SATURDAY, FEBRUARY 4, 2016
Racing at CAULFIELD with more hot weather forecast and currently looking at a GOOD (4) surface, however would expect an upgrade to a GOOD (3).
RAIL: +9M (ENTIRE CIRCUIT). Racing at Caulfield with the rail out +9M. Given the hot weather forecast, you would normally expect no major disadvantage to be on pace, closer to the fence, however need to keep a close eye on wind, with northerly forecast, potentially change to north-westerly mid-afternoon, which may start affecting those leading/without cover. As always, be sure to keep a close eye on the track and how it’s playing in the early races for best guide.
Race 1: We start with a benchmark 84 for the fillies and mares over the mile (1600m). Tricky start, especially a distinct lack of pace on paper. In saying that, despite the lack of pace, going with the ‘best horse’ rule in the form of ZASORCERESS @ $2.40+ with CENTREBET. Hoping Lane is positive from the gate (9) and would love him to settle behind the leaders, or not far from. Given the price, suggest on a WIN only basis. Main dangers I’ll run with the two expected on pacers/leaders in the form of top weight MISS IT AND A BIT and HOT RUBY.
SUGGEST: ZASORCERESS (WIN) @ $2.50+, FIRST FOUR (1, 4 / 2 / F / F) (CONFIDENCE 45%)
Race 2: Next is a benchmark 84 over 2000m and again not a great deal of pace on paper, which leads me directly to **DODGING BULLETS** @ $5+ with most operators. In form, should get soft run and hopefully able to give a kick at the top of the straight and sneak a race winning lead. Just need to ensure there is no head wind to contend with early, cover in the side straight might be important. As a result, would love them to tuck behind the leader(s) and if so should give a great sight. At the price, happy to make a BEST VALUE bet of the day. Not a great deal between many others and happy to take on HURSLEY at a very short $1.95 with most operators.
SUGGEST: **DODGING BULLETS** (EACH WAY) @ $5+, FIRST FOUR (F / F / 3, 6, 7 / 2) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 3: Next is an open handicap over 2400m, and again not a great deal of pace on paper, but as we know that always has the risk of some over-compensation by jockeys. And in a small field, only takes 1-2 to complete change the complex of the race. Tricky race, very even, but have come out with ONCIDIUM RULER @ $4.60+ with LUXBET and UNIBET. Throw a blanket over the rest, pace / tactics set to be key.
SUGGEST: ONCIDIUM RULER (EACH WAY) @ $4.60+ (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 4: Now for the two year old Inglis Premier over 1200m. Plenty of guesswork with limited exposed form, however slight lean to ALICE ISLAND on debut for the Hayes/Dabernig yard at $10+ with most operators. Happy to simply play there on an each way basis, main dangers JUKEBOX and PERAST.
SUGGEST: ALICE ISLAND (EACH WAY) @ $10+, FIRST FOUR (1, 2 / F / F / 10), (F / 1, 2 / F / 10) (CONFIDENCE 25%)
Race 5: Next is another two year event, this time the Group 3 Chairman’s Stakes over 1000m. Top pick FORMALITY at $3.10+ (BET365) and no reason why she can’t get the job done well again, despite the jump in grade, following ultra-impressive debut. Primary play on a WIN only basis. Also want a secondary each way play on *PAGEANTRY* at a tidy $15+ with SPORTSBET. Looks great value and as a result, a BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day.
SUGGEST: FORMALITY (WIN) @ $3.10+, *PAGEANTRY* (EACH WAY) @ $15+, FIRST FOUR (F / 15 / F / 6) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 6: Benchmark 78 over 1100m. Tricky, even affair and have come out with DANUKI on top at $5+ with BET365 and CENTREBET. Is racing very consistently and gets in well here. Decent speed on paper, so just wouldn’t want to be getting into any speed battle. Also, want an each way play on CHIAVARI @ $12+ (UBET). We have been patient with this guy of late, always thereabouts but really needs to jump back into that winner’s stall. Is due and hopefully today is her day. Throw a blanket over the rest in a tough start to the quaddie, might throw a roving banker first four into the mix with CHAT TO MAGGIE in addition to the two above to help inject some value.
