11 March 2017 (Group 1 racing at Rosehill Gardens)

PUNTING DUNGEON

WWW.PUNTINGDUNGEON.COM.AU

ROSEHILL GARDENS

SATURDAY MARCH 11, 2016

 

Racing at ROSEHILL GARDENS another wet track. Penetrometer reading 5.71, meaning we find ourselves on an improving SOFT (7) surface.

RAIL: TRUE (ENTIRE CIRCUIT). We return to ROSEHILL with the rail back to the TRUE. Hoping for an even track, pace dependant, but expect them to be getting off the fence as the day progresses. Be sure to keep an eye on early races for best guide.

NOTE: While looking for the best prices with each suggestions, within each summary we have identified a very common trend in recent times. That is the fact that CENTREBET are really letting punters on and in most instances providing the best price available across the board. I strongly recommend signing up if you don't currently have an account and if you do probably time to reinvest. If you currently are not with them, please hit the link below and signup. If unsure, feel free to signup without depositing and just monitor throughout the day to ensure you agree and are comfortable before depositing. I've just made the move for obvious reasons:

Great odds being offered by CENTREBET so be sure to organise your account above and take advantage of the better value on offer.

Great odds being offered by CENTREBET so be sure to organise your account above and take advantage of the better value on offer.

 

Race 1: We start with a benchmark 89 over 1350m. Tricky start with fitness levels key with a couple first up and another second up. Slight lean EXTENSIBLE @ $3.10+ (LUXBET) at this trip, first up and handles the wet. No third dividend.

SUGGEST: EXTENSIBLE (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $3.10+ (CONFIDENCE 35%)

 

Race 2: Now for the first of seven group races on a cracking day of racing, commencing with the Group 3 over 1100m. Hoping for an early double for the lethal combination of Snowden/Shinn with DOTHRAKI here at $3.10+ with LUXBET and SPORTSBET. Has his share of weight, but that’s what happens when you’re the best in the race. ‘Best horse’ rule, super first up, ready to win second up. Keen!

SUGGEST: DOTHRAKI (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $3.10+ (CONFIDENCE 50%)

 

Race 3: Next is the Group 3 Pago Pago for the two year colts and geldings over 1200m and this is close to a raffle with plenty of guesswork. And unfortunately the bookies seem to have these sorted as you would expect with DUCIMIS and CONDOR HEROES, slightly ahead of SINGLE BULLET and then a bunch of legitimate chances on the next couple of lines of betting. I’m going with that man Shinn again (without his mates Peter and Paul Snowden on this occasion with the $700k purchase in DUCIMIS at $3.60+ with UBET. The track a query, but just don’t think the stable would take chances with this guy given the 2/2 100% record and as long as he handles the SOFT (7) should be right in the finish. Is a SNITZEL colt, hence assume he should be fine. Run down the straight was very good, given he got a bit lost (surviving a protest) and will prefer the bend here. Main dangers CONDOR HEROES and SINGLE BULLET, importantly Tim Clark has elected to ride CONDOR HEROES (rose SINGLE BULLET last time), so that could be a guide in itself. Doesn’t end there, but that will do for mine.

SUGGEST: DUCIMIS (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $3.60+, FIRST FOUR (roving 1, 2, 5 / F), (2, 5 / F / 1 / F) (CONFIDENCE 35%)

 

Race 4: Now for the fillies equivalent, in the Magic Night Stakes for the two year old fillies over 1200m. Very difficult, with similar guesswork involved with very little wet track experience for most. Slight lean TULIPS @ $4.60+ (UNIBET) after super run in the Blue Diamond running 4th. Track the query and new sire in Pierro, hence unknown, but Pierro handled it, hence hopefully the progeny do to. Also, want to play LA CHICA ROSA at a juicy $18+ with CENTREBET. Unlucky / poor ride in my opinion on debut, trialled well since and the gate (12) might not be the worst today, if they happen to be getting off the fence. Happy to play the two, main dangers EXCEEDS, SWEET DEAL, and LIMBO SOUL, but doesn’t end there. Tough race.

SUGGEST: TULIPS (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $4.60+, LA CHICA ROSA (EACH WAY) @ $18+, FIRST FOUR (2, 3, 4 / 1, 15 / F / 1, 15) (CONFIDENCE 30%)

 

Race 5: Now for the Group 3 Sky High over 2000m and it’s probably ANTONIO GIUESEPPE or wide open. He’ll be hard to beat and might simply be too good, however I think he is a touch vulnerable second up, straight up to 2000m, in better grade and on a soft track. If he was $4+ I’d be all over him, but at $1.90+ with most operators, I’d prefer to play through multies/one out early quaddie leg or similar. Instead, will run with better value in the form of stablemate WHO SHOT THEBARMAN at $8+ (SPORTSBET) who was super first up, heavy not an issue and gets in nicely at the weights compared with key rivals, dropping 2.5kg, while others only drop 1kg or even increase in weight, such as LASQUETI SPIRIT. Also, want a secondary longshot play on *GRAND MARSHAL* at $51+ (SPORTSBET) who will relish the going and the extra trip en route to the Sydney Cup. At the price happy to make a BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day. Main dangers ANTONIO GIUSEPPE, ahead of TAVAGO (be sure to multi Shinn up today, has a great book of rides) and MAGIC HURRICANE.

