SATURDAY, FEBRUARY 11, 2016
Racing at CAULFIELD with more hot weather forecast and currently looking at a GOOD (4) surface, however would expect an upgrade to a GOOD (3).
RAIL: TRUE (ENTIRE CIRCUIT). Racing at Caulfield with back in the TRUE position after it was out +9M last week when the track favoured on pacers/those closer to the fence as we predicted. Back in the TRUE normally equates to the fairest conditions and as a result expecting a level playing field, pace dependant. As always, be sure to keep a close eye on the track and how it’s playing in the early races for best guide.
Race 1: We start with an open event over 1800m and for mine this looks quite straight forward. No reason to be jumping off HIPPARCHUS @ $3.30+ with LADBROKES, BOOKMAKERS.COM.AU and BETSTAR. My only query last time for the firm track, but no apparent issues, hence can only assume that won’t be an issue here. Is low flying and should have won past three with any luck. Then, want a secondary play on *PRIMA* @ $26+ with SPORTSBET. Always seems to be over the odds, makes own luck up front and more than worthy of an each way play at this level and a juicy price. Given the price, happy to make a BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day. Main danger SECOND BULLET.
SUGGEST: HIPPARCHUS (WIN / EACH WAY - PRIMARY) @ $3.30+, *PRIMA* (EACH WAY – SECONDARY) @ $26+, FIRST FOUR (F / 6 / F / 11), (3, 6, 11 / F) (CONFIDENCE 45%)
Race 2: Now for the first of eight group races taking us to the end of a cracking card, commencing with the Group 2 Autumn Stakes for the three year olds over 1400m. Tough race, with very little between most of these, as illustrated by the market with 7 of the 8 runners at single figure odds. Slight lean towards two here which I can’t split, hence happy to simply play both on WIN only basis’. The two in question are PEACOCK @ $7.50+ (BET365) and SNITZSON @ $5.50+. Throw a blanket over the rest.
SUGGEST: PEACOCK (WIN) @ $7.50+, SNITZSON (WIN) @ $5.50+, FIRST FOUR (F / 2, 4 / 2, 4 / F) (CONFIDENCE 30%)
Race 3: Next is the Group 2 Blue Diamond Prelude for the two year old fillies over 1100m. Good race, not easy and a bit of guesswork involved with several lightly raced young fillies. In saying that, CATCHY @ $3+ (LADBROKES, BOOKMAKERS.COM.AU, BETSTAR) has done nothing wrong and importantly adaptable to settle behind what looks decent pace up front. Primary play on a WIN only basis. Then, looking at a secondary play on *PANDEMONIUM* at $26+ (most operators) who can improve second up after being good on debut in a good race. Given the price happy to make a BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day. Main danger LIMESTONE. You’d expect the Blue Diamond picture to become clearer after this.
SUGGEST: CATCHY (WIN - PRIMARY) @ $3+, *PANDEMONIUM* (EACH WAY – SECONDARY) @ $26+, FIRST FOUR (roving 1, 3, 7 / F) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 4: Now for the colts and geldings equivalent, the Group 3 Blue Diamond Prelude over 1100m. And this is as tough as they come in what looks a super race. If the Blue Diamond picture isn’t a great deal clearer after the fillies, then it will most definitely be clearer after this. As always, striving for the best value, and as a result despite the faves all being right in this, looking at a couple at decent odds here in the form of CAN’T REMEMBER @ $26+ (LADBROKES, BOOKMAKERS.COM.AU and BETSTAR) and INDERNILE @ $18+ with LUXBET. Both have done very little wrong in short careers and look ready to run the races of their lives here, which would be needed to knock off the quality field assembled. Main dangers AZAZEL, PROPERTY, PARIAH and MARSUPIAL. But race doesn’t end there. Super race.
SUGGEST: CAN’T REMEMBER (EACH WAY) @ $26+, INDERNILE (EACH WAY) @ $18+, FIRST FOUR (1, 2, 4, 7 / 1, 2, 4, 6, 7, 8 / F / 6, 8), (roving 1, 6, 8 / F) (CONFIDENCE 25%)
Race 5: Next is the Group 3 Kevin Hayes Stakes for the three year old fillies over 1200m and unfortunately our girl doesn’t line up after disappointing in the Inglis Dash. A few weeks on the water walker in Euroa and then we’ll weight up some easier assignment as the better gallopers head to Sydney. In saying that, think the form from the race can hold up despite the bunched finish, with the unlucky FUHRYK @ $3.80+ (most operators), back up to a more suitable 1200m here. Had to overcome plenty of traffic down the straight and had to come to the inferior wider ground and absolutely flew once she saw daylight late. Primary play, ahead of one at odds who I think’s a good chance in the form of NAVAGIO @ $12+ (BET365) who was impressive in the opener down the straight that same day. Slower time clocked, but the track would have firmed up throughout the day given the wind around, and given a come from the rear win, you could argue the slower time only adds merit to the win. Main dangers JENNIFER LYNN, SPECIAL DIVA and SAVANNAH AMOUR.