SUGGEST: DANUKI (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $5+, CHIAVARI (EACH WAY) @ $12+, FIRST FOUR (F / 3, 5 / F / 3, 5), (roving 3, 5, 10 / F) (CONFIDENCE 30%)
Race 7: Group 3 Manfred Stakes over 1200m and yet another very even affair. Have come out with **HEY DOC** on top here @ $5.50+ (LUXBET, UNIBET) who gets in extremely well at the weights, given the set weights and penalties conditions and a handicap rating of 100, with next best in the race 85, 82 and then down to 75! Level with some, only giving 2kg maximum to the rest. May be too short, but has won over the trip, and first up so given the strong weight situation happy to play with some confidence. Also, happy to make a BEST VALUE bet of the day. Also, want something on *LEGLESS VEUVE* @ $14+ (LUXBET, CENTREBET) who also gets in well at the weights (handicap rating 82) and interestingly they’ve elected for a crack at black type here, instead of last week’s Inglis Dash riches. Do think the extra 100m will suit better. At the price, happy to make a BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day, unfortunately on a day without any really juicy longshots. Not much between the rest in a tough start to the quaddie, best of the rest (value wise) BALLET MASTER and INSIDE AGENT, both musts for quaddies.
SUGGEST: **HEY DOC** (EACH WAY) @ $5.50+, *LEGLESS VEUVE* (EACH WAY) @ $14+, FIRST FOUR (F / 2, 5 / F / 2, 5), (4, 10 / F / F / 2, 5) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 8: Listed W.J Adams over 1000m and don’t see any reason to jump off LADY ESPRIT here at a respectable $6+ with CENTREBET. Mares winning are always worth following, however has the race fitness and importantly excels at the 1000m trip, while several others are more than capable but arguably better over the 11 or even 1200m. A perfect example of that is main danger FAATINAH who looks hard to beat and might well be too good, but will improve over longer trips, however the 3 wins from 3 first up starts is hard to ignore. Also, no reason why THERMAL CURRENT can’t go back to back so be sure to include in quaddies and multiples. Narrow quaddie leg after going wider first two.
SUGGEST: LADY ESPRIT (EACH WAY) @ $6+, FIRST FOUR (roving 1, 2, 8 / F), (1 / F / F / 2, 8) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 9: We finish with the Darren Gauci Farewell Handicap to be run over 1400m and wouldn’t it be great if LONGERON could get the chocolates here in Gauci’s farewell, and there’s no doubt about it, he’s a legitimate winning chance “IF” fit enough folr the first up run. Hasn’t won first up, however has run well in much better races than this. It simply comes down to fitness. Regardless, top pick is DUKE OF BRUNSWICK @ $2.60+ with most operators. Suggest a primary play on a WIN only basis. Then, want something on CHARLIE BOY @ $12+ (CENTREBET), now with the Maher stable, after good run first up on the Gold Coast. This boy is very good on his day, it’s all about predicting the ‘right’ day. Main danger LONGERON, and happy to go narrow again in the last leg of the quaddie after wider first two legs.
SUGGEST: DUKE OF BRUNSWICK (WIN - PRIMARY) @ $2.60+, CHARLIE BOY (EACH WAY – SECONDARY) @ $12+, FIRST FOUR (roving 1, 3, 5 / F), (F / 3 / F / 1, 3, 5) (CONFIDENCE 40%)
Average odds $7.48+ per suggested runner!
** BEST VALUE **: DODGING BULLETS @ $5+, HEY DOC @ $5.50+
*BEST LONGSHOTS*: PAGEANTRY @ $15+, LEGLESS VEUVE @ $14+