SUGGEST: WHO SHOT THEBARMAN (EACH WAY) @ $8+, *GRAND MARSHAL* (EACH WAY) @ $51+, FIRST FOUR (9 / F / F / 1, 4), (2, 3, 9 / 2, 3, 9 / F / 1, 4) (CONFIDENCE 30%)

 

Race 6: First leg of the main quaddie starts with the Group 2 Phar Lap Stakes for the three year olds over 1500m. FOXPLAY @ $2.05+ (UBET) gets in extremely well at the weights here given her rating of 98, next best FRENCH FERN at only 82 (at level weights) while the best of the boys is BEZEL at 78 (only three 70+) and they have to give the fillies 2kg. Only query is barrier (comes into 10 of 12), so just needs a touch of luck to ensure she gets cover and if she does, three wide should be fine. Keen, very hard to beat, good play on a WIN only basis. Good anchor for your multies and one-out first leg of the quaddie. Main dangers BEZEL, INTO ORBIT and COMIC SET.

SUGGEST: FOXPLAY (WIN) @ $2.05+, FIRST FOUR (2, 3, 6 / 9 / F / 2, 3, 6) (CONFIDENCE 65%)

 

Race 7: Now for the feature, the Group 1 Coolmore Classic for the fillies and mares over 1500m. OMEI SWORD was brilliant last time and looks the one to beat, but drawn horribly in 19 and as a result a risk in a very competitive race like this. Given that, I think DIXIE BLOSSOMS is the one to beat here, however I cannot resist the massive prices of several others here, hence am prepared to leave in multies/narrow quaddie leg and similar and play a few at silly prices. First is *SOLD FOR SONG* @ $101+ who worked home very well last time and not in the clearest room and is simply big overs here on the minimum (51kg) and a legitimate chance. Given the price happy to make a BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day. So is SHILLELAGH also on the bottom weight of 51kg and effectively a similar description, not quite 100/1 but $51+ with CENTREBET a good price. Then there are two who are simply good quality gallopers and shouldn’t be the prices they currently are. FIRST SEAL is the first of them and a mare of her quality simply shouldn’t be $41+ with CENTREBET. She is more than capable and has won two recent trials well. The other is ZANBAGH at $51+ with SPORTSBET, CROWNBET and CENTREBET. Is proven, more than capable and the wetter the better. Will be fitter for last run when well beaten by DIXIE BLOSSOMS. Main dangers DIXIE BLOSSOMS, OMEI SWORD, LA BELLA DIOSA and IN HER TIME. Incredible race, hence massive value if you can snag the winner, hopefully we’ve got the right spread. Going box the lot for a small % and hope as many of our 4 suggestions fill the first 4 slots.

SUGGEST: *SOLD FOR SONG* (EACH WAY) @ $101+, SHILLELAGH (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $51+, FIRST SEAL (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $41+, ZANBAGH (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $51+, FIRST FOUR (2, 3, 7, 14 / 2, 3, 7, 14 / 2, 3, 7, 14 / 1, 13, 18, 19), (boxed 1, 2, 3, 7, 13, 14, 18, 19) (CONFIDENCE 30%) 

 

Race 8: Penultimate event is the Group 2 Ajax Stakes over 1500m, the 7th and final group race of the day at Rosehill. Good race, but not easy with many legitimate chances. Slight lean on **AROD** here at $6.50+ with most operators. Liked the way he hit the line late and we’ve already seen he is more than capable at this level. Not greatly weighted, actually 1kg worse at the weight v TESTASHADOW for a 0.2L margin but I think this boy can improve here and be hard to beat. Actually, happy to make a BEST VALUE bet of the day. Also, can have a secondary play on IT’S SOMEWHAT at a juicy $15+ with CENTREBET. Throw a blanket over the rest, many legitimate chances.

SUGGEST: **AROD** (EACH WAY) @ $6.50+, IT’S SOMEWHAT (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $15+, FIRST FOUR (F / 1, 2 / F / 1, 2) (CONFIDENCE 35%) 

 

Race 9: We finish a big day with a benchmark 83 over 1900m which sound very anti-climactic given the preceding 7 races. Key here is how track is playing by race 9 and important what surface we are at by then with a couple here in particular vulnerable on a very soft track, but probably okay once we get to the better side of soft. The forecast looks fine, hence going to assume we might even be on a SOFT (6) by then and on this basis, have landed on **CAUTHEN’S POWER** on top at a juicy $9.50+ with LUXBET and CENTREBET. Great each way price, and happy to make another BEST VALUE bet of the day. Then a saving play on VELADERO @ $4.40+ (CENTREBET) on a WIN only basis. This run will get him to peak fitness for bigger races in the coming weeks.

SUGGEST: **CAUTHEN’S POWER** (EACH WAY) @ $9.50+, VELADERO (WIN) @ $4.40+ (CONFIDENCE 35%)

 

SUMMARY:

Average odds $23.30+ per suggested runner!

** BEST VALUE **: AROD @ $6.50+, CAUTHEN’S POWER @ $9.50+

*BEST LONGSHOT*: GRAND MARSHAL @ $51+, SOLD FOR SONG @ $101+

#happypunting