SUGGEST: FUHRYK (WIN / EACH WAY - PRIMARY) @ $3.80+, NAVAGIO (EACH WAY - SECONDARY) @ $12+, FIRST FOUR (1, 7, 8 / 1, 5, 6, 7, 8 / F / 5, 6) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 6: Now for the Group 2 Rubiton Stakes over 1100m and a small, but cracking field assembled, led by the Grey Flash CHAUTAUQUA. Some super-fast gallopers engaged here and many legitimate winning chance. Slight lean at the odds with EL DIVINO @ $7+ with SPORTSBET after being unlucky last time for followers when Best Value of the day at Flemington and caught on the inside with no cover into a head wind, and still ‘just’ missed. As for the dangers, there are plenty but the main danger is the grey flash in CHAUTAUQUA. If back to best, then probably simply too good, but after a disappointing short campaign last time in, the jury is out until we see him fly again. Super race. No third dividend.
SUGGEST: EL DIVINO (EACH WAY) @ $7+, FIRST FOUR (1 / F / 7 / F), (F / 1 / 7 / F) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 7: Now for the feature, the Group 1 Orr Stakes and another simply cracking affair over 1400m. 9 of the 12 runners are previous Group 1 winners, which is a telling statistic. Pace, tactics, and how track is playing set to be key. Going with a couple here at odds in a very competitive affair. The two in question are ECUADOR @ $12+ (most operators) who we were on with big success last time with big weight, and PALENTINO @ $21+ with BET365 and LUXBET. Another who has been good to dungeon followers in the past (especially first run in town at a price) and loved what I saw in the yard last time, looks to be a much bigger and stronger individual. Main dangers BLACK HEART BART, MALAGUERRA and DIVINE PROPHET. Great race.
SUGGEST: ECUADOR (EACH WAY) @ $12+, PALENTINO (EACH WAY) @ $21+, FIRST FOUR (1, 4, 12 / 1, 4, 7, 8, 12 / F / 7, 8) (CONFIDENCE 30%)
Race 8: Penultimate event is the Group 3 Carlyon Stakes over the mile (1600m) and the great Darren Weir has a big hand here with key chances BURNING FRONT, TONAPAH, HUMIDOR and REAL LOVE. Would take a brave man/woman to take on the man, and every chance he runs the trifecta or even top 4. Expecting the money to come for HUMIDOR who caught the eye, amplified by Greg Miles cracking a “full mongrel” on the finish line as he flew up in the inside rail. However, what I noticed a little further wider was **REAL LOVE** @ $5.50+ (most operators), smashing the line over heels late in the same race. Happy to make a BEST VALUE bet of the day on an each way basis. Main dangers HUMIDOR, BURNING FRONT and if Weir is to get upstaged, I think it would be through GRANDE ROSSO.
SUGGEST: **REAL LOVE** (EACH WAY) @ $5.50+, TRIFECTA (boxed 2, 4, 6, 11), FIRST FOUR (boxed 2, 4, 6, 11), (2, 5, 6 / F / 2, 5, 6 / 11) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 9: We finish with the Group 3 Bellmaine Stakes for the mares over 1200m. Was weighing up both **SILENT SEDITION** and THAMES COURT, however have ended up with **SILENT SEDITION** @ $4.20+ (BET365) given the better draw (9 v 13). Rate this girl, goes well fresh and happy to make a BEST VALUE bet of the day. Then, want something on one at odds that we were on with success four back, haven’t been on since and hopefully jump back aboard at the right moment. The runner in question is LITTLE INDIAN at a juicy $21+ with BET365. Reckon it’s the right time to jump to 1200m and has past form around top pick **SILENT SEDITION**. Main dangers THAMES COURT (just needs some luck from the gate), DENPURR and AMERISTRALIA should they run here instead of Sydney.
SUGGEST: **SILENT SEDITION** (EACH WAY) @ $4.20+, LITTLE INDIAN (EACH WAY) @ $21+, FIRST FOUR (3, 6, 10 / 1, 3, 6, 10, 12 / F / 1, 12) (CONFIDENCE 40%)
Average odds $12.61+ per suggested runner!
** BEST VALUE **: REAL LOVE @ $5.50+, SILENT SEDITION @ $4.20+
*BEST LONGSHOTS*: PRIMA @ $26+, PANDEMONIUM @ $26+