necessarily suited to the 1400m, however more than capable if wound up/ready. Happy to play a couple who excel at the trip in the form of GOT UNDERS at $17+ (most operators) and TOWER OF SONG @ $13+ also with most operators. Both going well and are arguably best at the trip. Given the better odds will make GOT UNDERS a BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day. Main dangers led by ROARING TO WIN and WE’RE SURE but doesn’t end there in a deep finish.
SUGGEST: *GOT UNDERS* (EACH WAY) @ $17+, TOWER OF SONG (EACH WAY) @ $13+, FIRST FOUR (6, 9 / F / F / 4, 5) (CONFIDENCE 30%)
Average odds $9.89+ per suggested runner!
** BEST VALUE **: EXCEEDS @ $7+, EGYPTIAN SYMBOL @ $4.80+
*BEST LONGSHOT*: MAN FROM UNCLE @ $34+, GOT UNDERS @ $17+